Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 032321 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 615 PM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An unsettled pattern will continue through the week, with precipitation expected Sunday night, Tuesday, and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will slowly settle overhead overnight, which should gradually decrease the northwesterly flow over most of the area. This will occur latest over the northeastern portions of the area along I-80, so low clouds and flurries will likely linger there the longest. Elsewhere, while low clouds may start to erode, mid and high clouds are already increasing from the southwest. Overcast skies are generally expected to continue areawide through the night as a result. Low temperatures were thus increased a bit across the board expect in the ridges, where steep low level lapse rates are already allowing some readings in the 20s. Fries && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Flow on Sunday night with incoming cold front does not appear to be as split as it has over the last few days, and with system better organized, had increased pops to likely in all locations. Considering temperatures on Sunday will have been slightly warmer than the last several days, precipitation will start as rain in most places, with any snow accumulation less than an inch. A lingering shower may last into Monday, but the rest of the day should be dry. Forecast for Monday night into Tuesday is becoming a bit more complicated. The last few runs of the GFS/ECMWF have been relatively consistent with timing of precipitation moving into the region, so have thrown out the NAM/SREF as fast outliers. Precipitation should move in from southwest to northeast. Warm temperatures aloft will melt any precipitation, but there is still some uncertainty as to how cold surface temperatures will be as precipitation begins. Have added freezing rain to the forecast in many locations, although confidence still remains low in how the pattern will develop and thus no mention was added in the hazardous weather outlook. Tuesday may end up being the warmest day of the week with temperatures in most locations rising into the 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Precipitation will decrease Tuesday night as low pressure moves to the east, with the next widespread chance for precipitation arriving on Thursday with a potent cold front. Behind the front, the coldest air of the season will move in for Friday and Saturday. Snow showers will continue in cold advection behind the front. && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MVFR ceilings lifting to VFR across southwestern ports late this evening. Improvements will likely stall out just north of PIT, where deeper moisture remains, leaving MVFR for northern ports and into LBE. All locations should see improvement to VFR through Sunday as high clouds replace all low ceilings. Winds will remain light overnight as surface high pressure settles into the area. Surface flow then organizes to light southerly flow Sunday, ahead of the next system. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions are likely with crossing low pressure systems during the first half of the new week. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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