Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 171929 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 329 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Rain is likely with a cold front tonight into Friday. Temperatures will stay warm through the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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First area of showers and thunderstorms is currently across eastern Ohio and moving to the northeast, with a second line of thunderstorms stretching from western Ohio back into Indiana. The HRRR seems to be changing its mind slightly with every successive run, so confidence is somewhat lower on overall evolution for rain along with severe and flooding threat. As of mid afternoon, storms in neither line have managed to grow very tall, and storm movement has been fast enough to prevent any flooding. Much of the forecast area remains under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall as well as a slight risk for severe weather, with damaging winds the greatest threat. At this point, the severe/flooding risk looks low with the first line, but with some partial clearing between the two lines, the second line might be able to tap into some additional instability. Effective wind shear values are also marginally higher to the east, which could also help the second line of storms to strengthen. Heavy rainfall will be possible with precipitable water values over 2" and warm cloud depths rising as high as 15,000 ft. The bulk of the rainfall will have moved east by sunrise on Friday, although scattered showers could linger into Friday afternoon east of Pittsburgh. The chance for thunderstorms should also drop significantly by sunrise as well. Overnight lows shouldn`t drop much below 70, while temperatures will climb into the 80s once again on Friday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Cooler air will finally arrive Friday night with the frontal passage having not occurred until Friday afternoon. Between cooler air crossing Lake Erie and a surface boundary, scattered showers remain in the forecast on Saturday. Computer models are showing additional coverage in showers compared to model runs from yesterday. As high pressure moves over the area by Sunday, conditions will dry out. Temperatures will remain seasonable.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Broad high pressure will keep conditions dry Monday into Tuesday before another cold front brings a chance of rain back to the forecast for late Tuesday into Wednesday. Monday should have the warmest temperatures of the week, with temperatures dropping back towards normal by Thursday.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Warm front moving through the forecast area this afternoon is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms. These will continue to blossom through the evening, becoming more numerous and strengthening. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are then possible through early Friday, when a cold front finally pushes through. Temporary restrictions and gusty winds will be possible in any thunderstorm activity. After the passage of the front, some MVFR or high IFR stratus is possible centered around dawn Friday. Any stratus that does develop will gradually improve through the day. Light southerly flow will shift to west-southwesterly with occasional gusts Friday. .Outlook... Restrictions are possible with another passing disturbance Saturday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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