Area Forecast Discussion
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584 FXUS61 KPBZ 280216 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1016 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A series of crossing disturbances will keep rain in the forecast into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... A late eve update was issued to adjust pops for isolated showers which continue to fire near the semi-stationary boundary near the I 70 corridor. On Thursday, models agree that another shortwave will move along that boundary and further increase shower and thunderstorm chances as the afternoon progresses. Best upward omega is progged toward the southeast ridges, so highest pops were forecast in that area. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Model differences continue in regards as to where the highest QPF will reside as the shortwave moves east Thursday night and into Friday. The boundary will move north, causing dew points to rise as it pulls deep moisture into areas south and east of Pittsburgh according to adjusted RFC and QPF. Heaviest rainfall potential is expected to be suppressed south and east of the ridges for now. However, the rainfall potential must be monitored as rainfall and rainfall rates could create the need for a flash flood watch over the southeast. If a flash flood watch does occur, it will not occur until late Friday night. Thus, no watch will be issued at this time. The system will slowly exit the forecasting area on Friday, decreasing POPs northwest to southeast across the region. A weak upper level trough with multiple shortwaves will cross the region through Saturday and will keep shower and thunderstorm chances high and conditions humid. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A series of shortwaves moving through the weak trough over the eastern CONUS will support periodic rain chances and seasonal temperatures into Monday. A weak bubble of surface high pressure looks to bring warm temperatures with little chance for showers Tuesday and Wednesday. A modified Superblend was used for much of the extended period. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions are expected at most sites through the TAF period. Early this morning restrictions were contained to MGW, and expect this will be the case again tomorrow morning with restrictions in fog. The chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase Thursday, with MGW the only site with enough confidence to include prevailing rain. All other terminals will have at least a chance of showers, with enough confidence in thunder to include VCTS from Pittsburgh and to the east. .OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Broad upper troughing should maintain periodic restriction potential through Monday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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