Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 021132 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 732 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A CROSSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAINTAIN STABILITY AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH TODAY...ALTHOUGH AS CROSSING SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD SOME MID AND UPR CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA. THAT DISTURBANCE MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS OVER AREAS SOUTH OF I 70 DUE TO PRESENCE OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL WV EARLY THIS MORNING. FILTERED INSOLATION AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION ON LIGHT NORTH WIND SHOULD LIMIT TEMPS TO A FEW DEGREES UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVANCING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE ON FRIDAY...WITH GFS AND SREFS AGAIN PROGGING MORE EXTENSIVE PRECIP PROBABILITIES ALTHOUGH NAM AGAIN PROJECTS LIKELY NUMBERS OVER THE WV RIDGES. ANY PRECIP WOULD DIMINISH WITH SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE SUPPORTING DISTURBANCE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND POPS HAVE BEEN THUS CONSTRUCTED. LOW...DIURNALLY SUPPORTED POPS ARE APPROPRIATE FOR SATURDAY WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE GFS/NAM PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA WHILE ALL BUT SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE DRY ON SUNDAY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS PATTERN ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST UNDER THE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH FURTHER RECOVERY IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY SHOULD HEIGHTS RISE AS PROJECTED. EITHER WAY...FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR SHORT TERM TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE BROAD SCALE FEATURES OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SEEMINGLY-PERMANENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR ONE MORE DAY AND ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE THE REGION SHOULD BE DRY. THE PROGGED COLD FRONT THAT PREVIOUSLY HAD WIDELY VARYING PROJECTED TIMES FOR PASSAGE NOW HAS SOME AGREEMENT FROM DETERMINISTIC AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE MODELS OF A TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PASSAGE. HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES THOSE TWO DAYS. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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LOCAL FOG THIS MORNING SHOULD CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WITH FEW CLOUDS...THINK THAT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIKELY. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE HOW LOW VISIBILITIES AND CIGS WILL GO...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. FOR NOW...OPTED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE. WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY MORNING...AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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