Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 281334 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 934 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MAINLY DRY AND WARM TODAY. DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF PITTSBURGH IS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH. CONTINUED SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES AHEAD OF FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER DEW POINTS WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE NORTH BUT AS FRONT WASHES OUT THIS EVENING LESS IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT TO THE MASON DIXON LINE. MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY LOW TO MID 80S. SURFACE HIGH/H500 RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS UPSTATE NEW YORK OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL START TO PUSH MOISTURE AND SOME CLOUDS BACK NORTHWARD. ONLY A STRAY SHOWER FOR THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES POSSIBLE BEFORE DAYBREAK. TEMPS CLOSE TO MODEL MOS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING ALLOWING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO KICK BACK IN...RESULTING IN THE RETURN OF MOISTURE. OPTED FOR COVERAGE WORDING IN WEATHER GRIDS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY INSTABILITY AND WILL GENERALLY LACK A FOCUSING MECHANISM. LIKELY POPS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE OF THE WV/MD/PA MOUNTAINS...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE LOWER TERRAIN. WITH THE FRONT WELL OFF TO THE WEST STILL FRIDAY EVENING...KEEP MUCH LOWER POPS OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BLOOM SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MUCH COOLER SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE. DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR DAILY RAIN CHANCES. HIGHEST CHANCE POPS RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THIS IS WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OCCUR. A CUT- OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI WILL FEED GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN AGAIN TO THE EAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN DISTURBED UNTIL THEN. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CU RULE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CU IS POSSIBLE AT MOST PORTS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH UNDER BUILDING RIDGING. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR THE SOUTHERN PA BORDER SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS IN PLACE AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM NEAR MGW...THOUGH CHANCES PRECIP ARE TOO LOW FOR A TAF MENTION. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT. .OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY... WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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