Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 310707 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 307 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and seasonably warm weather can then be expected into mid week. A disturbance will increase rain chances Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Sunshine with only a few cirrus today under high pressure. High temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above average, but with dew points in the 50s it will be a more comfortable afternoon. Clear skies and light winds tonight will allow temperatures to fall into the 50s most locations.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Dry and a bit warmer Wednesday as surface ridge shifts east. Models remain in overall agreement for a mid level trough and associated cold front to approach Wednesday night and slowly move east into the region Thursday. Little change with precipitation probabilities, which will continue to increase later Wednesday night and into Thursday. Above average temperatures are anticipated given the warm, moist advection in advance of the front.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Little change to previous thinking as model guidance suggests that the front will lag in complete passage through Friday with chance pops maintained. While differences in evolution of the pattern over the weekend into early next week remain, overall trend of developing and deepening mid and upper level trough continues in all models, as a series of shortwaves move through the base of the trough. Will keep shower chances through the period. Temperatures will trend 5 to 10 degrees below average by early next week.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... General VFR for the forecast period. Exception will be the risk for pre-dawn fog. Confidence is low on the extent and density of possible fog, so used yesterday`s obs as a guide. With the exception of LBE forecast mvfr fog, with lifr possible at LBE. Any fog that does form will burn off quickly with sunrise. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Restrictions are likely with a late week cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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