Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 241731 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 131 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler temperatures today with a few sprinkles or a shower, especially north and east of Pittsburgh. High pressure will then keep dry and cool conditions tonight into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Afternoon update to issue frost advisory overnight for parts of eastern Ohio into southern counties of the northern West Virginia Panhandle. This area has the best opportunity for stratocu to break out later tonight with light winds. This would give enough radiational cooling for areas of frost. Other changes to forecast are minor, and previous discussion follows. Cold has crossed the southeast ridges, with temperatures to be steady or fall through the day with 850mb cold advection helping to keep stratocu across much of the region. With cooler air pouring over the warm waters of Lake Erie, limited production of lake- enhanced showers is expected into the afternoon with chance PoPs primarily north of I-80. A few sprinkles have made their way south with the cooler air, and have added these basically north of I-70. Dry and cool high pressure will take temperatures below the seasonal average tonight as high pressure and subsidence break clouds. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Building surface high pressure will return dry weather to the area through Wednesday. An upper-level trough will dig into the western Great Lakes early Wednesday, strengthening the surface low as it approaches from the west. Modest isentropic ascent across the warm front will lead to a gradual increase in clouds by Wednesday morning. Several models generate qpf with this feature as it pushes north of the area Wednesday night. Model soundings reveal deeper moisture resides aloft, with a low-level dry layer. This dry layer, along with a slower evolution of the parent low, should delay onset of precipitation. Continuing to hold off PoPs until the surface low nears Wednesday night. Likely PoPs have been maintained for Thursday as the deepening low tracks just to our north. A strengthening of the low-level jet should increase rain efficiency Thursday. This is noted in fairly high qpf amounts seen across model guidance, especially the 00z GFS. For the time being, have stayed at or just below WPC qpf guidance. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Brief ridging will dry out the forecast Friday, but another trough will already be approaching from the west. Unsettled weather and cooler than seasonal average temperatures will hold for the weekend until the western CONUS ridge begins to break down early next week. In general, followed close to the Superblend guidance for construction of the extended period. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR with occasionally MVFR stratocu in cold advection will continue through at least the first half of the TAF period. Lake- enhanced showers will be situated in the vicinity of KFKL and KDUJ through the remainder of the afternoon but should do little to impact visibility. Clouds should begin to scatter out from west to east as a surface ridge builds overhead and we lose the instability of daytime heating tonight. However, as the upper trough shifts to the east, some of the model guidance swings a weak shortwave across the lakes which may maintain clouds and chances for precip, again mainly north of PIT. Regardless, VFR conditions should prevail for much of Tuesday. W-NW wind with gusts to 20kts will diminish tonight. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The next chance for general restrictions will be with Thursday low pressure.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday FOR OHZ039-048- 049-057>059-068-069. PA...None. WV...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday FOR WVZ004-012. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.