Area Forecast Discussion
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897 FXUS61 KPBZ 180217 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 917 PM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... While a cold front crossing the region will bring temperatures closer to normal on Wednesday, the entire 7 day forecast period will have above normal temperatures. The next time for widespread rain will be Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Made minor adjustments to PoPs and temperatures through tonight. Previous discussion follows. Observed dry air aloft behind the cold front should prevent precipitation for a short period before the next shortwave rushes towards the region. Therefore, have lowered PoPs for a short period before upper moisture returns and lift is sufficient for more rain showers to spread across the region late tonight. Despite the passage of the cold front, the combination of southwest flow and low level moisture will help prevent temperatures from reaching their seasonal low values.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The upper level low is progged to shift southeast by late Wednesday morning and building high pressure will help diminish precipitation chances gradually throughout the day. Dry weather will then pursue Wednesday night and Thursday before another low pressure system brings precipitation late Thursday night through Friday evening. While precipitation may start as snow from Pittsburgh north, current forecast keeps any accumulation less than an inch. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... An upper low will develop over the Southern Plains Saturday and slowly move up the East Coast through the extended forecast period. This system should bring rain to the region by Sunday and keep rain in the forecast through the rest of the forecast. Warm weather will continue, with temperatures between 10-15 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A brief period of VFR conditions is expected during the evening hours. Conditions will deteriorate to MVFR and then IFR overnight as an upper low approaches from the west, along with another period of scattered showers. Some improvement to MVFR is possible past sunrise, but restrictions will continue overall. West to southwest winds of around 10 knots are expected. .OUTLOOK... Expect general VFR from late Wednesday until the next system moves in on Friday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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