Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 221905 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 305 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will provide cooler and drier conditions through the first half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Northwest fetch off Lake Erie is bringing slightly higher low- level moisture content inland and fueling a vigorous diurnal cu field from Cleveland to Latrobe. Earlier isolated showers along this axis have since subsided, with no real threat for re- development. The forecast will remain dry through the duration of the near term. High pressure creeping eastward will mean clear skies and calm winds overnight, which will allow for the coolest night in at least two weeks, with all locations dropping into the 50s and isolated areas dipping into the 40s. Center of the surface high shifts east of the area Tuesday, allowing weak southerly flow to return. This, combined with increased sunshine and building heights aloft, will mean highs several degrees above today`s marks. High temperatures will return back into the low to mid 80s for most. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Ridging will continue to build toward the area into the short term portion of the forecast, which should maintain subsidence over the area at least through Wednesday. Warming will occur progressively as a result with 850 mb temperatures increasing right along with an uptrend low level mixing such that high temperatures should increase toward the upper 80s by mid-week. Likewise, humidity will increase with dewpoints running up toward the lower 70s by Thursday. However, also by Thursday, the first short wave trough to overrun the ridge will likely be passing. The increase in instability concurrent with the trough passage will increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms as a result. In addition, while 850 mb temperatures will max out on Thursday, clouds and some showers will likely keep temperatures from getting too out of hand. Thus, upper 80s were again forecast for Thursday. Fries
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A sprawling upper level anti-cyclone will continue to reside over the central and southern Appalachians through the long term forecast. This will keep the polar jet well to the north of the US/Canada border and thus the vast majority of forcing for ascent there as well. The long term looks primarily dry and above normal as a result with only episodic very low chances of thunderstorms as weak short waves overtop the ridge. Fries
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will persist through the evening as high pressure dominates the region. Calm winds and clear skies will allow for fog development along the river valleys. Additional fog development could occur in some of the more favorable terminal locations of DUJ/ZZV. Calm surface winds overnight will gradually shift to light southerly winds Tuesday afternoon. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Restriction potential returns with the approach and passage of a cold front Thursday and Friday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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