Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 221148 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 748 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 650 AM UPDATE...MCS LEFTOVERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN BEHIND. WATCHING NEXT COMPLEX OVER INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO BUT STILL THINK THE BULK OF THIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AS WELL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CWA IS MISSING THE BULK OF THE IMPACT FROM MCS LEFTOVERS ROLLING TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO INTO WEST VIRGINIA. SOME OUTFLOW-GENERATED ACTIVITY HAS GENERATED A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN OHIO HOWEVER. HAVE THIS ROLLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH LIKELY POPS FOR A FEW HOURS. EARLIER LAKE ERIE STORMS HAVE DEGENERATED INTO A FEW SHOWERS SINKING TOWARDS THE FKL AREA. WHILE LIKELY POPS LOOK APPROPRIATE FOR MOST OF THE AREA...STILL THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL STAYS OFF TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. PERSISTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL START TO GET NUDGED SOUTHWARD WITH TIME...AS THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST INDUCES MORE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. RICHER MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 2+ PWAT REMAINS MAINLY FROM SOUTHEAST OHIO INTO WV...WHERE THICKNESS/CORFIDI VECTOR PATTERNS SUPPORT CONTINUED PROPAGATION OF SHOWERS/STORMS. MUCH OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ARE RELATIVELY DRIER AS WELL. LATEST HPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOLLOWS THIS THINKING...KEEPING THE THREAT JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH. WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH BUT WILL MAINTAIN HWO MENTION OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED PROBLEMS. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AS WELL...BUT ORGANIZATION OF THESE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. LOSS OF HEATING AS WELL AS SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT WILL ALLOW COVERAGE TO WANE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECTING ISOLATED SHRA AT BEST AROUND 12Z. LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HINDER MUCH IN THE WAY OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES...WHICH WERE IN LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVELY BUILD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC SAT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROF BEING PUSHED OUT TO SEA. THIS CONTINUES THE TREND TOWARDS AN OVERALL DRIER FORECAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. AS FOR SAT...ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES THROUGH CENTRAL PA DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK H5 TROF APPROACHES. EXPECTING THIS TO ACTIVATE SOME CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. TRIMMING BACK POPS AND SKY COVER SUN AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SUBSIDENCE WILL WORK TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION SUN AT BAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RELAX A LITTLE ON SUN MAKING IT A LITTLE LESS MUGGY. TAX && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HEIGHTS BUILD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER RIDGE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OH VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK DEFLECTING WEAK DISTURBANCES WELL TO THE NORTH. BY WEDS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS A BROAD TROF DIGS INTO THE PLAINS BRINGING A SWEEPING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES THURS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE PROJECTED FRONT DAY 7 AS THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THIS SYSTEM. TAX && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WDPSRD MVFR TO IFR CONDS WL CONT THIS MRNG IN FOG/ST. EXP A GRDL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY ERLY AFTN...THOUGH A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WL BRING SCT TO NMRS SHWRS AND A FEW TSTMS. WITH CLOUD COVER LMTG INSTBY...MENTIONED VCTS ONLY FOR SITES S OF PIT WHERE BETTER INSTBY IS PROGGED...WITH VCSH ELSW THOUGH A TSTM CAN/T BE RULED OUT. AFT PCPN DCRS AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS TNGT...EXP IFR FG TO DVLP AGAIN. OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... RSTRNS ARE PSBL SAT IN ISOLD-SCT TSTMS. OTRW...RSTRNS ARE PSBL IN ERLY MRNG BR. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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