Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 272105 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 505 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Warm temperatures are expected as humidity increases through the weekend. Low pressure moving toward the region will bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms late Thursday and into Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A late afternoon update was issued to adjust precip probabilities over the area south of Interstate 70 as scattered thunderstorms have developed near a stalled boundary in that vicinity. It is likely that convection will continue into early evening, until peak heating fades, or until the weak supporting shortwave shifts eastward. Thereafter, conditions will be dry overnight with temperatures nearly 5 degrees above the seasonal average. On Thursday, models agree that a shortwave will advance eastward along the stalled boundary, with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances as the afternoon progresses. Best upward omega is progged toward the southeast ridges where highest pops were forecast.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Model differences continue in regards as to where the highest QPF will reside as the shortwave moves east Thursday night and into Friday. The boundary will move north, causing dew points to rise as it pulls deep moisture into areas south and east of Pittsburgh according to adjusted RFC and QPF. Heaviest rainfall potential is expected to be suppressed south and east of the ridges for now. However, the rainfall potential must be monitored as rainfall and rainfall rates could create the need for a flash flood watch over the southeast. If a flash flood watch does occur, it will not occur until late Friday night. Thus, no watch will be issued at this time. The system will slowly exit the forecasting area on Friday, decreasing POPs northwest to southeast across the region. A weak upper level trough with multiple shortwaves will cross the region through Saturday and will keep shower and thunderstorm chances high and conditions humid.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A series of shortwaves moving through the weak trough over the eastern CONUS will support periodic rain chances and seasonal temperatures into Monday. A weak bubble of surface high pressure looks to bring warm temperatures with little chance for showers Tuesday and Wednesday. A modified Superblend was used for much of the extended period. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through much of tonight with high pressure over most of the area. Patchy MVFR fog is expected near dawn Thursday, mainly near a stalled surface boundary south of I 70 where more favorable low level moisture is progged. This should mix out after dawn, though MVFR CU ceilings are expected in this same area thereafter. Approaching low pressure should result in increasing shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday south of I 80, though much of the precip should be after the TAF period. .OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Broad upper troughing should maintain periodic restriction potential through Monday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.