Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 241758 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 158 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A muggy night as the mercury only falls back to around 70. A cold front in name only passes Monday afternoon bringing the chance of a downpour. Dry for mid week, however above normal temperatures are forecast to continue. Another cold front will cross in the late Thursday - Friday time frame.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MCV has held together through the morning hours over northern Ohio and continues to move east. It will encounter more stable air over northwestern PA given the presence of lower surface dewpoints. Development on the southeastern flank is what we will be monitoring for the afternoon and evening hours. A line of showers and storms is still expected to move through areas along and north of I-76, lower confidence in locations over eastern OH, northern WV, and western MD. Given the freezing level is around 15kft. Wet microbursts are the primary threat along with downpours as PWATS surge above two inches this afternoon. Thankfully it does not appear training will be an issue, so urban flooding is the mode we are anticipating. With the line of showers and storms out of the area by 0Z, look for quiet but muggy conditions with overnight lows around 70. A cold front will cross the region Monday afternoon on the periphery of the mid level anticyclone. This will end the short heat wave across the area as clouds and timing of the showers should hold temps in the 80s. Much the case today, ample energy to tap for storms, especially when morning cap erodes. Best chance for any severe storm will be south of DUJ to PIT to ZZV line at this juncture. Wet microbursts are possible given a water loaded sounding. PWATS north of two inches once again support brief heavy rain. As for a flash flooding threat, the jury is still out given storms will be moving and training does not appear to be an issue. The best timing for storms will be late morning to midday hours in Ohio and mid to late afternoon for PA/WV/MD. Temps were constructed using the Bias-Corrected Raw Blend given recent performance.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The baroclinic zone will be east of the region Monday night. In its wake lower dewpoints will return, however daytime highs will remain above normal with widespread mid and upper 80s forecast. Any residual fog from the previous day rain will scour out by late Tuesday morning. Dry weather takes command through the balance of the short term. Zonal flow aloft and a area of high pressure traversing through the Great Lakes are the culprits for the stretch of zero precip days. H8 temps slowly increase 1-2C during this period so for the most part daytime highs will be mirrors of each other.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Highlights: - Continued above normal temperatures - Best shot at rain arrives Thursday night into Friday Overall no real change to synoptic pattern for much of the week as a broad H5 anticyclone dominates the southern 2/3rds of the CONUS. Our mid level height values will fall a few decameters, but not enough to usher in temps where they should be for this time of year. Based on H8 temps progs...do not see a stretch of 90F+ weather like this weekend. However, would not be surprised for eastern Ohio to be right around 90F for daytime highs most of the week. Baroclinic zone that crosses Monday night weakens and washes out over the central Appalachians Tuesday as flow become parallel to the boundary and it encounters increased subsidence. In its wake, slightly cooler weather than what we have experienced takes hold for mid week. By weeks end, another shortwave trough traverses the region sweeping a cold front through. Timing differences reside with ECMWF and GEFS, but ECMWF keeps the recent summer trend going of shortwaves passing outside peak heating hours. GFS opts for a Friday afternoon passage. Either way, the next shot of widespread precipitation appears to be Thursday night into Friday. Zonal flow re-establishes for the weekend with temperatures near the climo average of lower to mid 80s. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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MCV will slide along a lifting warm front and instability axis through the afternoon. Will continue to carry the VCTS mention at all terminals through the afternoon as this system and any additional convection slides across the upper Ohio valley. Have added TEMPO groups where the highest confidence in thunder and brief restrictions will occur. With plenty of instability but little shear, some stronger storms may develop which could lead to wind gusts approaching 40kts+. Will not emphasize this at any terminal for now. Latest hi res model guidance has the thunderstorm complex east of the region by 00z. Behind it, some MVFR cigs or vsbys may be possible. With greater confidence in restrctions north, will keep mention at KFKL and KDUJ. .OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Restrictions will be possible Monday with the approach and passage of a weak cold front.
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&& .CLIMATE... Hot temperatures across the region today may approach record levels at some sites. Here are a few selected records and forecasts... Site Forecast Record Year Pittsburgh Int`l Airport 94 98 1934 New Philadelphia 97 94 1999 Morgantown 95 93 1987 Zanesville 96 95 1999 && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR OHZ039>041- 048>050-057>059-068-069. PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR PAZ020-021-029- 031-073-075. WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR WVZ001>004-012- 021-509. && $$ synopsis...98 near term...98 short term...98 long term...98 aviation...34 climate...fries

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