Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 242219 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 619 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Sunshine and lower humidity are the main headlines this weekend. Scattered showers are possible Sunday afternoon with a passing upper level system. Widespread 60s are forecast highs Monday and Tuesday, not the best pool day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As surface temperatures have likely seen their afternoon apex and have begun to come down, cumulus buildups are already beginning to fade across the area, particularly across the northern zones where the lake breeze has brought more stable maritime-influenced air into the picture. This has allowed for the few showers generated along the 500 mb cold front to likewise fade as the front has begun to exit to the east. Enhanced lapse rates in its wake are now weakening with decreased heating, and overnight stabilization should allow for a full clear out of the skies within the next several hours. Thus, a quiet night is on tap for the area. Fries Isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm are possible Sunday afternoon during peak heating with the passing pocket of cooler mid level temps. Any shower or storm will be brief Sunday. Temps and humidity levels will be a welcome relief with highs slightly below normal and dewpoint in the 40s to lower 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Monday will follow a similar pattern as Sunday, with a shortwave trough digging into the Great Lakes. Models continue to show this trough sliding further south than the previous shortwave. Again, bolstered by steepening lapse rates, showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread southward through the afternoon and evening. Rain chances will continue into Monday night as the main upper-level trough axis passes overhead. Temperatures will continue to cool through the early part of the week, dropping around 3-5F off the daily highs and lows from today`s expected numbers. By Monday, temperatures will be about 10 degrees below average. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The middle of the week will feature cool temperatures, left over from persistent northwest flow from the broad upper trough. Despite building high pressure at the surface, rain chances will exist Tuesday before the axis of the main trough finally shifts east of the area. High pressure will take firm hold of the area Wednesday into Thursday, restoring dry conditions areawide and allowing temperatures to begin moderation. By the latter part of the week, the center of the high shifts to just off the Mid- Atlantic coast. This will will establish a return to a warm and humid airmass that will fuel showers and thunderstorms by the early weekend. Currently, the best chance of precipitation exists on Saturday, as low pressure returns to the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High confidence forecast. VFR conditions will continue through the period. Diurnal cumulus will return on Sunday with occasional wind gusts yet again. .OUTLOOK... Chance for restrictions will come with afternoon convection on Sunday and Monday as an upper trough settles over the region.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.