Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 142200 AAB AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 600 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A CROSSING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO BRING SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THE DRY AND COOL WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH LIMITED MIXING TODAY AND KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN FAIRLY WELL EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR IS A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT HAS SNUCK UP THE TERRAIN OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO TUCKER/GARRETT/PRESTON COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...AN OPTIMAL RADIATION NIGHT LOOKS TO BE IN STORE WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR 40F...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. A FROST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR FOREST COUNTY...WHERE THEY WERE ALREADY LARGELY IN THE MID 30S LAST NIGHT...WITH TONIGHT LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST AS COLD. FARTHER SOUTH...FROST COVERAGE LOOKS MORE PATCHY/LOW LYING/OUTLYING AREAS IN ADJOINING COUNTIES AS WELL AS IN THE LOWER TERRAIN AROUND THE RIDGES. ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR FARTHER SOUTH WILL BE THE ADVECTION OF A BIT HIGHER DEWPOINTS TOWARD TUCKER/GARRETT. SHOULD THESE LINGER AND STRATUS REMAIN...LOWS WILL LIKELY STAY UP A FEW DEGREES HERE. FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE MONTH SO FAR...HOWEVER FROST DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LARGELY UNLIKELY AWAY FROM THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST ZONES AND DEEPER/MORE ISOLATED VALLEYS. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CLDS WL INCR LTR MON AS AN ADVNG SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT MOVES INTO THE GT LKS AND RTNS SHWR CHCS BY MON EVE/NGT. NUDGED POPS UP FM PIT NWD WHERE BETTER UPR SPPRT AND MOISTURE IS PROGGED. THIS SYSTEM WL QUICKLY EXIT BY TUE MRNG AS HIGH PRES BLDS ACRS THE GT LKS UNDER A COOL...WK UPR TROF. TEMPS ARE EXPD TO AVG 5-10 DEG BLO SEASONAL LVLS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SFC HIGH PRES...UNDR BROAD ERN CONUS TROFG...IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN DRY AND COOL WEATHER UNTIL A SHRTWV EMERGES OVR THE NRN PLAINS AND INITIATES WARM ADVCTN FOR POINTS EWD BY WEEKS END. TEMP MODERATION IS THUS FORECAST BY SATURDAY...AND INCRSD POPS CAN BE ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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NIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT EXPECTED WITH LIFR-MVFR FOG DEVELOPING BEFORE DAWN. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE VFR. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... AN ADVNG CDFNT WL LIKELY BRING RSTRNS MON NGT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ009. WV...NONE. && $$

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