Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 021209 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 709 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON TUESDAY WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BASED OF LATEST OBSERVATIONS...AS WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO BELOW FREEZING. LATEST RADAR SHOWS ONGOING SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SHORTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AND SUBSIDENCE LIMITS LIFT AND PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING IS ICY ROADS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE WITH THE COMBINATION OF FALLING TEMPERATURES AND ROADS THAT WERE WET AND/OR SNOW/SLUSH COVERED FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS QUICKLY OVER THE AREA...AND TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE WITH PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. DAYTIME MAX TEMPS WILL BE ONLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT READINGS...AND WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH CENTERS OVER THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OVERNIGHT TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER TEENS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES AS TIMING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK SLIGHTLY. SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALONG WITH THE COLD SFC TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE AN IDEAL SETUP FOR FREEZING RAIN FOR A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE CHANGING ALL OVER TO RAIN. HELD OFF ON ADVISORIES FOR NOW TO LIMIT CONFUSION WITH CURRENT THE BLACK ICE SPS...BUT EXPECT HEADLINES LATER TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE PERSISTENT AFTER CHANGING OVER TO RAIN..AND THIS COMBINED WITH WARMER AIR AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT SNOW MELT UNTIL COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL STREAM AND RIVER RISES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED AND SOME ICE COVER IS LIKELY TO POP...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN BASINS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW THE COLD FRONT RACING TOWARD THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD BRING A QUICK END TO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND PROVIDE A QUIET BUT COLD END TO THE WEEK. TEMPS BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SATURDAY...BUT BY SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE WANES AS MODEL SOLUTIONS SEPARATE. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A GENERAL MVFR FORECAST WITH OCCASIONAL IFR WITH LOW CIGS AND FOG THROUGH DAWN. AFTER THIS TIME...STUBBORN STRATOCU DECK WILL KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE DISTRICT. .OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES IS LIKELY TO SPAWN WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. && .HYDROLOGY... AN INCREASE IN FLOW AND STAGE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ICE MOVEMENT STARTING TUESDAY...BEGINNING ON THE SOUTHERNMOST RIVER BASINS. THE CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO HAVE A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PRECIPITATION PHASE AND AMOUNTS AS WELL AS THE DEGREE OF SNOW MELT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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