Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 221021 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 521 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO FADE THIS MORNING. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND UNTIL LOW PRESSURE RETURNS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADING THE ILN CWA. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE MET BY DRY AIR...WHICH SHOULD HELP ERODE ITS OVERALL POTENCY AS IT MOVE EAST. THAT SAID...SOME VERY COLD SFC TEMPS REMAIN AS A CLEAR AND CALM OVERNIGHT HAS DIPPED MANY LOCATIONS INTO THE MID-TEENS. JUST WEST OF THE CWA...TEMPS DO GO UP IN LARGE PART TO THE ADDITION OF CLOUDS AND THE BETTER SRLY FLOW BEGINNING TO KICK IN. A SAMPLING OF MESONET SITES AT THIS HOUR YIELDS TEMPS EVEN LOWER THAN ASOS OBSERVATIONS WITH SEVERAL READINGS NEAR 10F. TEMPS HAVE JUMPED SOME 3-6F HOURLY ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO OVER THE LAST TWO HOURS...BUT MANY LOCATIONS ARE STILL WELL BELOW FREEZING. WITH AS COLD AS WE HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST WEEK OR SO...EVEN WHEN LOCATIONS REACH THAT 32F THRESHOLD IT WONT AUTOMATICALLY MEAN THAT RAIN WILL FAIL TO FREEZE ON COLDER ELEVATED SURFACES...AUTOMOBILES...OR TREES. OVERALL QPF REMAINS LOW AND IMPACTS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE WIDESPREAD...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR EVEN A TRACE OF ICE ACCUMULATION...HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA IN THE ZRY THROUGH MIDDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE ADVISORY ALONG THE NORTH FOR THOSE COUNTIES AS PLANNED AS WELL. RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY AND RESULT IN GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. BOUNDARY STAYS JUST TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT AND MAY GENERATE ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN...BUT WITH WAA DRIVING SFC TEMPS UP THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WE SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN. TAX && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AN UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL CONUS THRU THE WKEND. SVRL WK SHRTWVS WL ROTATE ARND THE BASE OF THE TROF AND ADVN ACRS THE OH VLY AND GT LKS RGN IN SW FLOW. THE FIRST OF THESE IS PROGGED FOR A SAT PASSAGE. THE BEST MSTR AND UPR SPPRT IS PROGGED TO STAY ALG I 80 AND NWD...SO MAINTAINED SHWR CHCS IN THIS RGN. DID MENTION JUST A SLGT CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THIS RGN AS CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE LIQUID PCPN...AND SFC TEMPS MAY STILL BE COLD ENOUGH IF PCPN WOULD OCCUR IN THE MRNG. AFTER A COUPLE MORE WK WAVES SAT NGT AND SUN...A STRONGER SHRTWV WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPR SPPRT IS PROGGED FOR A SUN NGT PASSAGE. MAINTAINED CAT SHWR POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE MAIN TROF ADVNS TWD THE GT LKS MON...A CDFNT IS EXPD TO CROSS THE RGN. WITH LTD MSTR KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW. WITH WRM ADVCTN THRU MUCH OF THE PD...TEMPS SHOULD GRDLY WRM TO SVRL DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS BY LT IN THE WKEND. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... WIDESPREAD SHOWERS END MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN THROUGH THE LONG RANGE. CLOSE TO WPC PROGS. FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR THIS MORNING WITH SKC AND LIGHT WINDS AREAWIDE. WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY MORNING WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL INITIALLY REMAIN VFR. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS FOR ZZV/BVI/FKL/DUJ...AS A SW LLJ CRANKS UP MID-MORNING. AS NOTED IN NEAR TERM SECTION ABOVE...FZRA IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE INCREASED THE USE OF TEMPO GROUPS TO HANDLE FZRA...FOR NRN TERMINALS...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE STILL A BIT LOW FOR INCLUSION FURTHER SOUTH BUT BVI/PIT/AGC WILL NEED WATCHING. CIGS WILL LOWER A BIT TOWARDS THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW FOR REMAINING FZRA TO TURN TO PLAIN RAIN TOWARDS MIDAFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST CAN BE ANTICIPATED. TAX OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ007>009-015-016. WV...NONE. && $$

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