Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 210408 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1208 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL PASSAGE OF A MIDWEEK COLD FRONT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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PTCHY CLDS WL CONT OVRNGT UNDER A WKNG SHRTWV. PTCHY FOG IS ALSO EXPD WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVR OH. ADDNL DIRUNAL CU IS EXPD TO DVLP ON MON...THOUGH ANY SHWR/TSTM CHCS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO OROGRAPHCIALL DRIVEN ACTIVITY E-SE OF PIT. EVE RAOB PLOTS SHOW WRM MD LVL AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE CNVCTN ELSW...AND UPR LVL RIDGING SHOULD GRDLY BLD IN DURG THE AFTN. TEMPS SHOULD BE NR THE SEASONAL AVG.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR TUESDAY WILL BE THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER EAST. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH A COLD FRONT BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. WITH THE MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS BY LATE IN THE DAY. WEDNESDAY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE A WARM AND HUMID DAY DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MINIMAL CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE EXTENDED AS MODELS SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY REGARDING A MIDWEEK COLD FRONT SET TO PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO RAISE POPS WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THIS LOOKS TO BE THE APPROXIMATE TIMING OF FROPA ATTM. ADDITIONALLY...ANALYSIS OF LATEST 10 GFS RUNS SHOWS MINIMAL CHANGE IN POSITION AND HEIGHTS...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AS WELL. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR FOR THE EVENING HOURS WITH SOME SC/AC TO DEAL WITH. OVERNIGHT...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOG FORMATION...AN MVFR MIST IN GENERAL BUT IFR TO LIFR POSSIBILITIES IN THE VALLEYS. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z...LEAVING ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON CU IN ITS WAKE. OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS AS IT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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