Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 231005
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
605 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016
A quick moving low pressure will bring rain showers mostly north
of Pennsylvania and Ohio turnpikes Sunday night. Dry weather
returns through mid week, however daytime highs will be in the
50s...which is below normal for this time of year.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Winds have backed to west or southwesterly this morning, allowing
for modest warm advection to take place. After daybreak, strong
southwesterly flow and insolation will allow temperatures to warm
rather quickly. Highs Sunday should reach low 60s by afternoon,
mid to upper 50s in the high terrain and across the north.
Late tonight, cloud cover will increase across the north as a
clipper system streams in from the west. This system will
accelerate as it approaches, ultimately getting absorbed by the
large filling low residing north of Maine. Rain will initially
hold off until after sunset tonight, but will quickly spread to
areas north of I-80 and eventually into the ridges overnight into
Monday morning. Temperatures will remain warm enough to preclude
any mention of snow. Gusty southwesterly winds will continue
overnight as a strong low-level jet streak will accompany the
passage of the low.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Cool northwest flow will re-establish in the wake of the clipper
and associated cold front. Can`t completely rule out lake-enhanced
showers across the north Monday, as the cooler air moves over the
relatively warm Lake Erie waters. Any lingering showers that do
exist Monday afternoon should diminish quickly Monday night as
drier air filters in with the surface high encroaching from the
High pressure at the surface will then keep the forecast area dry
through at least early Wednesday. Persistent northwest flow aloft
will bring 850mb temperatures back below 0C through the short
terms, which will aid in keeping surface temperatures below
average through the middle of the week.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A shortwave trough digging into the western Great Lakes will bring
the next organized chance of precipitation back to the area by
late Wednesday. Model guidance fairly consistent with this
feature, so likely PoPs were maintained for Thursday. This late
week system, along with another cold front Saturday will re-
establish deep northwest flow, which will keep temperatures
relegated to near or just below the seasonal averages through the
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --A batch of stratocu will exit the region between 13-14z.
Afterward, cirrus will be the predominate cloud. Low pressure
approaches from the Great Lakes after 0Z Monday. Deeper moisture
and the surface low track along and north of the Ohio / PA
turnpikes. This will keep most of the showers along and north of
that region. Continue to carry prevailing showers at FKL and
DUJ, but leave it out of the remaining airports. MVFR cigs arrive
after midnight area wide. Did not go IFR cigs at FKL and DUJ,
however that will be something we will monitor.
Winds shall stay around 7-11kts from the SW then veer to the W.
Gusts up to 20 kts are possible during the 16-20Z time period. Low
level wind shear continues to be highlighted by several high
resolution models after 0Z Monday. If the trend continues this
will need to be inserted into the forecast.
.OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Monday...MVFR cigs owing to VFR
Tuesday - Wednesday...VFR
Thursday...Rain showers likely
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