Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 301947 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 247 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WINTRY WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SCT-NMRS SNW SHWRS WL CONT ACRS THE AREA INTO EARLY EVE...THOUGH SHOULD RAPIDLY DMNSH AFT SUNSET AS HIGH PRES BLDS FURTHER INTO THE RGN AND SBSDNC INCRS. COLD TEMPS ARE EXPD TNGT ALSO...WITH WND CHILLS APCHG -10 TO -15 FOR AREAS NE-SE OF PIT WHERE WND CHILL ADVYS WERE MAINTAINED. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRES SHOULD CONT DRY WEA INTO SAT EVE. A DIGGING UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO ADVN OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TRACK ACRS THE GT LKS AND OH VLY RGN SUN INTO MON. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACRS THE TN AND OH VLY RGNS ALSO. THIS WL SPREAD SNW INTO THE RGN LT SAT NGT THRU MON MRNG WITH DEEP AVAILABLE MSTR AND OMEGA. WITH A CLOSED 850MB LOW...A MORE PROLONGED PCPN EVENT IS EXPD AS OPPOSED TO THE OPEN SYSTEM EARLIER IN THE WK. WITH ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNW OR A SNW/ICE MIX...ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LEFT AREAS GENLY S OF I 70 OUT OF THE WATCH...EXCEPT FOR THE WV/MD RIDGES...AS ENOUGH WRM AIR IS EXPD TO WRAP IN AHD OF THE LOW TO ALLOW FOR A RAIN/SNW MIX OR EVEN A PD OF ALL RAIN. AREAS BETWEEN I 70- AND I 80 COULD SEE ENOUGH WRM AIR ALOFT FOR FRZG RAIN TO MIX IN AT TIMES AS WELL. GENLY FOLLOWED A SREF/GFS/ECMWF MDL BLEND TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS...AND USED CRITICAL THICKNESSES/MDL SOUNDING PROFILES FOR PCPN TYPE. BEST POTENTIAL FOR GREATER THAN 6 INCHES OF SNW EXISTS N OF PIT BASED ON LATEST MDL GUIDANCE...THOUGH THIS WL BE REFINED OVR THE NXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SNW SHOULD CONT MON UNTIL THE UPR TROF AXIS SHIFTS E IN THE AFTN. NUDGED TEMPS TO THE LATEST COLDER THAN SEASONAL AVG SREF GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A COLD...WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MVFR CIGS WITH IFR VSBY IN SNOW SHWRS WL CONT THIS AFTN. GENL IMPROVEMENT CAN BE ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER AS DRY ADVCTN AND SBSDNC INCRS. SFC WIND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GUST FROM THE W AND NW AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY. FURTHER IMPROVEMENTS CAN BE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES BLDS THROUGH SATURDAY MRNG. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SUNDAY LOW PRES AND WITH A MONDAY CDFNT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MDZ001. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ001. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001. OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059. PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-073>076. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ008-009-015-016-023-074-076. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ074- 076. WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR WVZ001>003-023-041. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WVZ023-041. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ023- 041. && $$ 07/15

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