Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 020407 AAC AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1207 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL NEARLY STALL OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH RAINFALL CHANCES MAINLY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL REQUIRE SOME CHANGES TO POPS. WILL KEEP EVERYTHING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE CATEGORY AS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS. MODELS WANT TO SHOVE THE PRECIPITATION AND DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SQUEEZES IN FROM THE EAST AND OVER SPREADS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF MY FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IN THE CLOUD FORECAST IS LOW WITH STILL A GOOD DEAL OF LOWER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND A PLETHORA OF SHORTWAVES REVOLVING AROUND THE CUTOFF 500 LOW. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH AN OPTIMISTIC CLOUD FORECAST...AT LEAST FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. OBVIOUSLY CLOUDS WILL BE CRITICAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...MAKING FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURES FORECAST AS WELL. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT... WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE CLOUDS BACK OVER THE AREA AGAIN. SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN RIDGES. CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL CONITNUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS THINKING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAKING AN EASTWARD TRACK TO OUR NORTH...BEFORE EXITING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP THE BULK OF MOISTURE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH. SCATTERED SHRA WILL EXPAND TO AN AREA SOUTH OF A PHD-LBE LINE ON WEDNESDAY. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT. DESPITE MOISTURE CONTENT/PWATS INCREASING ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ADD A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WHICH WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS PRECIP TOTALS. BY THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WEST OF THE RIDGES TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS TO OUR SOUTH AND A RETURN FEED SETS UP BEHIND THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH CENTER. THIS WILL ALLOW BETTER INSTABILITY TO RETURN...AND SHOWER CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST CWA- WIDE. ALSO REINTRODUCED THUNDER CHANCES ON THIS DAY WITH SOME DEEPER CAPE PROFILES STARTING TO SHOW UP ON SOUNDINGS. ACTIVITY WILL DIURNALLY DECREASE TOWARDS THURSDAY EVENING. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN IN TEMPERATURES...WITH READINGS GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY. GENERALLY KEPT NUMBERS IN LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA IS PICTURED FOR FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEGRADE AND LIFT OUT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED PATTERN BUT THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... DEGRADED CONDITIONS...INCLUDING IFR CEILINGS...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURES REMAINS TRAPPED OVER MOST OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO SUPPORT LIGHT...BUT FAIRLY SPOTTY SHOWERS A IT PASSES OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. RIDGING ALOFT MAY OFFER SOME IMPROVEMENT ON TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SO MUCH RESIDUAL MOISTURE LOCKED OVER MOST PORTS. WILL OFFER A MORE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST...BUT HESITANTLY. .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CONDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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