Area Forecast Discussion
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982 FXUS61 KPBZ 290752 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 352 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will ensure dry weather today before another low pressure system brings rain to the region late Thursday through Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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High pressure ridge building overhead will maintain dry conditions today and tonight. Thick stratus deck should diminish this morning once daytime mixing takes place, allowing us to warm close to, if not slightly above seasonal averages. Clear skies tonight, albeit not perfect for radiational cooling with some surface wind, should allow for us to cool off early. However, strengthening warm advection aloft should become a limiting factor as we go toward Thursday morning. Thus, a non- diurnal trend is forecast with lows close to seasonal averages.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure should keep the region dry through Thursday morning, with guidance trending even a bit slower with the arrival of precipitation. Still, will increase PoPs to likely by Thursday night as deep, moist, southerly flow in advance of the occluding low supports these values. Broad low pressure will slowly slide eastward through Friday, maintaining rain chances through much of the day. The weakening upper low will shift east by Saturday morning, but lingering low level moisture may keep widely scattered showers possible through the first part of the day before building subsidence brings an end to precipitation. Temperatures will continue to run slightly above seasonal averages through the period, including on Friday, despite rain with strong warm advection expected.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Very little change in the pattern is expected as model guidance continues to show a series of low pressure systems ejecting out of the southwestern CONUS and lifting toward the Ohio/Tennessee valleys. This will maintain at least chance PoPs through midweek outside of dry conditions expected Sunday. With some uncertainty in low track and speed, a blend of guidance was used. Temperatures will generally stay close to averages for early April.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Relative low level moisture behind exiting low pressure is expected to maintain the MVFR cigs this morning with IFR for a period over terminals mainly north of PIT. Building high pressure and dry advection will return VFR to all sites after daybreak. Outlook... Restrictions are likely again from late Thursday through Saturday as another broad low affects the Upper Ohio Valley.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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