Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 290404 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1204 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MORE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... WITH MIDNIGHT UPDATE...UPDATED FOR HOURLY TRENDS OF TEMPERATURE AND SKY COVER. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. COLD FLOW OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED STRATOCUMULUS FORMATION OVER THE NORTHERN AND RIDGE ZONES TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...UPPER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALREADY ENCROACHING OVER UPPER OHIO VALLEY AIRSPACE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARD THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WARM ADVECTION IS ADVANCE OF THAT DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPORT A MONDAY WARM UP TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE AVERAGES...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE AS EVENING APPROACHES. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IS LIKELY TO SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCE AND RESULTING PRECIP SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY ARE QUESTIONABLE ESPECIALLY AS RELATED TO LATE NIGHT WEATHER...SO CHANGES WERE MINIMAL. A SERIES OF SUCH DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ARE PROJECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR CHANCES POPS AND BARELY SUB AVERAGE TEMPS ALREADY PROGGED. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED PATTERN. WITH A FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO NAIL DOWN DRY PERIODS THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MVFR STRATOCU SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AT DUJ AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN. PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PIT AS WINDS DIMINISH. AFTER ANY MORNING FOG...VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE FRONT. .OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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