Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 290134 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 934 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... A VERY COLD COLUMN CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...DIURNAL INSTABILITY IS WANING...WHICH EVEN WITH COLD ADVECTION ALOFT IS LEADING TO A RAPID DECIMATION OF THE CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS ANY REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY. BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING THE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO OUR NORTHWEST DEEP INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...DUE TO THE FACT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL OFF TO OUR WEST...WINDS SHOULD STAY ABOVE CALM ALL NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE MUCH MORE THAN PATCHY LOCAL FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. AS SUCH...TEMPERATURE FALLS ON BOTH A RADIATIVE AND ADVECTIVE BASIS SHOULD BE IMPRESSIVE. FORECAST GUIDANCE ALL POINTS TOWARD RECORD LOWS TONIGHT...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONCURRED WITH THIS. AS SUCH...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT EXCEPT TO BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE RECORD LOW IN PITTSBURGH FOR JULY 29TH IS 52 SET IN 1982. ON TUESDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH COLD ADVECTION ALLOWING FOR A DIURNAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS. FORCING WILL BE LACKING...SO SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE FAR LOWER THAN THEY WERE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET UP TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOOKS LIKE OCTOBER IN JULY WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA NEARLY STATIONARY WITH SHORTWAVES ROTATING UNDERNEATH IT. BEST SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST. BULK OF SHOWERS THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNAL AND CONFINED TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO LAKE MOISTURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AN UPR TROF WL SET UP ACRS THE ERN CONUS THRU THE LONG TERM PD. SVRL WK SHRTWVS WL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF...BUT WITH LMTD AVAIL DEEP MOISTURE EXP MAINLY DIURNAL LOW CHCS FOR SHWRS EACH DAY. TEMPS WL AVG NR OR JUST BLO SEASONAL LVLS. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD HEIGHTS THIS EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS SHIFTING EASTWARD. WILL GO WITH GENERAL VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST EARLY. MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS SWINGING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WILL INDICATE A TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE IN EASTERN PORTS JUST BEFORE DAWN. DID NOT OVERPLAY FOG AS CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT. WESTERN PORTS SHOULD SEE LESS CLOUD COVER THEN THE EAST ON TUESDAY. AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CU. OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... NO WDSPRD RSTRNS EXPD. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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