Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 300836 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 421 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LATEST MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A FAIRLY WELL CONGEALED MASS OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN OHIO AHEAD OF A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROF. CLOUDTOP TEMPERATURE TRENDS VIA IR SATELLITE SHOW WARMING...WHICH COINCIDES WELL WITH THE WEAKENING OF INDIVIDUAL CELL STRENGTH. STILL SOME UPPER SUPPORT STILL EXISTS IN THE FORM OF UPPER- LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 300MB JET STREAK...SO SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE MAINLY WEST AND NORTH OF PITTSBURGH THROUGH DAYBREAK. AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY COMES A BIT OF A TRANSITION AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF ANY ORGANIZED ASCENT...WEAK MESOSCALE IMPULSES ALONG THE LINGERING BOUNDARY COULD COMBINE WITH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE/SCATTERED WORDING THROUGH THE EVENING. ALMOST ALL MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB EVACUATES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WEAK UPPER TROF PULLS AWAY. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTH...PULLED UP BY SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS HEADING INTO THE SUNDAY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TAX && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A VORTICITY LOBE WILL LIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TOWARDS THE MIDATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WILL BE SKIMMED BY THIS MIDLEVEL SUPPORT. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE BARELY SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM PIT ON SOUTH. PROXIMITY TO VORT LOBE PLUS TERRAIN MAY ALLOW FOR A BIT BETTER COVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGES. DEPARTURE OF DISTURBANCE PLUS LOSS OF HEATING WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY 00Z TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...H500 RIDGING WILL TAKE CONTROL OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY AND HOLD ON FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. MIDLEVEL CAPPING APPEARS MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY...AND FOR NOW HAVE ONLY KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE RIDGES...WHERE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE EFFECT MAY HELP TO PRODUCE A SHRA OR TSRA ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...EMBEDDED IN THE GENERAL RIDGING PATTERN...MAY ALLOW CAPPING TO BE OVERCOME SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION. EACH NIGHTTIME PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL OF COURSE BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS PATTERN. GENERALLY BLENDED MOSGUIDE WITH PREVIOUS VALUES FOR THE FORECAST. WOULD EXPECT SOME READINGS AT OR JUST OVER THE 90 DEGREE LEVEL BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CL && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EASTERN RIDGE HOLDING FIRM. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY...AN AREAWIDE SLIGHT CHANCE STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE. THE SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME THOUGH...SUCH THAT THE RIDGES WOULD BE FAVORED MAINLY FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE JUST TO THE EAST...AN IMPROVED MOISTURE FEED MAY SUPPORT ACTIVITY AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE ORGANIZATION IS FORESEEN THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH OVERALL PRECIPITATION TOTALS REMAINING FAIRLY LOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WILL BE FEATURED EACH DAY. CL && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER-LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS REGION...RESULTING IN SHOWERS BLOSSOMING OVER OHIO. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS CAN BE SEEN FOR PIT/FKL/BVI/HLG THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...NO RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WE FLIRT AGAIN WITH EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE WEST. CONTINUED GENERAL VFR CIGS LATER TODAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AT BEST WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE. TAX OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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