Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 220439 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1239 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COOL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN INTO EARLY SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... CLOUDS ONLY REMAIN IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST RIDGES AND WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT ACROSS ONTARIO TO CENTRAL MICHIGAN WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS...STRAY SHOWERS...AND GUSTY WINDS. WARM ADVECTION JUST AHEAD OF FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE RESIDING OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIME FOR A NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. RAW MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE 12Z GFS IS NEARLY 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE NAM/SREF...ALTHOUGH MOS LOWS BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS ARE RELATIVELY SIMILAR. WITH THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...HAVE NUDGED THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE RAW GFS FORECAST. OVERALL...THIS GENERALLY BROUGHT FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS DOWN 2-3 DEGREES...BUT DID NOT NEED TO EXPAND MENTION OF FROST TOO MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONSIDERING LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR IS RIGHT AROUND FREEZING...DECIDED TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL SPREAD A WIDE SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWER CLOUDS MOVING IN FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER...APPEARS THAT ANY LIFTING MECHANISM WILL REMAIN TOO FAR WEST TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWERS LOCALLY. SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER INCREASE TO HIGHS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS SHORTWAVES ADVANCE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR THE HOLIDAY FORECAST AS THE STRENGTH OF RIDGING AND PLACEMENT OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA REMAIN IN QUESTION. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THEREAFTER WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK EMBEDDED CROSSING SHORTWAVES. THIS WILL CONTINUE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. USED WPC BASED ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE WITH DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO HELP SMOOTH OUT INDIVIDUAL MODEL DIFFERENCES...ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN VFR ALTOCU AND CU...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. CLEARING SKIES AND GUSTY WNW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WINDS SUBSIDING AROUND SUNSET. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-015-016. WV...NONE. && $$

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