Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 172043 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 343 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... While a cold front crossing the region will bring temperatures closer to normal on Wednesday, the entire 7 day forecast period will have above normal temperatures. The next time for widespread rain will be Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... The cold front is currently in progress moving across the region with a line of heavier showers shifting from west to east across the northern half of the forecast area. Rain will also continue across areas near Morgantown during the afternoon. Although conditions will temporarily dry out during the evening, an upper low will race across Ohio and Pennsylvania around sunrise. Have stuck with chance pops for that time period so far. Cannot rule out a lingering shower into Wednesday afternoon, but the bulk of any rain that develops will have moved east by then. Tonight`s low temperatures will actually remain slightly above normal high temperatures for mid January, with only a minimal rise in values on Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will move into the region from the southwest and allow for dry weather Wednesday night and Thursday before another low pressure system brings precipitation late Thursday night through Friday evening. While precipitation may start as snow from Pittsburgh north, current forecast keeps any accumulation less than an inch. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... An upper low will develop over the Southern Plains Saturday and slowly move up the East Coast through the extended forecast period. This system should bring rain to the region by Sunday and keep rain in the forecast through the rest of the forecast. Warm weather will continue, with temperatures between 10-15 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Restrictions are likely through the day as a frontal system continues to migrate across the region. Precipitation will be widely scattered outside of the vicinity of the crossing cold front and have timed frontal passage of TAFs based on latest radar trends and guidance. Lower cigs and rain chances will return early in the morning as the parent upper trough moves overhead. Not much improvement expected during the day on Wednesday with plenty of low level moisture trapped under the subsidence inversion. Conditions may improve by late afternoon as the boundary layer depth decreases. The LLWS threat will lessen tonight as winds decrease above the inversion. .OUTLOOK... Expect general VFR from late Wednesday until the next system moves in on Friday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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