Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 250204 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1004 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A muggy night as the mercury only falls back to around 70. A cold front in name only passes Monday afternoon bringing the chance of a downpour. Dry for mid week, however above normal temperatures are forecast to continue. Another cold front will cross in the late Thursday - Friday time frame. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 10pm, all precipitation has left the region. Have added overnight fog to the forecast in river valleys from Pittsburgh to the north, considering that was the general area that saw heavier rainfall earlier this afternoon. Light winds overnight will also allow for fog formation, although high clouds could prove to be a limiting factor. Dry conditions are expected into the early morning hours, although the HRRR/RAP are a bit faster bringing precipitation back to the region compared to other models, showing that rain could reach northwestern counties before sunrise. Except for ridge locations, temperatures are not expected to drop much below 70 tonight. A cold front will cross the region Monday afternoon on the periphery of the mid level anticyclone. This will end the short heat wave across the area as clouds and timing of the showers should hold temps in the 80s. Much the case today, ample energy to tap for storms, especially when morning cap erodes. Best chance for any severe storm will be south of DUJ to PIT to ZZV line at this juncture. Wet microbursts are possible given a water loaded sounding. PWATS north of two inches once again support brief heavy rain. As for a flash flooding threat, the jury is still out given storms will be moving and training does not appear to be an issue. The best timing for storms will be late morning to midday hours in Ohio and mid to late afternoon for PA/WV/MD. Temps were constructed using the Bias-Corrected Raw Blend given recent performance. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The baroclinic zone will be east of the region Monday night. In its wake lower dewpoints will return, however daytime highs will remain above normal with widespread mid and upper 80s forecast. Any residual fog from the previous day rain will scour out by late Tuesday morning. Dry weather takes command through the balance of the short term. Zonal flow aloft and a area of high pressure traversing through the Great Lakes are the culprits for the stretch of zero precip days. H8 temps slowly increase 1-2C during this period so for the most part daytime highs will be mirrors of each other. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Highlights: - Continued above normal temperatures - Best shot at rain arrives Thursday night into Friday Overall no real change to synoptic pattern for much of the week as a broad H5 anticyclone dominates the southern 2/3rds of the CONUS. Our mid level height values will fall a few decameters, but not enough to usher in temps where they should be for this time of year. Based on H8 temps progs...do not see a stretch of 90F+ weather like this weekend. However, would not be surprised for eastern Ohio to be right around 90F for daytime highs most of the week. Baroclinic zone that crosses Monday night weakens and washes out over the central Appalachians Tuesday as flow become parallel to the boundary and it encounters increased subsidence. In its wake, slightly cooler weather than what we have experienced takes hold for mid week. By weeks end, another shortwave trough traverses the region sweeping a cold front through. Timing differences reside with ECMWF and GEFS, but ECMWF keeps the recent summer trend going of shortwaves passing outside peak heating hours. GFS opts for a Friday afternoon passage. Either way, the next shot of widespread precipitation appears to be Thursday night into Friday. Zonal flow re-establishes for the weekend with temperatures near the climo average of lower to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Although the forecast calls for VFR conditions overnight except for MVFR fog at FKL/DUJ, this forecast may turn out to be too optimistic. Am unsure as to just how widespread fog may be at other terminals overnight considering heavier rainfall that occurred today, especially along the BVI-PIT-AGC corridor. In addition, DUJ has had a couple hours of LIFR stratus, and although the forecast calls for this to eventually scatter out, this is not a high confidence forecast either. A cold front will cross the region on Monday, and although widespread restrictions are not expected with the front, any heavier showers/thunderstorms will have the potential to bring restrictions. .OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... After the passage of the cold front Monday night, no widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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