Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 070538 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1238 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A Thursday cold front will return snow shower chances and much colder temperatures for the end of the week and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Extended period of drizzle mainly east of Pittsburgh for a few hours, but no major changes to the overnight forecast otherwise. Some patchy freezing drizzle is still possible leading up to sunrise, especially in the higher elevations. Clouds may begin to break a bit in southeast Ohio towards 12Z. Temperatures updated with a hi-res guidance blend. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Lingering low level moisture over the eastern zones may cause light precipitation early Wednesday. Otherwise, dry weather is forecast for as surface high pressure builds across the region briefly. The next cold front is still expected to cross on Thursday, bringing the coldest air of the season so far. Have increased PoPs for snow showers behind the front in the developing mid-level trough. Latest guidance shows favorable lake enhancement snow to develop mostly over the the north for a short period of time. After the initial onslaught of the cold front and blustery snow showers late Thursday, inversion heights will gradually lower and decrease the snow accumulation rate by late Friday. Nonetheless, stagnant low level moisture and lowering dendritic growth zone is expected to keep snow chances lasting through the start of the weekend, especially over the higher terrain. Temperatures will lower to below normal values by the end of the period and wind chill values are expected to decrease to near single digits. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The cold-supporting upper trough over the Eastern CONUS is progged to fill rapidly early next week as another low develops toward the Great Lakes. Flow over the Upper Ohio will thus deamplify and temperature moderate back toward the seasonal averages. Best precip chances look to be on Sunday night and into Monday as that Great Lakes low drags a front across the region. With the low-center forecast well north of the region, precip timing will depend on eventual frontal progress. Superblend guidance was used for long term forecast construction. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Widespread IFR/LIFR ceilings will slowly improve overnight, as moisture trapped in the low levels starts to be eroded as winds shift to the west, with some gusts. Past sunrise, ceilings will improve through MVFR to VFR with time as high pressure builds in from the southwest. Mainly just mid/high clouds are expected to be in place by the end of the TAF period. .OUTLOOK... Periodic restrictions are likely for the rest of the week as a strong cold front sweeps the region.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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