Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 181843 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 243 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... SURFACE HIGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. MORE OF THE SAME FRIDAY. MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS TOWARD GARRETT COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A DRY START...WET MIDDLE...AND DRY END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD LOOK TO BE IN STORE WITH ONLY ONE RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE SYSTEM LOOKS POISED TO AFFECT THE AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD IS FAIRLY NARROW...WITH THE NAM REALLY THE ONLY SLOW OUTLYING MODEL...CONFIDENCE IN POPS AT LEAST AS HIGH AS LIKELY SEEMED HIGH ENOUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA TO UP POPS A BIT THERE. THIS WILL BE THE PORTION OF THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE IMPRESSIVE DPVA VALUES AS WELL AS THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS DO MANAGE TO GENERATED A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS COMBINED WITH 30 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. SUPPORT LOOKS FAR INSUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST. DRY AIR LOOKS TO QUICKLY RUN IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ENDING THE THREAT OF RAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOK TO SKYROCKET TOWARD 80F ON SATURDAY AS STRONG PRE-FRONTAL MIXING AND WARM ADVECTION LOOK TO OVERLAY THE FORECAST SIMULTANEOUSLY. THIS ALLOWS THE ROUGHLY +15C AT 850 MB TO MIX OUT RELATIVELY FULLY TO THE SURFACE. CONTINUING WARM ADVECTION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP AT NIGHT AS WELL. COOLER AIR FLOODS INTO THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO THE LONGER TERM FORECAST. FRIES
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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OVERALL DRY AND COOL PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MAINLY DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT ONLY PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND FOR NOW LEFT OUT OF TERMINALS. ANOTHER VFR DAY FRIDAY WITH DIURNAL CU. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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