Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 211307 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 907 AM EDT Sun Aug 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Showers will end by early afternoon. High pressure will then regain control and result in drier, more comfortable conditions through the first half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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By all available evidence, the cold front is nearly bi-secting the forecast area from northeast to southwest. A fine line of radar echoes is stretching from just north of Franklin, PA southwest to just south of Zanesville, OH. Making good progress, this should clear Pittsburgh by 11am, significantly lowering precipitation chances in the metro area. It will take a while longer for rain to end across the eastern half of the forecast area as additional waves try to ride north along the higher terrain. Even still, expecting the entirety of our area to by dry by late this afternoon. The trough axis will push through Sunday night. Northwest flow over the Great Lakes, and modest cold advection, may promote a few isolated showers overnight north of I-80. These will end by sunrise, with much drier air moving in.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Monday and Tuesday will feature plenty of sunshine and comfortable conditions, as surface high pressure crosses. Below normal temperatures on Monday, will rise closer to climatology on Tuesday as the air mass modifies and mid-level heights rise.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Dry weather continues through Wednesday with the passage of the mid-level trough axis. Humidity increases again Thursday in increasing southwesterly flow. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Thursday night ahead of the next front. The boundary passes Friday or Friday night with continued rain chances. Dry weather and seasonable temperatures are expected for the end of the period. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Ceilings have bounced around some this morning as the cold front traverses through the forecast area. Despite temporary bounces, however, most terminals are MVFR or better. VFR conditions are expected to gradually spread east as the front departs this afternoon. The wind shift to the west is almost fully complete. Expect these west winds to stay generally around 10kts although higher gusts 15-20kts are possible in the wake of the front. The potential exists for additional restrictions early Monday morning as low-level moisture and a passing upper trough may develop MVFR/IFR stratus. .OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Outside of pre-dawn fog possible in the middle of the week. The next chance for restrictions will come with another front Thursday into Friday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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