Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 280525 AAA AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 125 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A break in the activity today under high pressure. Unsettled but warm weather expected for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Some minor adjustments to PoPs early in the forecast, changing timing to the end of showers in line with latest radar trends and hires guidance. Clouds have been decreased with much drier air sweeping in. Dry weather returns today under high pressure. Any cooler air behind the front will quickly eject to the north as strong warm air advection takes over. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low confidence forecast through much of the weekend due to differences in model solutions. Models are having a difficult time determining the position and timing of a warm front on Saturday and also the extent and strength of Eastern CONUS ridge. The upper levels will show a slow increase in 500mb heights beginning tonight and continuing through most of Saturday night. This is in response to a large and vigorous upper level system which will dig into the Southern Plains over the weekend. Zonal flow this evening will be replace by the building eastern ridge overnight. As the zonal flow is pushed northward a series of shortwaves will rush north of the building ridge, bringing another chance for showers and storms tonight and Saturday. Models seem to be really suffering from convective feedback tonight, and late on Saturday, particularly with the NAM solution. One thing the models do somewhat agree on, most of the precipitation tonight and Saturday will be over the northern half of the region, north of the surface warm front. Discrepancies again arise Saturday night and Sunday. At this point it seems like the NAM has a better handle on the overall pattern as rather strong ridge will be in place over the area and we will be well into the warm sector. This would provide a more stable atmosphere and limit the prospects for widespread showers and storms Saturday night and through much of Sunday. The other question is convective threats with the shortwave tonight and then on Saturday afternoon. Interestingly enough, the best lift will ride north of the unstable air, particularly tonight which will limit storm coverage and intensity. Could see more popup type of situation on Saturday under the building ridge. Again, will lean closer to NAM solution Saturday night and Sunday as it is showing a better solution to the overall pattern. The key for the weekend will be the timing and movement of the rather well defined warm front. How far north will it push on Saturday and Sunday and how long will it take for it to move north of the region. Warm temperatures are expected through the entire weekend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Eastern ridge finally begins to break down on Monday, as deep upper level system spins northward from the plains/Midwest on Sunday, toward the Great Lakes by Monday night. The 500 low will eventually move across Southern Canada Tuesday and Wednesday. The surface reflection will move directly under the 500 low and swing the occluded front through the Upper Ohio Valley late Monday/Monday night. This will increase the risk for showers and storms. A cooler and unsettled pattern will continue through Midweek. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions largely expected outside of any brief MVFR restrictions associated with scattered thunderstorms along a cold front crossing this evening. Stronger thunderstorms could generate strong wind gusts. Expect VFR conditions to be restored in the wake of the front along with winds shifting from southerly to westerly rather abruptly. Tonight, west-northwest flow cloud bring in some MVFR stratocu, but this looks most favorable for the far northern ports of DUJ/FKL. .Outlook... Occasional restrictions are possible this weekend along a stalled frontal boundary. Better restriction chances arrive with a strong cold front Sunday night into Monday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.