Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 171654 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1254 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH CLOUD HAVE YET AGAIN BEGUN TO STREAM INTO THE AREA ON BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF TO OUR EAST AND LOW LEVEL LOW FLOW SEEMS LIKELY TO INCREASE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTLY BETWEEN THIS SURFACE HIGH AND A SYSTEM DRIVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION DUE TO A STRONGER GRADIENT THAN YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD BOTH BRING WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THAN WE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY...AND IT SHOULD ALSO INCREASE LOW LEVEL MIXING...WHICH SHOULD GIVE AN ADDITIONAL UPWARD BUMP TO TEMPERATURES. ALL IN ALL...TEMPERATURE INCREASES OF 15-20 DEGREES RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY SEEM LIKELY...WHICH SHOULD BRING US BACK UP TOWARD...DRUM ROLL PLEASE...NORMAL! FRIES && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A MOISTURE STARVED COOL FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD ON PRECIP CHANCES. MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITHIN THE HEIGHT FALLS SHIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE AT THE LOWEST LAYERS IS SPARSE AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LOSES MUCH OF ITS STRUCTURE WITH LITTLE SUPPORT. HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH THIS FEATURE. TEMPS CONTINUE TO MODERATE FRIDAY. A BIT OF A COOL DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS WEAK CAA WILL TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE COOL FRONT. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE AREA DRY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A DRY AND WARM PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM. A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THE RISK FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY. A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY PERIODIC HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... GENL IFR IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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