Area Forecast Discussion
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528 FXUS61 KPBZ 280948 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 548 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Crossing low pressure will result in areawide showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The morning should remain relatively quiet, however, areas of fog across the region will result in localized areas where visibility will drop below 1/4 mile. No dense fog advisory has been issued as the vast majority of sites are reporting visibility of 1/2 mile or greater. Fog will begin to lift mid- morning. SFC low pressure over the midwest will track ENE across the southern Great Lakes today and overnight as an upper level ridge axis transitions east of the forecast area. Winds will become more southerly and ramp up moisture and warm air advection in the lower levels while temperatures cool in the mid/upper levels. Model CAPE values look to average between 1000 and 1500 J/kg by mid/late afternoon and the latest forecast consensus progs the associated warm front beginning to lift north over the area by late morning. Showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon as conditions become more unstable and convective temperatures are reached...with a slight risk of some becoming severe given forecast shear/buoyancy profiles. Shower/thunderstorm chances will continue through the evening as the associated cold front follows.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Dry conditions are largely expected on Monday with building high pressure, however, isolated showers cannot be ruled out across northern zones as an upper trough remains over the forecast area and a shortwave brushes by to the north. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The upper trough will remain the dominant feature through the end of the week with no major changes to the longwave pattern. This will result in periodic shower chances as shortwaves propagate within the flow. Temperatures will average near to a few degrees below seasonal levels. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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MVFR to IFR fog/stratus should continue early this morning for sites mainly S of I 80 as low level moisture increases with an encroaching sfc warm front. The fog/stratus should gradually lift as mixing and surface heating begin after sunrise. A shortwave is expected cross the area by this aftn pulling the warm front north, resulting in scattered thunderstorms. Maintained a VCTS mention until timing can be refined further. More storms developing ahead of an approaching cold front should result in additional showers/storms through the evening with MVFR and local IFR restrictions. .Outlook... Restrictions are possible Tue/Wed with an upper trough.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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