Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS -- Highlight Changed Discussion --
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FXUS61 KPBZ 180217
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
917 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017
While a cold front crossing the region will bring
temperatures closer to normal on Wednesday, the entire 7 day
forecast period will have above normal temperatures. The next
time for widespread rain will be Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Made minor adjustments to PoPs and temperatures through tonight.
Previous discussion follows.
Observed dry air aloft behind the cold front should
prevent precipitation for a short period before the next
shortwave rushes towards the region. Therefore, have lowered PoPs
for a short period before upper moisture returns and lift is
sufficient for more rain showers to spread across the region late
tonight. Despite the passage of the cold front, the combination
of southwest flow and low level moisture will help prevent
temperatures from reaching their seasonal low values.
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level low is progged to shift southeast by late
Wednesday morning and building high pressure will help diminish
precipitation chances gradually throughout the day. Dry weather
will then pursue Wednesday night and Thursday before another low
pressure system brings precipitation late Thursday night through
Friday evening. While precipitation may start as snow from
Pittsburgh north, current forecast keeps any accumulation less
than an inch. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees above normal.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper low will develop over the Southern Plains Saturday
and slowly move up the East Coast through the extended forecast
period. This system should bring rain to the region by Sunday and
keep rain in the forecast through the rest of the forecast. Warm
weather will continue, with temperatures between 10-15 degrees
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A brief period of VFR conditions is expected during the evening
hours. Conditions will deteriorate to MVFR and then IFR overnight
as an upper low approaches from the west, along with another
period of scattered showers. Some improvement to MVFR is possible
past sunrise, but restrictions will continue overall. West to
southwest winds of around 10 knots are expected.
Expect general VFR from late Wednesday until the next system
moves in on Friday.