Area Forecast Discussion
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145 FXUS61 KPBZ 210205 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 905 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm weather will be briefly interrupted by some showers late Tuesday as a weak front crosses the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... The late eve update featured adjustments to the hourly trend of temperature as well as a downward tweak to morning lows based on that trend. Previous... Early eve update adjustments were primarily to cloud cover as a cirrostratus blanket is flowing over the Upper Ohio Region. The dry boundary layer will still promote some radiation and a decent initial temperature drop, but that and fog formation is expected to inhibited in the predawn by further high cloudiness and warm advection. No major changes were thus needed for low temperatures. Warm advection in advance of a weak front will support another warm day for Tuesday. Expect highs about 20 degrees above average once again before shower chances increase with the advance of the front later in the day. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The front will enter the region Tuesday night, but it is questionable whether it will survive the trek across as the temperature gradient slackens with time. There is some modest right entrance region support from the 300 mb jet overnight, but much of the moisture remains to the south and there is little isentropic help ahead of the front. Will continue with likely PoPs with the expectation of a light QPF event. A few showers may linger southeast of Pittsburgh after 12Z Wednesday before ending by midday. Flat ridging follows for Wednesday afternoon and evening, with a dry interlude. By late Wednesday night, developing low level southwest flow begins to induce isentropic lift and a slow increase in moisture. This may be enough to produce a touch of light rain or showers after 06Z Thursday, and have slight chance PoPs for this. Little change in airmass will result from the front, and have continued with temperatures well above climatology. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Not sure how much precipitation will be across the region on Thursday with a front north of the region. Have continued chance pops through this period, as well as Thursday night along the warm front associated with strong low pressure in the central plains. As warm as this week will be, Friday will likely be the warmest day of the week, with many locations possibly seeing 70 degrees. A cold front will bring showers along with a chance of thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday morning, as well as much more seasonable temperatures. Some scattered showers could persist into Saturday night, and depending on the timing, may end as a few snow showers. Expect dry and seasonable weather Sunday before another chance of rain comes with a system racing across the Tennessee Valley. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR can be expected through much of Tuesday although extensive high cloudiness will mar the sky. Sfc wind will veer to the south by daybreak as sfc high pressure gives way to an advancing trough. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions are likely with a Tuesday night trough and a late Friday/early Saturday cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 15

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