Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 061917 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 317 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WHILE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY AS WIDESPREAD AS IT WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVING PICKED UP AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE...STEERING FLOW WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT...MEANING THAT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS ARE MOVING QUITE SLOWLY...GENERALLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR. WITH ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE GENERALLY RUNNING AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR...ANY FLOOD THREAT SHOULD PRIMARILY BE LIMITED TO URBAN AREAS. SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DROP IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH ALL LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO BE DRY BY SUNRISE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE QUITE WEAK WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY PRESENT...AND SPC HAS PUT NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS...TOMORROW WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE. THE PROJECTED HIGH IN PITTSBURGH IS 86 DEGREES...WHICH HAS NOT BEEN REACHED IN ABOUT 3 WEEKS...EVEN THOUGH THE NORMAL HIGH FOR THIS DATE IS 83 DEGREES. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...THE FRONT APPEARS LIKELY TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE A BIT MORE DISAGREEMENT ON THURSDAY. 12Z NAM HAS THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL FROM PITTSBURGH NORTH INTO NEW YORK...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS RAINFALL PRIMARILY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH INTO KENTUCKY. UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...WILL SIMPLY KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY. WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST IN RELATIVELY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES HARD TO TIME HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WPC PROGS WHICH SEEMED A GOOD COMPROMISE. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AN UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AOA 3KFT...HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE OBSERVED DURING HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. VFR OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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