Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 311359 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 959 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM...HUMID CONDITIONS AND SPARSE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WEAK UPPER LOW...EVIDENT MAINLY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY OR RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST TODAY. WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...THIS WAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON BUT WARMING IN THE MID LEVELS MAY CAP ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SAVE FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE POPS TODAY...WITH VERY LOW END CHANCE POPS CARRIED. WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 80`S BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT WEAK MIXING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY KEEP TEMPS FROM HITTING 90 TODAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND TONIGHT SHOULD PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE AND BASED ON A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS THE BUILDING OF A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY. DESPITE THIS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS IN PLACE...KEEPING POPS LIMITED TO SLIGHT REALM...EVEN AS AN EMBEDDED WEAK TROF PASSES THROUGH THE RIDGE TUESDAY EVENING. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN AMPLIFIES BY MID-WEEK REINFORCING THE TREND TO DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE IMPRESSIVE EASTERN CONUS RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES REACHING INTO EASTERN CANADA. CANNOT RULE OUT DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHES A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC. STILL...LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL PLAY OUT LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...NEARLY THE SAME EVERYDAY...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NEXT REAL CHANCE OF A RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEM FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA COULD COME WITH A FRONT SLATED SOMETIME EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TAX && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... GENERAL VFR INTO THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON MAINLY NEAR THE RIDGES...BUT NOTHING EXPECTED AT ANY PORT. PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG EXPECTED BEFORE SUNRISE OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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