Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 261337 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 937 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. THIS FRONT WILL MEANDER NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...KEEPING OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
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FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH OF THE PA STATE LINE CURRENTLY...EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA BY MIDDAY. SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATER WITH A SURFACE FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD. SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE ERIE AND MOVING SOUTHWARD. HI-RES CAMS HAVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INITIALIZING EARLY AS THE BOUNDARY REACHES OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...NEAR 17-18Z. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE EARLY GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY...BUT HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH 18Z. INSTABILITY FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTH GROWS THIS AFTERNOON AS RELATIVELY SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM UP. STILL THINK THE DEWPOINTS IN THE NAM ARE A LITTLE TOO HIGH...SO INSTABILITY AND PW VALUES ARE OVERDONE...BUT DEWPOINTS TOUCHING 60 DEGREES IN EASTERN OHIO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ONCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...0-6KM SHEAR IN THE 50-60KT RANGE WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF REACHING SEVERE THRESHOLDS. THE SPC MARGINAL RISK HAS BEEN MAINTAINED SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH AND INTO EASTERN OHIO...WHILE A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED WESTWARD TO INCLUDE OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. ADDITIONALLY...THE HIGHER THAN AVERAGE PW VALUES AND STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO THE FRONT COULD BE CONDUCIVE TO TRAINING DOWNPOURS...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. MANY LOCATIONS ARE STILL RUNNING BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL...BUT IF ENOUGH RAIN FALLS QUICKLY...COULD NOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED WATER ISSUES. TAX
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&& .SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHOWERS/STORMS ARE PROJECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY...COOL ADVECTION SHOULD ENSURE A DRY WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR- AVERAGE TEMPERATURE. VAST DIFFERENCE IN OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ON THE THURSDAY FORECAST...WITH TODAY`S FRONT RETURNING IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES...WILL RELY MORE ON THE SUPERBLEND ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL INCORPORATE ENSEMBLE DATA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... BUILDING HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS PROGGED TO PROVIDE A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND...BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND INCRS PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE UPR OH REGION ONCE AGAIN. ACTUAL TRACK WL REMAIN QUESTIONABLE FOR A WHILE...SO SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE WAS EXCLUSIVELY UTILIZED FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AROUND KPIT AND MOVE SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF A SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35KTS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. STORMS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. WILL MENTION VCTS FOR KPIT AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND CONVECTION INITIATION IS CURRENTLY NOT TOO HIGH. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS A ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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