Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 141942 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 242 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will bring light snow to the region Monday and Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Quiet conditions will continue through tonight under high pressure. Despite some warming aloft, lows should still fall back into the single digits, though it will not be as cold as last night.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Next system dropping south out of Canada and across the Great Lakes will spread light snow across the region starting Monday afternoon through Monday night. Timing has improved, justifying some minor changes to PoPs, but light QPF and 13-15:1 snow ratios should hold snow amounts below advisory thresholds. System is rather progressive with just enough warm advection during the day Monday to moderate temperatures into the upper 20`s and lower 30`s before the cold front swings across the upper Ohio Valley Tuesday morning. Dry air will surge northeastward, ending snow chances from northwest to southeast toward morning Tuesday. Behind this system, there will be another shot of cold air. Expect little to no lake enhancement/upslope, as winds aloft remain southwest through most of Tuesday. Mid-level flow does shift to the northwest later Tues night as the trough axis passes overhead, but this should lend to no more than scattered snow showers with a rather shallow saturation in the snow growth zone. Temperatures will remain below average.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Upper trough will be replaced with zonal flow through the end of the week before a trough builds over the western CONUS. New runs of the deterministic models have a fast-moving system passing across the region on Friday, but have opted to not make any major forecast changes based on this. Deepening western CONUS trough will support a return of seasonal or above temperature for next weekend. Timing differences between model guidance supports to use of a model blend through the period.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A few areas of stratocumulus may create brief MVFR ceilings this afternoon at a few terminals. These clouds should fall apart by evening, leaving mainly clear sky and VFR. High clouds will begin to stream in tonight ahead of a clipper system. The clouds will thicken and lower with time on Monday, with some generally light snow arriving after 12Z. MVFR and possibly IFR restrictions will appear mainly across southeast Ohio prior to 18Z. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions will spread across the region by Monday night with another round of snow, with improvement by Tuesday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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