Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 241727 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 127 PM EDT Wed Aug 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A couple of crossing disturbances will return rain chances to the Upper Ohio Valley Region for late Wednesday and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Convective debris from the west continues filter into the area. Likewise, surface flow has started to turn around from a now southerly direction. This will allow for an increase in humidity today as well as a decent uptick in temperatures. Under a decent mixing profile at still strong, yet filtered, sun through the convective debris cirrus, highs should just back above normal this afternoon. Fries Previous... An eastward shifting Plains-to-Great Lakes shortwave will ensure increase in rain chance by tonight. That system is progged to be the first in a series which will traverse the northern flank of the persistent Southeast CONUS ridge, and maintain periodic precip chances through Thursday. Improved mid level flow and resulting deep layer shear are forecast to support possible severe storms late on Thursday, especially over northern zones where the southward sagging frontal boundary may spawn more numerous convection, but that parameter is likely to be offset by marginal instability limited by very warm mid level temperature. With little change in pattern as the disturbances will lack ridge erosion power, expect above average temperatures with the more humid near term weather, forecast of which was constructed using consensus short and superblend guidance. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Precipitation chances are projected to wane on Friday as surface high pressure builds in the wake of a weak front. Given the strength of the upper ridge, southward frontal penetration is questionable, but will generally persist with a dry forecast through Saturday as per the latest deterministic trends. Warm weather will continue as zonal flow across the northern ridge periphery shunts warm air across the region. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Little change in pattern is indicated into early next week with the southern U.S. upper high maintaining grip. Another shortwave is progged across the Upper Ohio during the Sunday night/Monday time frame; hence, POPs were maintained for that eventuality as per the latest Superblend guidance. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High clouds will continue to increase through the evening, even as diurnal cumulus fades. Showers will encroach from the west overnight, however coverage is questionable and restrictions from them also questionable due to copious coverage of high clouds. The forecast was built without visibility/ceiling restrictions with the best chance of showers and even a thunderstorm being during the daytime hours Thursday. Fries .OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Periodic restriction chances should persist through Friday with the approach and passage of a cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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