Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 301944 AAA AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 344 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Wrapped-up low pressure will bring rain showers to the upper Ohio Valley through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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345pm update...this update will include a modification in PoPs and temperatures. First area of showers/storms rushing to the north and east as region is being rapidly engulfed in the warm sector. Temperatures will see a noticeable rise for the rest of the afternoon and into the early evening, with the exception of the far north. PoPs have been adjusted to account for the exit of the afternoon activity and the onset of more activity overnight. Still not sure how much additional storm activity we will see overnight as atmosphere will stabilize in the warm sector. Previous discussion... Rain will be moderate at times overnight with favorable dynamics...especially north and east of a line running roughly from Zanesville to Dubois.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Rain showers will continue early Friday as the upper low moves overhead. It appears that a dry slot will bring to an end the widespread precipitation by midday, but scattered showers and/or drizzle will likely continue with low level moisture trapped under building subsidence inversion through Fri night. Surface ridge will start to build overhead on Saturday, but northwest flow and cold advection will likely keep skies cloudy for a good part of the day. High pressure will support dry conditions on Sunday. Temperatures will remain just slightly above averages on Friday and return to seasonal values for the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Active weather pattern continues starting with the approach of the next low pressure system sometime Monday. With plenty of uncertainty apparent in the new model runs, especially in regard to low placement evolution, opted to use a model blend. Temperatures will generally stay close to or slightly above average for early April. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue this evening ahead of a broad low pressure system. Largely handled these with VCSH and VCTS, but a quick amendment may be necessary for individual ports as cells move over. Tonight, the more organized system will approach leading to a deterioration to at least IFR conditions that will linger through Friday. A strong low-level jet will accompany the cold front late tonight leading to possible llws concerns. Surface flow will gradually transition from southeasterly to south and eventually southwesterly as the low moves through Friday. Outlook... Restrictions are likely through Saturday as broad low pressure moves slowly across the region. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.