Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 291146 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 746 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled but warm weather is expected through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Two shortwaves will cross the area today, one this morning and then a second this afternoon. This will keep in the threat for showers and storms through much of the day and will also help to drive the surface warm front to the north, thus destabilizing the atmosphere as the day progresses. The afternoon shortwave will ride right along the northward moving boundary and may provide a real shot at seeing stronger storms during the afternoon. With the warm front drifting northward today, there will be a wide range of temperatures from north to south. The north will remain in the cooler and less humid air, while the south, generally south of PIT, will see warm temperatures and rising humidity levels. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... Warm front will remain near the New York border through Sunday night as heights rise aloft. This looks to keep a cap on widespread activity Sunday. With a mid level ridge on Sunday much warmer and more humid conditions will develop. Ridge begins to break down Monday as an occluded storm system in the western Great Lakes pushes a cold front across the region, with showers and thunderstorms with FROPA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A closed low will eventually move across Southern Canada Tuesday and Wednesday. The surface reflection will move directly under the 500 low, keeping the chance for showers in the forecast. A cooler and unsettled pattern will continue into late week as a mean mid level trough remains across the ERN CONUS. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Immediate concern at the beginning of the 12Z TAF period is low level wind shear, with relatively light surface winds around a warm front and strong westerly winds aloft. Latest computer models suggest LLWS should have already come to an end, although observations including VAD wind profile and upper air balloon show these winds are still present. With models not much help in this case, have included LLWS in TAFs other than FKL/DUJ through 15Z, and will reevaluate situation with later observations. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move eastward along a slowly northward moving warm front today. This will mean they will start the day mainly from KPIT southward, then gradually transition northward toward KFKL/KDUJ after a gap through much of the morning. A fairly potent wave should transition down the front early in the afternoon, which will likely allow for the best chance of thunderstorms as it passes most sites during this interlude. As the warm front lifts north of the area Saturday evening, most sites will scatter out, however some stratus may linger around KFKL/KDUJ. .Outlook... Restrictions are possible through Sun in vicinity of a surface front. Restriction are likely with a strong cold front Sunday night and Monday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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