Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 210419 AAC AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1219 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak upper level trough will return slight rain chances to the forecast today. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected with a Tuesday cold front.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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A weak shortwave trough advancing out of the Midwest should result in slight shower chances N of I 80 toward dawn, though weak forcing a lack of deep layer moisture should limit this potential. Otherwise, an increase in mid and high clouds is expected ahead of the approaching trough. Lows are expected to be a couple of degrees above average.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... That shortwave is the lead disturbance in a series of impulses which will escalate rain chances into Tuesday. As for eclipse viewing on Monday, local conditions are not looking as favorable as previous as that lead impulse is expected to at least spawn mid level cloudiness, and possibly some isolated convection with its morning to early afternoon passage. The good news is that at moment, weak shortwave ridging is timed to suppress precip during the peak time of the event. By Tuesday, strong low pressure is forecast to dig between the James Bay and Great Lakes and pull a cold front toward the Ohio Valley. Given model-world agreement, likely precip probabilities have been maintained with ramped-up severe expectations as per a strengthened pressure gradient and resultant wind profile. That potential remains slight at moment as warm mid level temperature will likely retard overall instability. Nevertheless, prudence dictates inclusion in the Hazardous Weather Outlook, especially in light of the projected boundary layer warmth and moisture. Prefrontal trough passage is timed to end the severe threat by Tuesday eve, with early Wednesday frontal passage heralding cooler temperature for the remainder of the week. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Broad surface high pressure under high-amplitude Eastern CONUS troughing is progged to support dry weather and sub average temperature into the weekend. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure will provide prevailing VFR conditions through the period. A brief period of pre-dawn MVFR fog is possible at southern ports. .Outlook... Widespread restriction potential returns with a late Tue/early Wed cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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