Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 210527 AAC AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 127 AM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front will exit the area this morning and provide a shower or two as it passes. A second, stronger cold front, will sweep through tonight, bringing much colder temperatures on Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Made some minor adjustments to PoPs overnight, as shower coverage is sparse along the crossing front, due to a lack of upper level support. Most of the activity is across the north, but this is very light and rather isolated. Temperatures have been updated with a blend of hires data. Scattered showers are possible across the far southeast this morning as the cold front crosses those locations. But with the lack of any real large scale ascension, the showers will be light. Front will exit to the south by the afternoon keeping the rest of the day dry and allowing for a quick decrease in cloud cover. Temperatures today will be near or just above seasonal levels.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A second, and stronger front, will cross the area tonight. A lack of moisture and upper level support will allow for its passage to be mainly dry. However, much colder air will quickly filter in behind the surface boundary. This will provide an increase in low clouds for a large portion of the area overnight and push surface temperatures to 5 to 10 degrees below normal by Wednesday morning. Do not expect much, if any, snow shower activity in the cold air advection on late tonight/Wednesday morning. Maybe a scattered snow shower in the I-80 corridor early Wednesday morning, or a snow shower in the higher elevations once the heart of the cold air reaches the ridges. But winds aloft are not lined up for much lake/upslope influence and inversions quickly decrease as a very dry air mass aloft quickly spreads across the region. Wednesday will be rather chilly, with reading close to 20 degrees below normal, but this impact will be somewhat offset by a warm late March sun. Any morning stratocu will quickly dissipate. Thursday looks to be very nice with lots of sunshine and moderating temperatures. Upper level heights will quickly rise Thursday with a strong ridge moving across the Mid-West, and the cold air aloft ejecting toward the northeast. Highs Thursday will climb closer to seasonal levels.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Moisture is progged to increase in response of an upper low stationed over the southern plains. This feature will slowly shift towards the Great Lakes and increasing rain chances with a warm front on Friday followed by the approaching cold front over the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will deteriorate this evening as showers encroach in advance of a weak cold front. Expect MVFR and IFR cigs in the pre dawn hours. Improvement can be expected with mid-Tuesday subsidence and dry advection. Outlook... Restrictions are likely with a reinforcing front Tuesday night. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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