Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 191803 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 103 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm conditions will continue until a frontal system crosses the region Tuesday night. Well above normal temperatures are expected through the end of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... For the afternoon update stratus looks to hang on across I-70 corridor and south into the afternoon before dissipating. Adjusted hourly temperatures down where stratus is more entrenched but still think previous forecast max temperatures will be reachable. Previous discussion follows. Adjusted sky grids for stratus closer to satellite and surface observations for the morning update. Still expect stratus mainly across the south and ridges to mix out by afternoon with at least partly sunny skies. Temperatures will remain well above average with afternoon sunshine. Clear skies and building high pressure will allow for chilly temperatures overnight, but still above the seasonal norms. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Strong ridging builds in the wake of the departing low through this period, with 500mb heights approaching 576dam by Tuesday morning. With nearly clear skies and warm advection, expect the continuation of very warm temperatures through Tuesday, before a cold front approaches Tuesday afternoon/night. With such a strong ridge in place over the east, have slowed the onset of showers from previous forecast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Long term continues to highlight an above-average temperature trend, as has been suggested by long-range guidance. Despite the passage of the front Tuesday night, mid-level ridging will quickly build back over the eastern CONUS as the trough amplifies over the southwestern US and then ejects into the central Plains by the end of period. Looks like a return to more normal temperatures by the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 18Z, MVFR stratus continues to impact KZZV and KMGW, but stratus should sink south in the next two hours. After that, VFR conditions will occur at all terminals. Model guidance hints that there could be additional MVFR restrictions overnight, but am not convinced that there will be enough low-level moisture. For now, have generally stuck with a mention of scattered MVFR clouds, although even if clouds remain scattered, winds may be light enough to allow fog to develop. Have not put any restrictions in the forecast yet. West winds around 10 kt this afternoon will lighten and veer to the northwest overnight. .OUTLOOK... The next chance for widespread restrictions will be with a Tuesday cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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