Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 290446 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1246 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED FOR MID WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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FRONT IS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE CWA AS SEEN IN THE CURRENT DEWPOINT GRADIENT AS WE SIT IN THE LOW 60S EXTREME EAST TO LOW 40S NORTHWEST. DESPITE THE SFC FRONT BEING THROUGH...THE MID-LEVEL FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO FINALLY CLEAR THE SERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING A FEW MORE WEAK WAVES TO PASS SW TO NE ALONG THE MID-LEVEL BOUNDARY THROUGH MID-MORNING. ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE THIS IN THE TRENDS AS RADAR ECHOES HAVE FILLED BACK IN ACROSS OUR SOUTH AS FAR WEST AS THE OHIO RIVER. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE ACTUALLY DELAYED THE OVERALL DRYING IN THE FORECAST...KEEPING CHC POPS IN THE RIDGES UNTIL AROUND 15Z. MID- LEVEL TROF AXIS FINALLY PUSHES THE DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE CWA BY MIDDAY. DRY SLOT DOES ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRETY OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEARING DURING THE DAY BEFORE LLVL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN GIVING RISE TO A CU FIELD IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...KEEPING ANY LAKE INDUCED SHOWER ACTIVITY AT BAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. BY 00Z THURS...THE H7 TROF AXIS REACHES THE SERN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...VEERING THE LLVL FLOW TO WNW. WITH THE UPPER LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD POOL DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE ERIE WATERS WILL ENHANCE RAIN SHOWERS PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-80 THROUGH EARLY THURS MORNING. TAX
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SFC RIDGING IS EXPD TO BLD IN WED AND THU UNDER BROAD UPR TROFG ACRS THE ERN CONUS. A WK SHRTWV ROTATING THRU THE UPR TROF WL CROSS THE GT LKS RGN WED NGT. INCLUDED A BRIEF LOW CHC FOR SHWRS N OF I 80 AS WNW FLOW OVR LK ERI COULD PROVIDE SOME LK ENHANCEMENT FOR PCPN. BY FRI THE SFC RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AS THE UPR TROF DEEPENS. ANOTHER...STRONGER SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD FOR A LT FRI PASSAGE WITH INCRG SHWR CHCS THRU THE DAY. NR SEASONAL AVG TEMPS WED SHOULD DCRS TO 5-10 DEG BLO AVG BY LT WK. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING IN THE MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE LT FRI SHRTWV. THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES ON HOW FAST THE COLD AIR WILL CROSS THE AREA. COLD DAY SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND MORNING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS IN SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING 1-2 HOURS OF RAIN AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. ANY MVFR OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE ISOLATED IN NATURE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND WIND GUSTS DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH PRIMARILY HIGH CLOUDS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS REMAINING. DIURNAL CUMULUS IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ADDITION TO WIND GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KTS. OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE NXT WIDESPREAD RESTRICTION POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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