Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 190240 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 940 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions are largely expected until the next frontal system crosses the region Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday. Well above normal temperatures are expected through the end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... A relatively mild night in store across the region after the record temperatures observed this afternoon and increasing cloud coverage limits radiational cooling. See the climate section for more details on today`s records. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Strong ridging builds in the wake of the departing low through this period, with 500mb heights approaching 576dam by Monday night/Tuesday. With nearly clear skies and warm advection, expect the continuation of very warm temperatures through Tuesday, before a cold front approaches Tuesday afternoon/night. Deterministic guidance continues to struggle with the timing of the front for Tuesday. Have opted to hold the likely PoPs but adjusted the timing based on a model blend for now, as it appears the GFS may be just a tad past with the boundary passage. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Long term continues to highlight an above-average temperature trend, as has been suggested by long-range guidance. Despite the passage of the front Tuesday night, mid-level ridging will quickly build back over the eastern CONUS as the trough amplifies over the southwestern US and then ejects into the central Plains by the end of period. Model guidance appears to be handling the overall trends in the upper level pattern well, with only minor differences in timing and evolution of the system for the end of the week. Thus, will stay close to a blend of solutions with tweaks made to temperatures as the Superblend tends to dampen anomalous values in the extended. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions prevailing with southwest winds diminishing to 5-8 kts this evening. Clouds will increase with only a few sprinkles expected at KMGW as a weak mid level circulation shears out across the Mid-Atlantic states. Weak cool advection looks to produce a period of MVFR stratus at most ports late night into early Sunday. .OUTLOOK... The next chance for widespread restrictions will be with a Tuesday cold front. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures February 18: TODAY PREVIOUS RECORD Pittsburgh, PA 68 66 (2011) Zanesville, OH 69 64 (2011/1994) DuBois, PA 64 57 (1981) Wheeling, WV 68 60 (2008) New Philadelphia,OH 69 62 (1961) && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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