Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271746 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 146 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... DESPITE ALL THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE WARM MOIST LOWER LEVELS...MID LEVEL RIDGING HAS THUS FAR CAPPED OFF ANY ACTIVITY. WE SHOULD START TO SEE BETTER BUILDUPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY FROM JUST NORTH OF ALLEGHENY COUNTY AND SOUTH...AS SFC TEMPS RISE SLIGHTLY AND WEDGE OF 70+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS SHIFT SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED STORMS BUT BASED ON LATEST SOUNDINGS THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY COLLAPSING STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS THERMODYNAMICS DECREASE AND THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS...AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN FROM TH WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT QUICKLY BOUNCE BACK ON FRIDAY...TO VALUES JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW WHAT IS BEING OBSERVED TODAY. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SVRL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WL KEEP OCNL SHWR AND TSTM CHCS THRU MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PD. THE BEST CHCS FOR PCPN WL BE WITH STRONGER WAVES SUN AND TWD MID WK. TEMPS SHOULD AVG SVRL DEG ABV THE SEASONAL LVLS. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPD THRU TNGT. A WK CDFNT WL CONT TO MOVE S ACRS THE RGN WITH SCT SHWRS AND PSBL TSTMS DVLPG. LACK OF UPR SPPRT AND MID LVL RIDGING WL LMT PCPN COVG...SO MAINTAINED VCSH IN THE TAFS S OF THE FNT. CU/SC CIGS WL SCT OUT AFT FROPA THIS EVE. OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ADVNG GT LKS LOW PRES WL BRING PSBL SHWR/TSTM RSTRNS SUN. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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