Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 251745 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 145 PM EDT Thu Aug 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Showers and thunderstorms will move through the area this evening and tonight with very warm conditions continuing through the weekend.
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Scattered to broken cumulus remains over the area late this afternoon with dewpoints generally in the 70s across the board. Convection is starting to develop from Indiana into lower Michigan and southwest Ontario ahead of an eastward moving short wave trough. The vast majority of large scale ascent associated with this wave will move to the north of the area, however the trailing edge of the wave combined with an uptick in shear late this evening and CAPEs still elevated due to very high dewpoints will mean a pretty good chance of showers and thunderstorms traversing especially the northern reaches of the CWA late this evening. SPC maintains a slight risk for severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes as the predominant threats. In examining the 12z raob, PWATs were already 1.6 inches at that time and KILN revealed 1.9 inches. As soupier air moves in, this will mean that any storms that do develop will likely be copious rainfall producers due to warm rain processes and a very high freezing level. Likewise, this means hail will be a minimal threat as the system moves through. Fries
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Precipitation chances are projected to wane on Friday as surface high pressure builds in the wake of a weak front. Have persisted with a dry forecast through Saturday as per the latest, and consistent deterministic trends. Warm weather will continue as zonal flow across the northern ridge periphery shunts warm air across the region. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Little change in pattern is indicated through the first half of next week with the southern U.S. upper high maintaining grip, but with tropical system encroachment toward the Southeastern Coast. Shortwaves with the zonal flow over the immediate area would support periodic, and diurnally-supported precip chances for the long term. Low-confidence slight to chance POPs were maintained for that eventuality as per the latest Superblend guidance. Warm temperature can be expected given the lack of any significant airmass alteration. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Showers and a few thunderstorms will encroach from the west during the early portions of the forecast. Expect coverage and intensity to continue to decrease overnight, so have only included restrictions in a tempo group. Shortwave that has sparked the activity will clear the area quickly this morning. Expect a quick return to vfr conditions after sunrise. .OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Periodic restriction chances should persist through Friday with the approach and passage of a cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.