Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 242256 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 556 PM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front tonight will bring rain and gusty wind. Temperature behind the front will drop back to the averages by Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... An early eve update was issued to adjust the aviation section. The cold front will advance over East Central Ohio around midnight. accompanied by showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Timing of the frontal passage will not be conducive to prolonged severe threat, although modest buoyancy and deep shear along the boundary could support strong to isolated severe elements into eastern Ohio. SPC has maintained a slight risk for severe weather across most Ohio counties and a marginal risk east towards Pittsburgh. Strong and gusty winds are likely as the front passes and again behind as the pressure gradient tightens and cold advection begins. A lull in precipitation is expected behind the front Saturday evening. Eventually, any remaining moisture will be squeezed out in the form of scattered rain showers changing over to snow by Saturday night. Temperatures will fall behind the front tonight, and continue to drop through Saturday with high temperatures occuring very early. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Upper-level trough will swing through Saturday night, invigorating snow shower chances through pre-dawn Sunday. Westerly fetch and eroding moisture will limit snow production as the system begins to pull away. In general, less than an inch is expected across northern counties and into the mountains. Little to no accumulation is expected elsewhere. Zonal flow behind the trough will bring in high pressure at the surface. This will suppress any lingering snow showers Sunday morning and should begin to erode cloud cover. After falling steadily through Sunday morning, temperatures should moderate Sunday to near normal values. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Broad southwest flow aloft will continue until midweek, when the pattern amplifies slightly and a shallow trough develops over the northeast U.S. One weak piece of energy in the midlevels may provide some light precipitation on Monday. Deeper moisture flow and an approaching shortwave will provide better chances on Tuesday and Wednesday. Leaned heavily on Superblend guidance as models like the GFS and ECMWF are still struggling a bit with timing and strength details. A relatively quiet Thursday will be followed by a possible clipper on Friday. Above normal temperatures early in the week will be followed by normal or slightly below normal temperatures for Thursday and Friday in the developing trough. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions can be expected through midnight, but deterioration will occur thereafter as a cold front spawns restrictions with showers and some thunderstorms. Sfc wind will ease this evening as mixing diminishes, but the tightening pressure gradient should maintain sustained speed of 10 to 15kts. A llws mention was included as wind above the boundary layer will be strengthening as the midwestern trough digs eastward. Wind will veer to the w in the wake of the front. Sfc gusts of 25 to 30 will again be possible as MVFR stratocu and sct showers linger into the aftn. .OUTLOOK... Occasional restrictions are again possible as the unsettled weather pattern is maintained for the first half of the week. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 15

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