Area Forecast Discussion
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186 FXUS61 KPBZ 270825 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 325 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Rain chances return today with a crossing warm front. A series of disturbances will keep periodic rain in the forecast through mid week until the passage of a cold front returns wintry weather for the last half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Clouds should continue to increase early this morning ahead of an approaching shortwave. This wave and an approaching warm front should result in increasing light rain chances later this morning and afternoon. The precip could start as light snow before temps warm. Increased POPs to likely for a brief time south of I 70 where the best moisture and upper support is progged, with chance POPs maintained further N. Temperatures are expected to average 5-10 degrees above seasonal levels.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Precip chances should end this evening as the shortwave exits and the warm front lifts N of the area. The region is progged to be in the warm sector in SW flow ahead of a trough advancing ewd from the Western CONUS. Several shortwaves and increasing low level jet support are progged to cross the area with periodic showers expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. There is a chance of thunderstorms Tuesday night with elevated instability and increasing shear. The western trough is progged to approach the Great Lakes region Wednesday as an associated surface low tracks from the Midwest into Southern Ontario. Increasing speed and directional shear is progged through the day as the low`s associated cold front approaches. 500mb winds approaching 100kt on both NAM and GFS model soundings is indicative of the strong jet progged over the area. Severe thunderstorms are possible if enough instability develops during the day. This will be monitored over the next couple of days, but will be included in the hazardous weather outlook. Broad upper troughing is expected over the area Wednesday night and Thursday, along with eventual lake and terrain enhancement in cold advection. This should keep snow showers chances in the forecast. Temperatures are expected to be 20 to 25 degrees above average Tue and Wed, returning to near or below seasonal levels Thursday.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Broad upper troughing is expected to continue through late week, with a reinforcing crossing shortwave/surface low with some snow Thursday night and Friday. General zonal flow is progged by the weekend as the trough exits, with mainly dry conditions and moderating temperatures.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR can be expected through daybreak although mid and high cloudiness will increase from the southwest as a shortwave trough approaches. That disturbance is forecast to generate some light rain and snow at ZZV and MGW this morning, with light showers lingering along a northward-developing warm front through the day. MVFR cloudiness under the crossing shortwave has been limited to ports south of PIT given low level moisture expectations with the better chance of precip, but have also introd cloud-restrictions for FKL and DUJ during the eve given front-placement expectations. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions are likely again by Tuesday morning as precip develops with another shortwave in strengthening wsw flow. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 07/15

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