Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 280611 AAC AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 111 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... FOR THE OVERNIGHT...HAVE ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE COUNTIES IN THE LAKE EFFECT COUNTY AREA. A STRONG...BUT UNORGANIZED LAKE ENHANCED BAND IS QUICKLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HEART OF THE BAND...A GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN AREAS WHERE THE MOST INTENSE PART OF THE BAND CROSSES. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...ALSO EXPANDED THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE RIDGE COUNTIES AND THE LOW- LANDS IN WESTMORELAND COUNTY WHERE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BAND WILL CLIP. HAVE ALSO INCREASED SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE AND ACCUMULATION ACROSS MANY AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY. SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL MOVE THROUGH AS THE BAND BREAKS APART AND MORE ACTIVITY MOVES DOWN FROM NORTHEAST OHIO. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BAND MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN RIDGES AND INTO CENTRAL PA. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL DROP LATE TONIGHT...BELOW THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...HINDERING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL BE LONG GONE BY MID-MORNING AND THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND PUSHING DRYER AIR INTO THE REGION. A GOOD CHUNK OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL ERODE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS OHIO AND NORTHERN WV...BUT ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SPREAD HIGHER CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WEAK WAA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTH. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE TO BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH THE MOST LIKELY PLACE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THE WAVE WILL CLEAR AROUND DAWN ON SATURDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE...WAA WILL GET GOING ONCE AGAIN AS WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE INCREASE AND TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE DRY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND TEMPS MODERATING. TRICKY FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND A RATHER STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS PUSHING THE WARMER AIR OVER THE REGION. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE AN INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST IN CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS THAT MOVE THROUGH SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOCKED OVER THE AREA...SO A SCATTERED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME ON SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPS ON SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT TAKES ITS TIME CROSSING THE REGION. THERE IS REALLY NOTHING TO PUSH THE FRONT ALONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS WEAK AND THE FLOW IN THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. FRONT WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE ENTIRE REGION ON MONDAY MORNING BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS. EXPECT A BRIEF COOL DOWN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND WARMER AIR RETURNING BY MIDWEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LIFR SNOW BAND EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. BVI WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE LIFR CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...AND IT IS UNSURE WHETHER THE BAND WILL MANAGE TO AFFECT PIT/LBE. OTHERWISE...GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT NEARLY ALL OTHER TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY RISE FROM MVFR TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AT FKL/DUJ WITH A SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001. OH...NONE. PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ007-008-013>016-022-023. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ073- 074-076. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ023- 041. && $$

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