Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 290808
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
408 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017
Unsettled but warm weather is expected through the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Two shortwaves will cross the area today, one this morning and
then a second this afternoon. This will keep in the threat for
showers and storms through much of the day and will also help to
drive the surface warm front to the north, thus destabilizing
the atmosphere as the day progresses. The afternoon shortwave
will ride right along the northward moving boundary and may
provide a real shot at seeing stronger storms during the
With the warm front drifting northward today, there will be a
wide range of temperatures from north to south. The north will
remain in the cooler and less humid air, while the south,
generally south of PIT, will see warm temperatures and rising
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Warm front will remain near the New York border through Sunday
night as heights rise aloft. This looks to keep a cap on
widespread activity Sunday. With a mid level ridge on Sunday
much warmer and more humid conditions will develop. Ridge begins
to break down Monday as an occluded storm system in the western
Great Lakes pushes a cold front across the region, with showers
and thunderstorms with FROPA.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A closed low will eventually move across Southern Canada
Tuesday and Wednesday. The surface reflection will move directly
under the 500 low, keeping the chance for showers in the
forecast. A cooler and unsettled pattern will continue into
late week as a mean mid level trough remains across the ERN
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Periodic condition deterioration to MVFR/local IFR is expected
later this evening and overnight as a cluster of showers and
thunderstorms move along an approaching warm front. Low level
jet and shortwave support should result in additional
showers/thunderstorms overnight through early Saturday morning.
Scattered showers/storms are possible through the day Saturday
as the front stalls in the vicinity, though better upper support
is progged to shift N of the area. Will mention VCSH in the
TAFs for now. A period of MVFR ceilings are expected by Sat
morning also, with improvement from S-N by afternoon.
Restrictions are possible through Sun in vicinity of a surface
front. Restriction are likely with a strong cold front Sunday
night and Monday.