Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 212049 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 449 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE INITIALLY COLD TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A STRONG CDFNT WL COMPLETE A SWEEP OF THE UPR OH REGION BY EARLY EVE WITH DRY AIR ENCROACHMENT AND STRONG SHEAR INHIBITIING UPDRAFTS FOR TSTMS. COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WL INTIALLY SPPRT SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS VIA A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MIXING LVL...BUT BY MONDAY DAYBREAK...PROJECTED INVERSION LVLS ARE LOW ENUF DESPITE UPR TROFG TO ELIMINATE POPS AND DOWNWARD TREND WAS THUS ADJUSTED. NEVERTHELESS...THE COLD FLOW OFF THE LAKES WL MAINTAIN AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU BLANKET ON MONDAY AND TEMPS WL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE MID/UPR TROUGH IF PROJECTED TO LIFT OUT QUICKLY AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD WITH BROAD RIDGING ENSUING OVR MUCH OF THE CONUS. THE COLD START TO THE WEEK WITH THUS BE GRADUALLY MODERATED BY WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS WERE FORECAST USING GFS MOS...ALTHOUGH TWEAKS FOR A GREATER DIURNAL RANGE IN THE DRY AIRMASS WERE INCLUDED.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONT WARMING ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVGS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR RIDGE EXPANDS. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF CONTS TO HINT AT A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...THAT SOLN IS AGAIN OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS...AND PERSISTENCE IN A DRY FORECAST MUST RULE UNDR THE ANTICIPATED RIDGE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
COLD ADVCTN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WL PROMOTE DVLPMT OF A STRATOCU DECK AS THE EVE PROGRESSES. THAT BLANKET IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT MVFR LVLS INTO MONDAY AFTN. ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED AS THE UPR LOW DIGS OVR THE REGION...BUT INVERSION LVLS LK SUFFICIENTLY LOW BY MONDAY DAYBREAK TO SUPPRESS FURTHER PCPN. OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... GENL VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.