Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 150816 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 316 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Light precipitation chances return with a Monday warm front, with more widespread rain expected by Tuesday with low pressure.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Stratus and stratocu, should continue to gradually clear from N-S this morning under building high pressure. Mid and high level clouds should increase later in the day in warm advection ahead of the next approaching shortwave. Highs are expected to be just above the seasonal averages.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A weak shortwave should return slight to low chances for precip tonight and Monday. Mainly light rain chances are expected, though precip could initially start as some freezing rain especially in the higher terrain of WV and MD. Low confidence in occurrence precludes an HWO mention at this time. Better chances for rain are expected Monday night and Tuesday with increasing shortwave support ahead of an upper trough quickly advancing from the Plains to the Great Lakes region. With sufficient model agreement on ascent and available moisture, increased POPs to categorical. Another trough rapidly advancing from the Upper Midwest should maintain shower chances Tuesday night and Wednesday with it`s approach and passage. Temperatures are expected to average 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal levels.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Eastern CONUS ridging is progged to develop through the weekend as a deep trough moves across the Plains and Midwest, resulting in mainly dry and warm weather for the local area through the period. Temperatures are expected to average 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal levels using tweaked Superblend guidance numbers.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... IFR/MVFR conditions in low ceilings and patchy fog will linger over ports south of Pittsburgh for a couple hours after midnight, but building high pressure will ensure VFR and light wind for Sunday. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions can be expected with a Monday warm front, and with a Tue/Wed cdfnt. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 07/15

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