Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 221646 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1246 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracking toward the Southeastern United States will continue to fuel rain chances over the ridges for the start of the new week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Changes for the early afternoon update were primarily cosmetic and focused on the rain-chance areas south of I 70 as timing needed adjustment based on radar and high res trends. Surface high pressure under northern stream troughing is maintaining dry, but cool weather for the majority of the immediate area, but more light rain is streaming toward the I 68 corridor as moisture continues to be shunted through the eastern flank of a deepening Lower Ohio Valley low. The northern trough axis is projected to complete passage across the region tonight and push rain potential southward while cool and dry high pressure supports overnight lows a few degrees under the seasonal averages. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Meanwhile, the southern low is forecast to dig toward the Southeastern CONUS before progressing up the East Coast during the first half the week. This scenario should confine rain chances to the I 68 vicinity, and over the ridges and eastern CWA periphery during the period. Seasonably cool temperature will begin to moderate by Tuesday as heights rise in response to Western Conus troughing. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Temperature is progged to rise 10 to 20 degrees above average for the latter half of the week as flow amplifies as broad, cold low pressure develops over the western CONUS. Shortwave energy and resulting moist southwest flow aloft will fuel rain chances, best potential for which currently looks to be on Wednesday night with the crossing of a negatively tilted trough axis. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low end VFR and MVFR stratus will continue to degrade conditions this afternoon as will light rain at MGW. By evening, the supporting upper trough is projected to shift east and improve conditions to VFR at all ports via building sfc high. .Outlook... The next chance for general restrictions is expected with mid week low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 15

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