Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 221543 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1143 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AS A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY FINALLY SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. OPTED TO CUT BACK POPS SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH VERY LITTLE COVERAGE OVER OUR REGION. WHILE PWATS IN OUR SOUTHERNMOST ZONES WILL STILL BE IN THE 2 INCH RANGE EARLY TODAY...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THESE VALUES IS EXPECTED. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION FOR ISOLATED FLOODING IN THE HWO SINCE ANY TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS...BUT OVERALL THINK THE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL VERSUS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD ALSO BE RATHER LOW TODAY WITH VERY WEAK SHEAR AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY. LOSS OF HEATING AS WELL AS SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONT WILL ALLOW COVERAGE TO WANE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVELY BUILD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC SAT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROF BEING PUSHED OUT TO SEA. THIS CONTINUES THE TREND TOWARDS AN OVERALL DRIER FORECAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. AS FOR SAT...ENOUGH LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES THROUGH CENTRAL PA DURING THE MORNING AS A WEAK H5 TROF APPROACHES. EXPECTING THIS TO ACTIVATE SOME CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. TRIMMING BACK POPS AND SKY COVER SUN AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SUBSIDENCE WILL WORK TO KEEP ANY CONVECTION SUN AT BAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE...DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RELAX A LITTLE ON SUN MAKING IT A LITTLE LESS MUGGY. TAX && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HEIGHTS BUILD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE WELL ADVERTISED UPPER RIDGE WILL SETTLE INTO THE OH VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK DEFLECTING WEAK DISTURBANCES WELL TO THE NORTH. BY WEDS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS A BROAD TROF DIGS INTO THE PLAINS BRINGING A SWEEPING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES THURS. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE PROJECTED FRONT DAY 7 AS THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND STRUCTURE OF THIS SYSTEM. TAX && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WDPSRD MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRDLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTN. A CROSSING DISTURBANCE WL BRING SCT SHWRS AND A FEW TSTMS. WITH CLOUD COVER LMTG INSTBY...MENTIONED VCTS ONLY FOR SITES S OF PIT WHERE BETTER INSTBY IS PROGGED...WITH VCSH ELSW THOUGH A TSTM CAN/T BE RULED OUT. AFT PCPN DCRS AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS TNGT...EXP IFR FG TO DVLP AGAIN. OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... RSTRNS ARE PSBL SAT IN ISOLD-SCT TSTMS. OTRW...RSTRNS ARE PSBL IN ERLY MRNG BR. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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