Area Forecast Discussion
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449 FXUS61 KPBZ 291642 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1242 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A series of weather disturbances will keep showers in the forecast through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Stratus has largely lifted into broken cumulus south of a boundary that is laying basically along I-80. A weak wave will shift to the southeast toward evening. Hi-res/HRRR guidance all develop convection in SE Michigan by afternoon and intensify it a bit as it interacts with the lake breeze along Lake Erie by later afternoon. It continues southeast toward our area during the evening, likely weakening as it does so. Fries
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Very little change to the overall pattern, with zonal flow aloft and shortwaves riding eastward in the flow. The risk for showers and storms will continue through the entire weekend, with best timing linked to the passage of aforementioned waves. Continued humid with near seasonal daytime temperatures. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Appears to be enough low level moisture for low chance pops in the ridges Monday, otherwise a weak bubble of surface high pressure looks to bring warm temperatures with little chance for showers Tuesday and Wednesday. A frontal boundary may get close enough for chance POPs on Thursday. A modified Superblend was used for the extended period. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... IFR fog and stratus will impact terminals through mid-morning until increased mixing helps dissipate fog and lift the stratus deck. VFR conditions will return by the afternoon with minimal shower chances as forecast soundings show largely stable conditions. Precipitation chances will increase tonight ahead of an approaching shortwave. .OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Broad upper troughing should maintain periodic shower and thunderstorm restriction potential through Monday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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