Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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FXUS61 KPBZ 160427
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1227 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will keep the area dry on Saturday. A cold front
will bring another round of rain Saturday night. Below average
temperatures and snow returns early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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KEY MESSAGES:
- Clouds will decrease throughout the early morning under weak
riding.
- Quiet, dry conditions will persist through Saturday evening.
Adjustments have been made to clouds and temperatures as
lingering low-lvl clouds start to decrease in coverage as
under weak ridging. Areas within the ridges and near I-80 will
likely hold on to clouds the longest due to upsloping and lake
induced moisture.
Breezy conditions are expected today with diurnal heating and
as a low pressure system tracks to our northwest. Probability of
20mph wind gusts is high across the region, however 25mph to
30mph gusts will likely be confided to the ridges and northwest
of Pittsburgh.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
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KEY MESSAGES:
- Shower chances return with a Saturday night cold front
- Temperatures Saturday should be warmer than average, returning
to seasonal appropriate temperatures Sunday.
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Weak high pressure will maintain dry conditions for much of
Saturday. With plenty of insolation and weak warm advection in
advance of the next cold front, temperatures Saturday should
approach 60 degrees.
Digging trough will pivot a cold front across the region
Saturday night. Since most of the large-scale lift will be
generally north of Pittsburgh, the highest precipitation
probabilities are set around and north of I-80, where there is a
>50% chance of measurable (0.01 inches) of precipitation.
Behind the front, will be the return of more typical weather for
the upper Ohio Valley in Spring - cloudy conditions and
temperatures in the 50`s.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Colder pattern returns Sunday into Monday with a large
advancing trough.
- Snow shower chances return Monday and Tuesday
- Wind chill values will be abnormally cold early Tuesday (teens
in the lower elevations/single digits to below zero in the
higher terrain).
- Above average temperatures return mid-week.
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Long range ensemble models favor a cold pattern across the Ohio
River Valley early next week as a large upper-level trough
advances across the Great Lakes. Arctic air will drive
high and low temperatures to be below average by a few degrees.
With northwest flow, expect snow showers to return due to lake
enhancement and upsloping. With the current sun angle, snow
shower accumulation will likely be confided to the overnight
period and be generally focused near I-80 and elevations above
2kft. Probability of 0.1 inches of snow early Monday morning is
70% or higher in these concentrated areas.
With a strong gradient wind associated with the low and cold
advection, expected wind chill values to be abnormally cold
early Tuesday. Teens in the lower terrain, single digits to
below freezing in the ridges of PA/WV.
Models have been consistent that near to above average
temperatures will return mid-week with a building ridge to our
west.
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.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Areas of MVFR cigs will continue overnight, with the latest PIT
00Z and model soundings showing moisture below a subsidence
inversion. These clouds should continue to slowly erode as a
ridge of high pressure begins to build in, though they are
expected to persist the longest across areas from FKL-BTP-LBE
and point east. The clouds should clear by late morning as the
ridge moves across the Upper Ohio Valley region.
Mid and high level clouds are expected to increase later today
as a cold front approaches from the Upper Great Lakes region.
This front will cross the Upper Ohio Valley region tonight
through early Sunday, with showers and MVFR restrictions
expected. In addition, SW wind gusts to 20kt are expected with
mixing and a tightening pressure gradient ahead of the front. A
WSHFT to the NW, with additional gusts to 20kt are expected
after the late Saturday night FROPA.
.Outlook...
Gusty NW wind is expected Sunday behind the exiting cold front.
Restrictions and scattered snow showers return Monday night and
Tuesday with a reinforcing cold front and subsequent upper
troughing. VFR returns Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure
builds in.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...WM