Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 142337
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
637 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2017
Wintry mix will end this evening followed by high pressure for
Sunday. Warm weather will return next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
545pm update...have cancelled the northern tier of the advisory as
precipitation is shifting quickly to the southeast. Have modified
PoPs in line with current radar trends and latest hires model
guidance. Overnight temperatures and cloud cover has also been
Once the shortwave shifts east, the remaining precipitation should
shift to a rain/snow mix. Some icing may still be possible in a
few spots where temperatures hover near freezing, but overall
concerns for further impact is low. Temperatures will be near
seasonal averages overnight.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ridge of high pressure will remain in control on sunday, with near
average temperature expected under zonal flow. A deeper trough is
progged to develop over the plains for the start of the new week.
As this occurs, warm advection will resume. A warm front lifting
across the region on Monday may pose additional freezing rain
concerns early across points south of I-70, but with a slightly
slower onset of precipitation that the last set of model runs, it
appears the threat would be brief, if at all. Thus, will similar
reasoning as the previous shift, will hold off on an HWO mention.
A return of warm, moist air through Tuesday, ahead of the cold
front, will support likely to categorical PoPs across the region
based on the latest blend of guidance. Temperature will also
trend above average with values almost 20 degrees above normal
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Quick cooldown is expected on Wednesday with northwest flow rain
and snow showers possible before we warm up once again through the
end of the week. Used the superblend to construct most of this
forecast with only minor adjustments in the latter half of the
period based on the deviation in guidance values.
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Precipitation will pull east of the area this evening as a
shortwave exits. IFR/MVFR conditions in low ceilings and patchy
fog will linger before improvement after midnight. High pressure
provides VFR conditions and light winds late tonight through
Restrictions are possible S of PIT Sunday night with a crossing warm
front, and likely areawide Tue/Wed with the approach and passage
of a cold front.
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MD...Freezing Rain Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening FOR MDZ001.
OH...Freezing Rain Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening FOR
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening FOR OHZ049-
PA...Freezing Rain Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening FOR PAZ031-
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening FOR PAZ021-
Freezing Rain Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening FOR PAZ074-
WV...Freezing Rain Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening FOR WVZ004.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening FOR WVZ002-