Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 061319 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 919 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY EAST OF PITTSBURGH INTO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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WITH 9AM UPDATE...BACKED OFF ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH VERY LITTLE COVERAGE ON RADAR AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER...INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS EASTERNMOST COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TIGHTENED OVERALL GRADIENT BASED ON LOCATION OF UPPER LOW. IN ADDITION...TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURES DURING THE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR LESS CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME. IF ANYTHING...THE NEXT UPDATE MAY REQUIRE A BUMP FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. CLOUDS ARE ROTATING BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND EAST AS THE CLOSED LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST MOVES NORTH. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ALONG THE RIDGES BY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST POPS THIS REGION...AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT. POPS WILL LESSEN FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION FARTHER AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER WITH A DRY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN OHIO. A BIT WARMER TODAY WITH SOME WARMING ALOFT AND EXPECTED BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAINLY EAST OF I-79 THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH AS LOW IS SHUNTED EAST BY APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL WARM TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY AND COOL DAY SUNDAY. BY MONDAY A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER END OF CHANCE MONDAY AS MODELS DISAGREE ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SW FLOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BRING INCRG SHOWER/PSBL TSTM CHCS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. RIDGING SHOULD THEN RETURN MAINLY DRY WEATHER TO THE RGN BY BEFORE A MIDWEST TROF APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPS SHOULD AVG A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LVLS THRU THE PERIOD. SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS USED...WITH SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO POPS THU FOLLOWING RECENT MODEL TRENDS. && .AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST BY LATE MORNING AFTER THE MORNING INVERSION BREAKS AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. SITES EAST OF PITTSBURGH WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER TODAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE LOWER LEVELS BUT ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. .OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH A SAT NIGHT COLD FRONT...AND A LATE MON/TUE WARM FRONT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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