Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 030454 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1154 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cloudy skies and near normal temperatures will continue through the weekend. The next widespread chance for rain will be on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Late evening update to lower POPs across the I-80 corridor and northern ridges as flow has yet to turn toward the northwest. Lowered snow amounts a bit as well. Still may be patchy snow or freezing drizzle in the higher elevations where advisory was issued, and will leave for now. also adjusted hourly temperatures and dew points. Previous discussion follows. Winter Weather Advisory through the night in the high elevations of Preston, Tucker and Garrett Counties for freezing drizzle and melting/re-freezing light snow. This will run through 6am, but may be cancelled earlier as depth of moisture erodes and the shortwave trough pulls away. Elsewhere, winds will shift to the northwest in the wake of the trough axis passage, bringing a more favorable fetch off of Lake Erie and re-developing snow showers, mainly north of I-80. Any accumulation through daybreak is expected to be light. Did not go with anything higher than chance pops on Saturday north of Interstate 80 with only shallow moisture present. Overnight temperatures should be near normal around freezing with daytime temperatures slightly below normal in the mid to upper 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... With high pressure around on Saturday night, there should be a brief period of dry weather across the entire forecast area into Sunday morning. Split flow continues to result in a difficult precipitation forecast for Sunday afternoon and night. Have continued with chance pops everywhere, although Pittsburgh has the least chance of receiving any rain/snow with higher pops to both the north and south. Any precipitation will shift east by Monday, with high pressure once again bringing dry weather. Temperatures will remain near normal. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As low pressure moves northeast, precipitation will move into southern counties Monday night and everywhere Tuesday. The bulk of precipitation will move east by Tuesday night. Although precipitation is not expected to continue through the rest of the week, it`s hard to determine any particular time that will be dry, and have maintained low pops through the forecast. Timing of a strong cold front remains uncertain for late week, but at this point have gone with a high temperature forecast on Friday that keeps the entire region below freezing. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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MVFR cigs expected at all ports except ZZV through most of the period. Cig will begin to slowly lift from southwest to northeast during the afternoon, but it will take much of the day to clear the MVFR cigs south of FKL and DUJ. FKL and DUJ will remain MVFR for entire forecast period. Expect to see occasional gusts of 15 to 20kts, particularly as the afternoon approaches, and at FKL and DUJ. For current forecast, left out mention of precipitation as anything will be very light. .OUTLOOK... Ceiling restrictions are possible across northern ports through Saturday night in cold W-NW flow. Restrictions are possible late Sunday/Monday, and again Tuesday with low pressure.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday FOR MDZ001. OH...None. PA...None. WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday FOR WVZ510>514. && $$

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