Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 180056 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 856 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A SUNDAY COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... DAYTIME CUMULUS IS ABOUT TO BE TOTALLY REMOVED FROM THE AREA AS THE LAST VESTIGES OF IT SEEM TO BE FALLING APART OVER THE RIDGES. EVEN AS CLOUDS FALL APART...THERE IS A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH SET TO CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS...A COMPLETE DEARTH OF LAYER MOISTURE IS EVIDENT WITH ITS PASSAGE...SO EVEN AN INCREASE OF MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS SEEMS LIKE A STRETCH. BEHIND SAID SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT VERTICAL MIXING SUCH THAT EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE RANGEBOUND DUE TO A COOL START AND POOR MIXING. THE END RESULT WILL BE A DAY MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY HALF A DOZEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE REINFORCED SFC HIGH WL BLD OFF THE E COAST BY FRIDAY WITH SLY FLOW REINITIATING WARM...RELATIVELY MOIST ADVCTN OVR THE UPR OHIO REGION. THIS WL CUMULATE IN TEMPS SURGING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVGS BY SATURDAY AFTN...ALTHOUGH DRY CONDITIONS WL CONT UNTIL THE APPRCH OF THE SUNDAY CDFNT. SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE APPRCH OF A SHRTWV/ASSOCIATED CDFNT ON SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE THE NXT CHC FOR SHWRS OVR THE REGION WHILE PASSAGE SHOULD SURGE COOLER AIR BACK OVR THE REGION AFTR THE SATURDAY WARM UP. MDLS AGREE THAT E COAST UPR TROFG WL LINGER INTO MIDWEEK WITH NW FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES...BUT STILL DIVERGE IN MAGNITUDE OF THE FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS RUN PROJECTIONS HAVE ELIMINATED THE CLOSED MID LVL LOW PREVIOUSLY PROJECTED. THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS THUS OF PERSISTENCE WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS CONTG. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS AND LGT SFC WIND WERE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW STRATOCU AND CU MAY PLAGUE THE REGION AT LEAST UNTIL PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONT/UPR DISTURBANCE ON THU MRNG. AT MOMENT...IT APPREARS THAT CLD COVER MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT FOG RESTRICTIONS FOR ALL BUT THE NRN TERMINALS. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... THE NXT CHC FOR GENL RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A SUNDAY CDFNT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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