Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 151418 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1018 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A CROSSING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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CIRRUS AND PERHAPS SOME MID DECK WILL ARRIVE ACROSS NW PA LATE DAY OTHERWISE SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS MID 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 FAR SOUTH. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE QUICKLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION LATE EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE EXITING EAST TUES MORNING WITH DRY QUICKLY MOVING IN ALOFT. EXPECTING MOST POP CHANCES TO CEASE BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR WEST...BUT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE RIDGES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS. BY LATE TUES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS SLACKEN TO NEAR CALM. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERTOP EARLY WEDS WILL ENSURE A DRY MIDWEEK...DESPITE ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STREAMING THROUGH THE ERN GREAT LAKES. TAX && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... DESPITE BROAD UPPER TROF IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A SFC HIGH WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY OOZES EAST THROUGH SAT WITH A FRONT MOVING IN BY SUN EVENING. STRONG AGREEMENT ACROSS GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE EARLY EVOLUTION AND STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ATTM. WILL CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR TIMING PURPOSES. TAX && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LIMITED IFR TO MVFR FOG WILL LIFT BY 14Z...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN MVFR IN SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS LATE EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTS. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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