Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271502 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1102 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A very warm day will be interrupted by showers and storms with a weak front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... the late morning update featured adjustments to POPs based on the latest radar and high res model trends. A weak cold/occluding front will is triggering showers and storms over areas west and south of Zanesville. These will progress eastward and are expected to intensify as the boundary layer destabilizes this afternoon, especially over areas east of a Dubois to Parkersburgh line where peak heating will drive temperature toward the mid 80s. Despite impressive deep layer shear, the area has been limited to a "marginal" severe risk. This seems appropriate given instability limitations imposed by sub 60 dewpoints and a plume of warmer mid level air advecting along the advancing front. Should storms develop and organize, the primary severe threat still looks to be from damaging wind via short bowing segments. Passage of the front will herald diminished convection as the evening progresses. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Dry weather returns Friday with high pressure. Any cooler air behind today`s front will be quickly ejected to the north as strong warm air advection takes over. Eastern ridge will try to build late Friday, but will be shunted by a series of upper level waves which will ride over the top of the rising heights. These wave will bring showers and storms back to the area late Friday night and Saturday. Seeing discrepancies in models solutions on Saturday with the position and timing of the shortwaves. Have leaned toward a more northern track, which complies with slowly rising 500mb heights on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An active pattern is figured for the remainder of the weekend into early next week. A few shortwaves will cross in continued moist southwest flow along the front of a broad trough, leading to rain chances again on Sunday. Timing remains tricky, but Saturday night currently looks to be the period with the lowest coverage in the warm sector. Temperatures remain above normal. The trough lifts out as a closed upper low into the Great Lakes by Monday, pushing a fairly strong boundary across us. Given system strength, the amount of moisture, and a possibly negative tilt to the upper trough, strong storms appear possible. Behind this system, quieter weather and seasonable temperatures are expected into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions expected much of the day. Winds will pick up out of the south and gust to 20 to 25 knots once mixing gets going. Timing for the frontal passage will be between roughly 18Z and 02Z, with showers and thunderstorms along and ahead. Expecting a brief period of MVFR showers with VCTS, with exact timing still a bit uncertain, temporary IFR possible in any downpours. Stronger wind gusts are also possible in the strongest storms. Behind the front, winds will diminish and MVFR ceilings will linger. .Outlook... Occasional restrictions are possible this weekend along a stalled frontal boundary. Better restriction chances arrive with a strong cold front Sunday night into Monday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 15

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