Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 031802 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 202 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER TODAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AFTERNOON FOCUS IS ON CONVECTION POTENTIAL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT SLATED FOR EVENING PASSAGE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. MODELS HAVE...AS USUAL...STRUGGLED WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROFILES...ALTHOUGH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS DEVELOPED AS ANTICIPATED. NEVERTHELESS...FILTERED INSOLATION WITH LOW TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY BALANCE WITH THE SHEAR FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORMS. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR STILL SEEMS TO BE THE TIMING OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS...SUBSIDENCE AREA OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING ACROSS OHIO AS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE SPC SLIGHT RISK PROGNOSIS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR NOW WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT COMING FROM DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THUS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARE SPARSE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR WILL DOMINATE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. ANY DEGRADED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE. && .EQUIPMENT... KPBZ RADAR REMAINS DOWN. TROUBLESHOOTING IS ONGOING AND RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN. GREGS KNOB NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS OFF THE AIR WITHA FAILED TRANSMITTER. RESTORATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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