Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 251402 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1002 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Showers and scattered thunderstorms can be expected with a Monday cold front.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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No major changes were needed for the late morning update as dry high pressure will continue to suppress clouds and precip into Monday. A warming column/developing warm advection is should offset initially efficient radiation tonight. Overnight lows were thus projected several degrees below most guidance, especially over eastern counties, but not quite as cold as last night.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A deepening mid level trough is projected to close over the Northern Great Lakes on Monday as it drives a cold front across the Upper Ohio. Likely to categorical precip probabilities are forecast with this eventuality, while increasing deep layer shear may support possible severe thunderstorms. That potential will be dependant on timing, surface dewpoints, clouds, and resulting instability levels, magnitude of which does not look strong enough to initiate any alarms today. Showers are forecast to exit eastward with the front during the evening with dry and cooler conditions following on Tuesday. By Wednesday, the closed low is progged to dig southeastward across the Great Lakes, and increase clouds and shower chances for the immediate area. Temperature about 5 degrees under the rapidly falling averages was forecast using Superblend guidance.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Quite a bit of uncertainty in the extended as models are in a bit of disarray with strength and movement of closed low through late week. ECMWF is alone in wobbling closed low over the central Appalachians then actually retrogrades it northwest. Other models begin to open and lift the low to New England by the weekend. For now, near-average temperature and minimal rain chances were forecast with less than average confidence.
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&& .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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General VFR is forecast through Monday morning with condition deterioration thereafter in response to precip with an approaching cold front. .OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The next chance for restricition is expected under deepening mid week low pressure.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 15

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