Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 171326 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 826 AM EST Wed Jan 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Well below normal temperatures and dry conditions can be expected today with warmer temperatures later this week and into the weekend as high pressure remains in control. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Recent satellite imagery reveals an expansive cloud deck persisting over the area under the upper-level trough swinging through. With this in mind, some alterations to current and forecast sky conditions were made for this morning through the afternoon hours. With the morning sounding showing the dendritic growth zone scraping the surface, any cloud would be able to produce light flurries through midday. Clouds will begin to scatter this afternoon, but any real clearing won`t occur until warm air advection kicks in later this evening. Modest clearing is expected west to east overnight, but clouds and potential for light snow will last longest over the highest elevations. Despite high pressure nosing in at the surface and modest warming in the mid-levels, the pressure gradient aloft will lend itself to maintaining wind, especially over the Ridges tonight. This, combined with low temperatures currently forecast, could drop wind chills to below -10 degrees. We may need a Wind Chill Advisory for at least the higher terrain tonight. A mention has been placed in the HWO.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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A warming and drying trend will commence on Thursday with temps back to normal or slightly higher by Friday.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Warm advection will strengthen through the weekend ahead of the next system approaching from the west with temperatures climbing to around 15 degrees above normal on average across the region. Increasing cloud coverage on Sunday as moisture advection ramps up...with light precipitation possible. Latest model consensus progs frontal passage on Monday afternoon...with the best chance for rain along and ahead of the cold front. Temperatures on Tuesday will lower back to near normal behind the front. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MVFR stratocu, in cold advection and upper troughing, is expected at most ports into the afternoon. Cig should begin to improve from west to east as the progresses, back to VFR levels. .OUTLOOK... Restriction potential returns over the weekend with approaching low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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