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124 FXUS61 KPBZ 191143 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 743 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Showers and thunderstorms are expected with the encroachment of an upper trough today.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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The post-dawn update included adjustments to near term POPs as per the latest radar and high res model trends. Convective activity over Ohio is expected to continue weakening given a lack of any supporting inflow and surface based instability. Isolated, to minimally scattered POP number should suffice for morning coverage. Boundary layer moisture and heating should rapidly destabilize the airmass over the region though, and redevelopment should be expected with the encroachment of the relatively deep shortwave trough by afternoon. A marginal severe risk remains, with inhibition via a lack of overall instability despite a decent mid level thermal trough.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Showers and storms are projected to exit with the supporting shortwave by evening. Dry and cool advection with subsidence will support quiet and comfortable conditions through Sunday. Warm, moist advection with flat ridging in advance of a midwestern shortwave as per the latest model solutions indicate increased humidity with a rapid temperature moderation above the averages for Monday.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The aforementioned midwest trough/associated front are likely to provide the next precip chance by Tuesday night. Eastern CONUS troughing are then forecast to support temperatures a few degrees under the averages for the remainder of the week.
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&& .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected through the morning. Thunderstorm chances are expected to increase through the afternoon with the approach and passage of a shortwave trough. Will maintain a VCTS/tempo TS mention in the tafs. VFR should return by evening under building high pressure. Surface flow will generally remain from the west at 10kts with occasional gusts to 15kts. .Outlook... Widespread restriction potential returns with a late Tue/early Wed cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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