Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 061632 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1232 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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WITH NOON UPDATE...HAVE MADE ADDITIONAL CHANGES FOR HOURLY TEMPERATURES. CLOUD COVER HAS NOT HELD DOWN TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS EXPECTED...EVEN IN THE EAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPERATURES BACK UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. WITH VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW...ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING IN NATURE AND COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR. JUST RECENTLY ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ALLEGHENY COUNTY...BUT CONSIDERING ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...THESE RAINFALL RATES SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR A LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY MID LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN WV WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ADVANCES ALONG IT...KEEPING SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO BRING THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES. GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH THE NAM BEING A SLOWER OUTLIER. SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE USING A BLEND OF RAW GFS NUMBERS AND GFS GRIDDED MOS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST IN RELATIVELY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES HARD TO TIME HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WPC PROGS WHICH SEEMED A GOOD COMPROMISE. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AN UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AOA 3KFT...HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE OBSERVED DURING HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. VFR OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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