Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 181810 AAA AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 110 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions are largely expected until the next frontal system crosses the region Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday. Well above normal temperatures are expected through the end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Strong diurnal mixing continues to support rapidly warming temperatures this afternoon in advance of an approaching upper level shortwave. Further adjustments were made based on the most recent observations and trends, with low to mid 60 temperatures expected everywhere, even in the northernmost zones. We`ve already surpassed the record highs for several of our sites before noon...see the climate section for more details. Cloud cover is slow to increase in advance of the aforementioned system, as is precip, with dewpoints still in the 30`s. While a slight northern trend is apparent in some guidance, including hi res models, the amount of precipitation making it to the ground may be minimal with the dry air in place. Thus, while slight chance PoPs were pushed just a bit further north along the northern WV/southern PA border, any precip should be very light. Shortwave will continue to pass just south of the region overnight. Cloud cover should limit the extent of the cooling but a wnw wind shift even in neutral advection may support some cooling of the ridge tops. Overall though temperatures are expected to stay nearly 20 degrees above average. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Strong ridging builds in the wake of the departing low through this period, with 500mb heights approaching 576dam by Monday night/Tuesday. With nearly clear skies and warm advection, expect the continuation of very warm temperatures through Tuesday, before a cold front approaches Tuesday afternoon/night. Deterministic guidance continues to struggle with the timing of the front for Tuesday. Have opted to hold the likely PoPs but adjusted the timing based on a model blend for now, as it appears the GFS may be just a tad past with the boundary passage. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Long term continues to highlight an above-average temperature trend, as has been suggested by long-range guidance. Despite the passage of the front Tuesday night, mid-level ridging will quickly build back over the eastern CONUS as the trough amplifies over the southwestern US and then ejects into the central Plains by the end of period. Model guidance appears to be handling the overall trends in the upper level pattern well, with only minor differences in timing and evolution of the system for the end of the week. Thus, will stay close to a blend of solutions with tweaks made to temperatures as the Superblend tends to dampen anomalous values in the extended. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions prevailing with southwest winds gusting to 20 Kts diminishing this evening. Clouds will increase this evening with only a few sprinkles expected at KMGW as a weak mid level circulation shears out across the Mid-Atlantic states. Weak cool advection looks to produce a period of MVFR stratus at most ports late night into early Sunday. .OUTLOOK... The next chance for widespread restrictions will be with a Tuesday cold front. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures February 18: Pittsburgh, PA 66 (2011) Zanesville, OH 64 (2011/1994) Morgantown, WV 73 (1981) DuBois, PA 57 (1981) - Surpassed before noon Wheeling, WV 60 (2008) - Surpassed after noon New Philadelphia,OH 62 (1961) - Surpassed after noon && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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