Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 161215 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 815 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will keep the area dry on Saturday. A cold front will bring another round of rain Saturday night. Below average temperatures and snow returns early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... KEY MESSAGES: - Clouds will decrease throughout the morning with weak ridging. - Patchy fog is expected through dawn (mainly in eastern OH) for areas that experienced prolong clearing. - Quiet, dry conditions will persist through Saturday evening. GOES-16 Microphysics RGB depicts valley fog developing in eastern OH given radiational cooling under a clear sky, light winds, and sufficient ground moisture from recent storms. Fog will dissipate quickly after dawn with diurnal heating. Adjustments have been made to clouds and temperatures as lingering low-lvl clouds start to decrease in coverage as under weak ridging. Areas within the ridges and near I-80 will likely hold on to clouds the longest due to upsloping and lake induced moisture. Breezy conditions are expected today with deep boundary layer mixing and as a low pressure system tracks to our northwest. Probability of 20mph wind gusts is high across the region, however 25mph to 30mph gusts will likely be confided to the ridges and northwest of Pittsburgh. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Precipitation chances return after 8pm with a passing cold front. - A wintry mix may develop in elevations above 3kft after 5am Sunday with cold advection. - Snow chances return Sunday, mostly north of Pittsburgh, due to lake enhancement. ------------------------------------------------------------------- A trough, currently north of Minnesota, will continue to track across the Great Lakes Saturday afternoon/evening and return cold air to the region. However, with ridging noted over the Midwest, 850mb temps may not fall too drastically and still keep afternoon high temperatures for Sunday near average. With fetch over the Great Lakes directed from the west, lake enhanced snow showers Sunday afternoon and evening will likely remain focus near I-80. With warm surface temperatures and a high sun angle, snow accumulation is not expected. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Cold temperatures are expected to linger through Tuesday - Lake enhanced snow is expected Sunday night into Tuesday. - Wind chill values will be abnormally cold early Tuesday (teens in the lower elevations/single digits to below zero in the higher terrain). - Above average temperatures return mid-week. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Long range ensemble models continue to favor a cold pattern across the Ohio River Valley late Sunday into Tuesday across the Great Lakes. Arctic air will drive high and low temperatures to be below average by 5 to 10 degrees Monday and Tuesday. Probability of low temperatures below 25F Tuesday morning is 55% or higher near I-80 and in the ridges. As a large upper-lvl low pivots out of the Great Lakes and enters New England, flow off of Lake Erie will shift from the west to northwest. Therefore, snow shower potential will drift further south of I-80 Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Probability of one inch of snow for both days ranges between 50% to 70% north of I-80/eastern Tucker County. Probability of >= 0.1 inches of snow is elevated (above 90%) within the ridges due to upsloping and confided along I-80 (in close proximity to the lake). Accumulation will likely be focused during the overnight time period, when sfc temperature fall near or below freezing. With a strong gradient wind associated with the low and cold advection, expected wind chill values to be abnormally cold early Tuesday. Teens in the lower terrain, single digits to below freezing in the ridges of PA/WV. Increase fetch over the lake with a new shortwave may keep snow showers in the region into Wednesday. However, accumulation will likely be very little given a building ridge to the west. Near to above average temperatures are expected to mid-week into Friday. However, precipitation chances may return as a trough advances across the Southeast and tracks north along the East Coast. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A bit of patchy fog and low stratus will finally dissipate by 14Z or 15Z at the latest under high pressure. Mid and high level clouds are expected to increase later today as a cold front approaches from the Upper Great Lakes region. This front will cross the Upper Ohio Valley region tonight through early Sunday, with showers and MVFR restrictions expected. In addition, SW wind gusts to 20kt are expected with mixing and a tightening pressure gradient ahead of the front. A WSHFT to the NW, with additional gusts to 20kt are expected after the late Saturday night FROPA. .Outlook... Gusty NW wind is expected Sunday behind the exiting cold front. Restrictions and scattered snow showers return Monday night and Tuesday with a reinforcing cold front and subsequent upper troughing. VFR returns Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure builds in.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hefferan NEAR TERM...Hefferan SHORT TERM...Hefferan LONG TERM...Hefferan AVIATION...WM/Shallenberger

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