Area Forecast Discussion
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853 FXUS61 KPBZ 280421 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1221 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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WITH 1215AM UPDATE...UPDATED HOURLY TRENDS FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVAL. CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST OHIO SOUTHWARD INTO KENTUCKY. NOT SURE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL MANAGE TO PERSIST ALL THE WAY TO THE EAST...BUT HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH THE ARRIVING LINE OF SHOWERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SHOULD MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY RETURNING SHOWERS TO AREA. AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH MORE ORGANIZED PCPN TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTN WITH THE INITIAL WAVES EXIT...THOUGH SHOWER CHCS SHOULD PERSIST WITH THE SFC LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. A FEW TSTMS ARE PSBL THURSDAY S OF I 80...THOUGH INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED USING THE LATEST CONSENSUS MOS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... KEPT HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS GOING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE LOW CENTER SLOWLY TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH FURTHER SUPPORT PROVIDED BY SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THUNDER PROSPECTS LOOK MEAGER WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY AND INSUFFICIENT LAPSE RATES. RAINFALL RATES WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH EITHER WITH PWATS GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR LESS. COVERAGE OF SHRA DECREASES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY AND H500 HEIGHTS RISE. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS TIME. THE NAM AND THE ECMWF ARE A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING MOISTURE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS. THE GFS IS STILL SLOWER BUT SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS THE FASTER SOLUTION. WILL ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR SATURDAY FOR NOW...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FURTHER INCREASE BY FUTURE SHIFTS. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL IN THE NORTH...WHERE EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP VALUES A BIT COOLER...TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTH. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ON FRIDAY WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS COOLER THAN THURSDAY...WITH RECOVERY ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND AT LEAST SOME SUN. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A BIT MORE CERTAIN OF PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT NOW...AS GFS IS COMING AROUND TO THE WETTER IDEA OF THE ECMWF AND THE ENSEMBLES. HAVE LIKELY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS AN H500 TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S...AND TUESDAY APPEARS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE PAYS A BRIEF VISIT. BEYOND TUESDAY...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE FROM CANADA. RELIED A BIT MORE HEAVILY ON SUPERBLEND SUGGESTIONS WITH SOME TWEAKS HERE. TEMPERATURES LOOK MORE OR LESS SEASONABLY REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LEANED ON SUPERBLEND HERE AS WELL. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH SFC RIDGING. CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR...WITH PATCHY IFR...LATE TONIGHT AND THU AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES ACROSS THE OH VLY RGN RESULTING IN RAIN. A FEW TSTMS ARE PSBL MAINLY S OF PIT THU THOUGH INSTABILITY/TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED... PRECLUDING A TAF MENTION. .OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY INTO FRIDAY...AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT/SUN...AS AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THE REGION. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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