Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 230910 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 510 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A quick moving low pressure will bring rain showers mostly north of Pennsylvania and Ohio turnpikes Sunday night. Dry weather returns through mid week, however daytime highs will be in the 50s...which is below normal for this time of year. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Winds have backed to west or southwesterly this morning, allowing for modest warm advection to take place. After daybreak, strong southwesterly flow and insolation will allow temperatures to warm rather quickly. Highs Sunday should reach low 60s by afternoon, mid to upper 50s in the high terrain and across the north. Late tonight, cloud cover will increase across the north as a clipper system streams in from the west. This system will accelerate as it approaches, ultimately getting absorbed by the large filling low residing north of Maine. Rain will initially hold off until after sunset tonight, but will quickly spread to areas north of I-80 and eventually into the ridges overnight into Monday morning. Temperatures will remain warm enough to preclude any mention of snow. Gusty southwesterly winds will continue overnight as a strong low-level jet streak will accompany the passage of the low. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Cool northwest flow will re-establish in the wake of the clipper and associated cold front. Can`t completely rule out lake-enhanced showers across the north Monday, as the cooler air moves over the relatively warm Lake Erie waters. Any lingering showers that do exist Monday afternoon should diminish quickly Monday night as drier air filters in with the surface high encroaching from the northwest. High pressure at the surface will then keep the forecast area dry through at least early Wednesday. Persistent northwest flow aloft will bring 850mb temperatures back below 0C through the short terms, which will aid in keeping surface temperatures below average through the middle of the week. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A shortwave trough digging into the western Great Lakes will bring the next organized chance of precipitation back to the area by late Wednesday. Model guidance fairly consistent with this feature, so likely PoPs were maintained for Thursday. This late week system, along with another cold front Saturday will re- establish deep northwest flow, which will keep temperatures relegated to near or just below the seasonal averages through the period. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High confidence forecast. Area of altocu will advect over the region through the morning hours before vacating. High clouds then take over until moisture increases ahead of the next low pressure system. Clouds will be MVFR after 03Z Monday at FKL and DUJ with VCSH. Visibilities also shall fall into the MVFR category if the aforementioned airports experience a shower. There is still question how scattered showers will be at other terminals. It does not appear MGW or ZZV will see any restrictions due to weather. Winds shall stay around 7-11kts from the SW then veer to the W around daybreak. Gusts up to 20 kts are possible during the 16-20Z time period. Low level wind shear continues to be highlighted by several high resolution models after 0Z Monday. If the trend continues this will need to be inserted into the forecast. .OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sunday Night / Monday...MVFR possible with showers. LLWS also possible Tuesday - Wednesday...VFR Thursday...MVFR with rain showers likely && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.