Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 230538 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1238 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Periodic rain chances will continue through Sunday. Conditions should be dry for the beginning of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Moisture beginning to surge northward towards the forecast area from the batch of showers that departed earlier to our southeast. In response a few light rain showers are beginning to populate the radar scope. As this deeper southerly flow kicks in, temperatures will begin to climb, save for the eastern slopes of the Laurel Highlands where a favorable cold air damming scenario will play out. The observation at Oakland, MD shows 32 degrees and there are certainly locations in the deeper hollows that will remain much cooler with the easterly flow. For this reason, will keep the Winter Weather Advisory continuing through the morning hours as freezing drizzle and eventually freezing rain will continue to be a threat. Fog/drizzle will continue along our eastern periphery through mid-morning, when the flow finally veers southerly. Elsewhere, light rain chances will increase through the early morning hours, but rain totals are expected to be light in the void of organized lift between waves. The next wave of appreciable rain will arrive with the warm front lifting back to our north with timing centered around midday. Hi-res models try to sneak in a few convective elements along the southern flank of rain, a claim further bolstered by NAM/RAP soundings showing skinny SB CAPE in the MGW area. While strong thunderstorms are not expected, some thunderstorms are not out of the question, which could produce a little more efficient rainfall in those areas. All told, looking at another half to full inch of rain for many locations today. Models differ slightly on the latitudinal focus for this rain, but most of it should fall through the central portion of the local forecast area. Without question, the Areal Flood Watch will continue seemingly in perpetuity.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The second 24 hour period of the forecast should be very similar to the first 24 hour period of the forecast, with a break in precipitation Friday night and reintensification on Saturday. However, Saturday night will remain wet as the region will be in a transition area from warm front impacts to cold front impacts. The cold front will push through on Sunday, bringing some definitive clearing to the region. Highs will reach the 50s and 60s again before the cold front arrives. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The work week should start out dry before a large system moves from the Plains towards the East Coast Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures will be slightly above normal. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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With moisture trapped beneath a stout inversion, stratus will linger through the night across the region, with ceiling heights varying from MVFR to LIFR. Localized fog and drizzle will also be seen, mainly along east-facing slopes. Some slight improvement to MVFR is possible during the daylight hours, although widespread rain will return by midday with the return of a warm front. Precipitation will taper off once again during the evening, but mostly IFR ceiling restrictions will continue through the rest of the TAF period. OUTLOOK... Restrictions are expected to continue with a Saturday warm front, and a Sunday cold front.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... Numerous forecast points are already at action stages across the region. Pittsburgh is already over 21 feet. 3 successive disturbances over the next 72 hours will drop rainfall amounts ranging from 1.50 to 4.50 inches across the region. River Flood watches will likely be expanded across the region. With QPF, we expect river flooding to be widespread by 00Z/25 February. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for MDZ001. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MDZ001. OH...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for OHZ039>041-048>050- 057>059-068-069. PA...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for PAZ007>009-013>016- 020>023-029-031-073>076. WV...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for WVZ001>004-012-021- 509>514.
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&& $$

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