Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 210433 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1233 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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DAMP AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF AXIS OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY THIS MRNG WL CONT TO DEEPEN AND CUTOFF TDA AS JET STREAK SLIDES OVR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NMRS TO WIDESPREAD SHWRS WL THUS RMN IN THE FORECAST DESPITE DRY ADVCTN IN BNDRY LYR...WITH FOCUS OVR NRN AND ERN ZONES AS FLOW WRAPS WITH THE DEEPENING LOW. IN GENL...FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TDAS DAMP AND COOL PROGNOSIS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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COLD MID LVLS WL PERSIST OVR THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE THE LOW CNTR SHIFTING TWD THE COAST. DESPITE A CONSIDERABLE REDUCTION IN POPS...SHWRS CHCS IN THE LOW THRESHOLD CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT WERE MAINTAINED WITH EMPHASIS OVR THE UPSLOPE AREAS ALNG THE I 80 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE RIDGES. THEREAFTER...WARMING ALOFT/LOWERING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS PCPN CHCS ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH SLGT TO CHC NMBRS WERE KEPT OVR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS. TRAILING SHRTWV IS PROGGED FOR A FRIDAY CROSSING OF THE REGION...BUT SOME CLDS ARE ALL THAT IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE LACK A THERMAL TROF ALOFT AS WELL AS SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MSTR. SHORT TERM TEMPS WERE TWEAKED USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS TRENDS...BUT LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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EWD PROGRESS OF THE MID-WEEK UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM PD.
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&& .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A SLOW MOVG UPR LOW ACRS THE GT LKS RGN WL MAINTAIN MVFR CONDS AND PDS OF SHWRS ACRS AREA PORTS THRU TNGT. THE EXCEPTION WL BE SOME OCNL IFR CIGS THAT ARE EXPD MAINLY FOR PORTS FM PIT NWD ERLY THIS MRNG. .AVIATION /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THU WITH SLOW MOVG LOW PRES ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC RGN.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15/07

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