Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 230011 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 711 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Warm weather will continue until the passage of a Saturday cold front.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The early eve update featured adjustments to cloud cover and hourly trends. Residual showers to the north of I 80 ended quickly early this evening as the supporting jet streak shifted eastward and shortwave ridging ensued. The moisture surge on the van of another weak shortwave will support increasing low cloudiness, and possible some isolated showers during the predawn hours. That weak trough may generate additional scattered showers on Thursday, but weak support with a weak wind field and instability will be the limiting precip factors. The chance for showers should suffice for the precip forecast. Warm temperatures continue under the warm advection regime. See climate section for record highs which may be in jeopardy.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Any scattered showers will taper from south to north as a warm front lifts northward across the area on Thursday night. This process will plant us firmly in the warm sector for much of Friday, and will result in dry weather and a peaking of the warm temperatures. Highs on Friday will soar into the 70s for the majority. The models are continuing the slower trend with the well- advertised frontal passage, which is now slated for Saturday morning or early afternoon. Have slowed PoP progression a bit as a result. The timing of the passage would still not seem to favor much of a severe threat given the expected lack of buoyancy, but with strong flow and plenty of shear to enhance updrafts, any storms may need to be monitored for wind gusts. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Behind the cold front, wraparound showers will drop in coverage Saturday night, with snow showers possible. Sunday will likely be the only completely dry day in the extended forecast. Model guidance is then a little uncertain with timing of a system on Monday before having surprisingly good agreement on Wednesday. Have stuck close to the Superblend through this portion of the forecast. After slightly below normal temperatures on Sunday, high temperatures will increase through the period, with 60s once again a possibility by the first day of March. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Condition deterioration is expected late tonight as another disturbances enhances overall ascent and improves the moisture supply. IFR ceilings and some isolated to scattered showers are forecast for early Thursday with increasing confidence. Late day improvement is anticipated with passage of the supporting shortwave, although MVFR, to low-end VFR stratocu may linger. .OUTLOOK... Widespread restrictions are likely with the approach and passage of a cold front on Friday night and earlyu Saturday.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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Record high temperatures for climate sites: Thu Fri -------- -------- PIT 70 (1922) 70 (1875,1906) ZZV 64 (2000) 70 (1961) MGW 68 (1996) 75 (1975) DUJ 63 (1985) 60 (1985) HLG 62 (2000) 63 (2016) PHD 69 (1975) 66 (1985)
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 15

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