Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 260713 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 213 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH CHANGING TO SNOW. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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QUITE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS COLD AIR HAS NOT REACHED AREAS SOUTH OF I-70 WITH RAIN STILL BEING REPORTED. STILL EXPECTING A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LOWERED CLOSER TO 1-3 INCHES THIS AREA WITH THE HIGHER END AMOUNTS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PRESTON AND TUCKER LATER TODAY. ELSEWHERE FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. SNOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF A KZZV TO KPIT AND KLBE LINE. MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND CLOSES OFF OFFSHORE OF NEW JERSEY KEEPING LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND THE END TIME OF ADVISORY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO NORMALS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE ONLY DRY 24 HOUR PERIOD FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONE PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY FOR THIS SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME IMPORTANT TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH NEXT CLIPPER AND DELIVERY OF EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR INTO THE UPPER OHO VALLEY. WPC PROGS LOOKS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SAVE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WV NEAR KMGW WHERE THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS YET TO OCCUR. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AFTER DAYBREAK...AS ENERGY WITH THE UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS TO THE COAST. THAT BEING SAID...AN AREA OF WRAP-AROUND SNOW MAY BRING VSBYS BACK DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS IT PIVOTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND THE TAF SITES. FOR NOW...WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH THE TIMING OF ANY TEMPO CONDITIONS BUT WILL HOLD ONTO PREVAILING IFR UNTIL 21Z OR SO. E-NE WIND WILL REMAIN UNDER 10KTS OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY BACKING TOWARD THE W-NW AS THE LOW DEPARTS. WIND GUSTS TO 15KTS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. NEXT WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-073-074-076. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ001>003.
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&& $$

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