Area Forecast Discussion
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648 FXUS61 KPBZ 051845 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 245 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS ANTICIPATED...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS INCREASED WITH DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS ABOUT 500J/KG OF CAPE...WHICH HAS GENERATED A FEW SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF PIT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH POPS DIMINISHING TO THE NORTH AND WEST AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST. TONIGHT THE LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SETTLE NEAR THE DELMARVA COAST. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BUT THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE SITUATED SOUTH AND EAST OF I-70/I-79 WHERE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOISTURE IS PRESENT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A CHANGE IN LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUD COVER HOLDING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. OUR WESTERNMOST ZONES MAY SCATTER OR CLEAR OUT TOWARD DAYBREAK AS THE BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH FRIDAY WHICH SUPPORTS KEEPING LIKELY POPS IN THE RIDGES AND HIGH CHANCE POPS BACK TOWARD PITTSBURGH...AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE FILLING UPPER LOW. AGAIN...THINK COVERAGE WILL INCREASE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SO POPS ARE HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON. 850HPA TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS THE LOW FILLS SO TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MAY BE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO BE ABSORBED BACK INTO THE UPPER PATTERN AND PUSHED EAST AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE POPS FOR A BRIEF TIME SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL CONSENSUS IS RATHER GOOD WHICH SUPPORTS LIKELY POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAYS TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST CLOSER TO OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM 850HPA TEMPS RETURN. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE LARGELY BE DRY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITIONS OVER THE AREA. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR UNTIL THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY. WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW VFR / HIGH MVFR AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A HANDFUL OF STORMS MAY PRODUCE A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL THIS AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NIGHT COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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