Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 041923 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 223 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HAVE CLEARED ADDITIONAL COUNTIES FROM THE FLOOD WATCH WHERE FLOODING IS NO LONGER OCCURRING OR EXPECTED AS ADDITIONAL PRECIP WOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. COLD AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE REGION WITH SNOW REPORTS AT KHLG AND AT KPIT THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. EXPECT SOME SLEET TO ALSO OCCUR THIS EVENING DURING THE TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTH INTO THE RIDGES...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE RIDGES BEFORE PRECIP TURNS TO ALL SNOW. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING ON SNOW AMOUNTS BUT DID LOWER AMOUNTS A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE ADVISORY AS NEW MODEL RUNS ARE JUST A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH CORE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS...AS STILL EXPECT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ALONG THE STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. ONLY CAVEAT IS IF PRECIP STAYS A MIX OF SLEET ACROSS THE RIDGES LONGER THIS EVENING AMOUNTS COULD BE HELD DOWN...BUT STILL IN WARNING RANGE. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION EAST THURSDAY MORNING AND DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. AREAS NORTH OF PITTSBURGH WILL SEE LESSER AMOUNTS AS DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING. IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF COLD AIR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH LOWS SINGLE DIGITS FAR NORTH TO NEAR 20 FAR SOUTH. LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS CORE OF COLD AIR AT 850MB TRANSITIONS ACROSS REGION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... WEATHER PATTERN QUIETS DOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST AND KICKS OUT THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THURS NIGHT AND SKIES WILL BEGIN CLEARING FROM THE WEST. REMNANT SKY COVER WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH CALM WINDS AND THE PRESENCE OF A FRESH SNOW PACK...FOR AT LEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...ALL SIGNS POINT TO DECOUPLING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO CRATER WELL BELOW AVERAGE. MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SHOW AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS HOLDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FRI...WHICH WOULD DISRUPT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THINK THIS ROUTE IS A BIT CONSERVATIVE...AND HAVE HELD LOWS BELOW THOSE NUMBERS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER AND CLEARER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NEXT SYSTEM POISED TO STREAM NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. NAM/ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS RELATIVELY DRY SYSTEM...AND THEREFORE FOLLOWED THIS TO INTRODUCE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY EVENING. TAX && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET WITH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FEATURING PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. POPS WERE FORECAST GENERALLY BELOW CHANCE CLIMO NUMBERS USING GFS TIMING...BUT LONG TERM CONFIDENCE IS MINIMAL WITH DOUBTS ABOUT TIMING AND MOISTURE SUPPLY. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE AND MOS. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COPIOUS MOISTURE FLOWS NORTH AND GENERATES PRECIPITATION ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. FOR TERMINALS NORTH AND WEST OF LBE/MGW...SNOW WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EVENT. AT LBE/MGW CURRENT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BANDING TONIGHT COULD RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS. FAR NORTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE MODERATE SNOW...BUT MVFR/IFR SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH LOW CIGS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK FROM WEST TO EAST. TAX .OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONT. && .HYDROLOGY... THE COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT AND DEVELOPING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE CHEAT... MONONGAHELA AND YOUGHIOGHENY RIVER BASINS. THESE RISES WILL AID IN MOVING ICE INTO AREAS WHERE ICE JAMS ARE KNOWN TO DEVELOP. THE RISES WILL MOST LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AMOUNTS REMAINS LOW...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A ZANESVILLE TO LATROBE LINE. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ001. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ049-050- 057>059-068. FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ059-068-069. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ069. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ021-023- 029-031-073>075. FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ029-031-073>076. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ076. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ001>004. FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012- 021>023-041. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ012- 021>023-041.
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