Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 230455 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1255 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will provide dry weather through mid week before shower chances return with a late week cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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High pressure will remain the dominant feature through the period and maintain dry conditions with limited cloud coverage. This morning`s lows will be relatively cool with clear skies allowing for strong radiational cooling. Temperatures will recover quickly with daytime highs expected to be slightly above normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Ridging will continue to build toward the area into the short term portion of the forecast, which should maintain subsidence over the area at least through Wednesday. Warming will occur progressively as a result with 850 mb temperatures increasing right along with an uptrend low level mixing such that high temperatures should increase toward the upper 80s by mid-week. Likewise, humidity will increase with dewpoints running up toward the lower 70s by Thursday. However, also by Thursday, the first short wave trough to overrun the ridge will likely be passing. The increase in instability concurrent with the trough passage will increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms as a result. In addition, while 850 mb temperatures will max out on Thursday, clouds and some showers will likely keep temperatures from getting too out of hand. Thus, upper 80s were again forecast for Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A sprawling upper level anti-cyclone will continue to reside over the central and southern Appalachians through the long term forecast. This will keep the polar jet well to the north of the US/Canada border and thus the vast majority of forcing for ascent there as well. The long term looks primarily dry and above normal as a result with only episodic very low chances of thunderstorms as weak short waves overtop the ridge. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Surface high pressure centered near KPIT will keep VFR conditions into Tuesday. Calm winds and clear skies may allow for patchy fog development along the river valleys before daybreak, but dew point depressions look to be wide enough to not mention at any port for now. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Restriction potential returns with the approach and passage of a cold front Thursday and Friday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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