Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271038 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 638 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...WILL INCREASE TODAY. COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... EXPECT A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY FOR MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO RE-FIRE ONCE THE NEXT MIDWEST SHORTWAVE REACHES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL DATA IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH THE SEVERE THREAT AS PREVIOUS RUNS. ATMOSPHERE NOT QUITE AS BUOYANT AND SHEAR VALUES HAVE ALSO DECREASED. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SUNLIGHT...OR THE LACK THERE OFF. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOT OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS LINGERING OVER THE REGION TODAY. WITH WHAT MODELS ARE DETAILING...IF SEVERE WEATHER ERUPTS IT LIKELY WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...AND IT MAY BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF MY FORECAST AREA. THIS IS A COMPLEX AND CONSTANTLY CHANGING SITUATION...DEPENDENT ON MANY FACTORS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... SURFACE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING IN BEHIND IT. STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED. SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... QUITE A CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY. CONVECTION IS REDEVELOPING WELL TO THE WEST IN INDIANA/KENTUCKY AND CONTINUES TO SHOW ESE MOVEMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOST LIKELY MISS MOST OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER...LINGERING OUTFLOW AND THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE LOW PLUS AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR REDEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. AFTER SOME LINGERING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO ACHIEVE VFR FOR A TIME LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. TRIED TO INSERT TIMING FOR CONVECTION VIA TEMPO GROUPS...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED SOMETIME BETWEEN 19Z AND 01Z. THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. CONVECTION SHOULD QUIET DOWN/MOVE OUT BY MIDNIGHT WITH LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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