Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 061341 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 941 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS TODAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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WITH 930AM UPDATE...PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO HOURLY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE THICKEST...CREATING MORE OF A GRADIENT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO DRIFT NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION TODAY. INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED...AND WITH SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY PROGGED BY AFTERNOON A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALSO. INCREASED POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...GOING WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL. SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND EXIT LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR A LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT APPROACH AND PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MODEL PROGGED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE...THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME DRY MID LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE REGION WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN WV WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ADVANCES ALONG IT...KEEPING SHOWERS/STORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO BRING THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES. GENERALLY FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH THE NAM BEING A SLOWER OUTLIER. SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE USING A BLEND OF RAW GFS NUMBERS AND GFS GRIDDED MOS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST IN RELATIVELY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES HARD TO TIME HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO WPC PROGS WHICH SEEMED A GOOD COMPROMISE. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AN UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AOA 3KFT...HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE OBSERVED DURING HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. VFR OVERNIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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