Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 030838 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 338 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Mainly cloudy with seasonably cold temperatures through Sunday. The next widespread chance for rain will be on Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Winds have been slow to shift to the northwest this morning, with little if any snow showers developing off Lake Erie into northwest PA. Have lowered POPs and kept only a light accumulation today as models still show flow will try to shift for a time late this morning. Otherwise seasonably cold through tonight as weak high pressure slides east across the Ohio Valley.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Split mid level flow continues to result in a difficult precipitation forecast for Sunday afternoon and night. Have continued with chance pops everywhere, with a rain snow mix possible most areas. Again only light accumulation possible generally north of State route 422 in PA. Precipitation will shift east by Monday as shortwave exits east. Quiet weather will be short lived however as low pressure will be quickly moving northeast toward the region with mainly rain arriving Monday night and continuing into Tuesday. Temperatures will remain near normal.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Timing of a strong cold front continues to be uncertain in the models, with the GFS still faster than the ECMWF. Have again used the model blend with a nod toward WPC extended progs. This will push the cold front across the region by Thursday, with much colder air and scattered snow showers to end the work week.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MVFR cigs expected at all ports except ZZV through most of the period. Cig will begin to slowly lift from southwest to northeast during the afternoon, but it will take much of the day to clear the MVFR cigs south of FKL and DUJ. FKL and DUJ will remain MVFR for entire forecast period. Expect to see occasional gusts of 15 to 20kts, particularly as the afternoon approaches, and at FKL and DUJ. For current forecast, left out mention of precipitation as anything will be very light. .OUTLOOK... Ceiling restrictions are possible across northern ports through Saturday night in cold W-NW flow. Restrictions are possible late Sunday/Monday, and again Tuesday with low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None.
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&& $$

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