Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 200909 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 409 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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WEAK RIDGE BREAKS DOWN LATER TODAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. WEAK CAA IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT AGAIN CLOUD COVER WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEST AND FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE REST OF THE REGION STILL WANT TO MAINTAIN A SATURATED LAYER AROUND 2500FT FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WHICH DOES NOT PRESENT MUCH HOPE FOR SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL BE TRICKY ON SUNDAY...TRYING TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE STRAOCU DECK WILL BE ERODED. SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WITH A LARGE SYSTEM TO THE WEST AND ANOTHER SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE AREA WILL LIE IN BETWEEN LIMITING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WAA WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER AGAIN MONDAY. A WEAK AND UNORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH MONDAY... ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN RIDGES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE WARMER AIR ALOFT MAY OCCUR BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS RESPOND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ANY PRECIP WILL OCCUR...SO FOR FORECAST WILL LEAVE OUT.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... STILL SEEING SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR MIDWEEK SYSTEM. THINK MUCH OF TUESDAY COULD BE DRY OR JUST LIGHT SHOWERS AS AREA WILL BE WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF OCCLUDED FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANGING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS. COULD SEE A BRIEF UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS MAIN TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY...BUT WIND DIRECTION NOT OPTIMAL FOR LAKE INFLUENCED SNOW SHOWERS. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG INVERSION AOB 4KFT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME LIGHT....MAINTAINING HIGH MVFR TO LOW VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE MINIMAL GIVEN THE SHALLOW DEPTH OF THE SATURATED LAYER AND ABSENCE OF ANY LIFT. OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STRATUS AND RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN...CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS...AND PERIODS OF LLWS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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