Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 261734 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1234 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TOWARD THE COAST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MIDDAY UPDATE FEATURED FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO POP AND WEA TRENDS AS LIGHT...TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW CONTS UNDR EWD SHIFTING DEFORMATION ZONE. GIVEN TRENDS AND OVRNGT EXPECTATIONS...HAVE ADDED PRESTON AND TUCKER COUNTIES TO THE PORTION OF THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THOUGH AS THE LOW DVLPS TWD THE COAST AND ENHANCES COLD ADVCTN OVR THE UPR OHIO REGION. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO THE RIDGES TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH A MIXED BAG OF WINTRY PRECIP I-70 SOUTH AND ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE NORTH. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SPEED IN WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLIPPER CROSSES THE REGION. THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE FASTEST...SO OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD KEEP PRECIP INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY WITH NW FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT MORE AT THE SURFACE...MAKING IT HARD TO PUT ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN AN OVERALL COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WPC FORECAST VALUES. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS WESTERN EDGE OF STORM MOVES TO THE EAST...IFR VISIBILITIES IN WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE EVENING. MVFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...WITH COVERAGE DIMINISHING ENOUGH AT TERMINALS TO ONLY INCLUDE A FLURRY MENTION AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE MOST MODEL GUIDANCE THINKS THAT WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...THINK THIS IS TOO PESSIMISTIC...AND HAVE GONE WITH GENERAL MVFR CIGS. EXCEPTION TO THIS IS FKL/DUJ...WHERE IFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ001. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ020- 021-029. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ007>009- 013>016-022-023-073-074-076. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>003. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ023-041. && $$

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