Area Forecast Discussion
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684 FXUS61 KPBZ 201933 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 233 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm weather is expected under a high pressure ridge through early Wednesday. Rain chances return with a Wednesday afternoon cold front and will continue through Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Record warmth will continue across the entire region this afternoon. More information is available in the climate section below. Any passing showers near I-80 should quickly shift north,. Clouds will increase overnight as a cold front approaches from the west. Have slowed up the arrival of precipitation slightly with the front, although temperatures will remain very warm overnight and all precipitation will fall as rain. Cannot rule out the chance of an isolated thunderstorm south of I-70 with the frontal passage. Enough cold air will move in behind the front that temperatures will begin to fall during the day as the front crosses the region. Even so, most places should have highs in the 60s, if not reaching 70 degrees, which could still allow for a record high or two to be broken. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The cold front will get hung up south of the region, allowing additional moisture to get pumped into the region. While temperatures will remain above normal, there could be some precipitation type issues north of Pittsburgh. Models are still showing some disagreement in the temperature structure, and have continued mention of snow and freezing rain depending on whether a warm layer aloft manages to develop. This threat should be primarily late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The best chance for dry weather after tonight looks like it will come Thursday night, and even that chance will be short lived. The cold front will finally sink south, but a front with the next low pressure system will begin to move in from the west by Friday morning. This will bring a chance of rain back to the forecast, although northern locations could have a few snowflakes mix in. Temperatures will remain warm into Friday, with highs in the 50s and 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Several shortwaves will pass through the mean flow and could result in additional hydrologic concerns through the weekend. Model differences certainly do exist during this time, but rain chances were kept in the likely range for much of the weekend. A definitive cold front should finally move across the region Sunday, eventually yielding dry and cooler weather into the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions with gusty southwest winds will continue through the afternoon. Conditions will start to deteriorate at the end of the TAF period as a cold front approaches. OUTLOOK... The risk for widespread restrictions returns late Wednesday and Wednesday night with the passage of a cold front. && .CLIMATE... Record Highs are forecast today and possibly Wednesday. Location Feb20 Record Feb21 Record Pittsburgh 68 (1891) 73 (1997) Zanesville 71 (1939) 72 (1997) Morgantown 70 (1994) 75 (1874) DuBois 61 (2016) 60 (1983) Wheeling 68 (1930/2016) 68 (1930) New Philadelphia 69 (1994) 66 (2017) Warmest low ever recorded at Pittsburgh in the month of February: 59 on Feb 11, 1932 (this has already been tied today) Warmest high ever recorded at Pittsburgh in the month of February: 77 on Feb 8, 1900 (temperature was 75 as of 2pm) && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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