Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 251338 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 938 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather most of today. Unsettled but warm weather is expected for the second half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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No major changes to the forecast at this time. The 12Z soundings show a decent amount of capping which should prevent convective development across much of the area. The exception remains southeast Ohio, where enough moisture will arrive this afternoon to perhaps allow for isolated showers or thunderstorms. High temperatures are on track as well. CL Previous... Ridging should maintain dry weather most of today. Slight to low chances for showers and thunderstorms should return toward evening for areas west of the PA/OH border as a weak shortwave approaches. Temperatures are expected to average around 10 degrees above seasonal levels.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... The weak shortwave is progged to complete it`s passage across the region tonight, with shower chances continuing. A few early evening thunderstorms are possible with marginal instability across Ohio. Another weak crossing shortwave Thursday should maintain shower and thunderstorm chances across the area. Moisture and instability should continue to increase in southwest flow through Saturday on the western periphery of an eastern CONUS ridge. With a lack of significant shortwave support, expect mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. The warming trend should continue, with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels expected using the latest GFS MOS and consensus guidance. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Ensemble progs indicate the east coast ridging should persist through early next week. A relatively moist and unstable airmass in place should result in daily, mainly diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm chances through the period. Temperatures should continue averaging 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels. Used edited Superblend guidance for the long term period to account for uncertainty and to smooth out day to day operational model differences. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR can be expected through today, but there is a chance for degradation by tonight as a weak disturbance supports scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Have addressed this with a "vicinity shower" mention at ZZV and MGW given more favorable dynamic and moisture return prognosis for those terminals. .OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Restriction chances in scattered showers and possible thunderstorms will continue into the weekend. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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