Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 142148 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 548 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Although local showers are possible Tuesday and Wednesday, widespread rain will move into the region Thursday and Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Made minor updates to the PoP fields, pulling chances just a bit further west for a few hours based on recent trends. In any event, remaining activity look very light and scattered overall. Hi-res models like the HRRR and WRF-ARW are hinting at a secondary wave late tonight that could bring more activity to areas southeast of Pittsburgh, which could necessitate an increase in PoPs. Will reassess with the next couple HRRR runs. Temperatures on track for now. Previous discussion for Tuesday... While a slight chance of thunderstorms will remain across southeastern counties on Tuesday, focus will also shift towards the Interstate 80 corridor as weak low pressure will drop from Michigan into Ohio. Have maintained a slight chance of thunderstorms across northern zones as well. Temperatures will rise a few degrees above normal in most locations.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The main rainmaker this week will be low pressure moving across the Great Lakes. 12Z models have slowed down the storm slightly from previous model runs. Not only did this result in reducing pops somewhat Wednesday into Wednesday night, but it also kept likely pops in all locations Thursday night with rain ahead of the cold front. Temperatures will remain a couple of degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Longwave troughing will be the dominant feature through the period, resulting in continued unsettled conditions. Thunderstorms will accompany a cold front as it crosses Friday. After a brief break...precipitation chances will return as a midlevel shortwave crosses late Saturday/Sunday. Temperatures will be near to slightly below average. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will deteriorate to IFR overnight with increasing moisture and a more favorable hydrolapse. .OUTLOOK... Localized early mrng fog psbl thru the week. Widespread restriction potential returns with a Thu/Fri cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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