Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 230513 AAC AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 113 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and humid again today, with the risk for showers and storms continuing. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Only minor changes to the overnight period. PoPs have been updated in line with the latest satellite and radar trends and hires model guidance. Refreshed overnight temperatures. The risk for showers and storms will continue today as a shortwave trough, diving across the Great lakes, helps to push a boundary southward. An important factor today will be the amount of sunshine and the timing of the aforementioned shortwave. If convection does develop, it appears it would be later in the day and be enhanced to the south of the lingering surface boundary. If the track of the wave holds, the focus for organized and stronger activity would be over the southern half of the region. Have indicated higher PoPs over this portion of the forecast area. Still seeing differences in model solutions due to convective feedback issues and also the placement of the upper level energy and how that large scale ascent interacts with the southward moving surface front. Due to these complications decided not to go any higher than low likely PoPs.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Activity wanes tonight with the loss of daytime heating, but again expect a muggy night with temps well into the 60s and lower 70s. Mid level trough sweeps through Monday afternoon so this will be the last round of showers/storms before a welcome break occurs. Upper level heights will rise on Tuesday, and a broad surface high will build into the Great Lakes. This will keep the area dry with increased sunshine and seasonable temperatures. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Ridge will shift toward Eastern CONUS on Wednesday, leading to dry weather and a gradual warming through Thursday. Deepening upper low over Hudson Bay will swing a boundary over the Great Lakes, returning chances for showers/storms in northwest flow to end the week. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... IFR or lower cig/vis restrictions will improve by mid-morning. Scattered showers and storms may provide brief restrictions during the afternoon. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions will continue through Monday, with VFR prevailing thereafter. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.