Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 220923 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 523 AM EDT Mon May 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Drier conditions will return for Monday. They will be short- lived, however, as rain reenters Tuesday with the approach of Mid-Atlantic low pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Rapidly drying dewpoints are evident across much of Ohio as a cold front slices through the area early this morning. Meager convective activity has lingered along and ahead of the front through the night, though no lightning has been evident in several hours. Forcing along the front combined with decent shear has been sufficient to allow for a fairly coherent shower line to perpetuate even with little/no instability. Hi-res model projections support essentially pure extrapolation of the front through the area by roughly late morning. Dewpoint falls with the front coupled with a drastic reduction in layer RH values should support a good bit of clearing with the frontal passage, as well. A lack of cloud cover this afternoon combined with a drier boundary layer should yield ample insolation generating sensible heating. Thus, even with modest cold advection underway, temperatures should still manage decent upward mobility. To further this, the cold pool off the ground will generally peel off to the east rather than dig into the area, which means the only potentially mitigating factor for decent temperature recoveries will generally be a non-factor. Thus, highs straddling 70 degrees seem reasonable for many areas. Fries
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... As this morning`s system continues eastward tonight, dry air looks to remain in control. A digging upper low will linger back toward the Mississippi Valley through mid-week. This will allow for a southern stream wave to trek up the east coast. However, the bulk of the moisture with this system will remain suppressed to our SE. The lone exception to this may be the ridges. PoPs were maintained here for showers but removed overall elsewhere as upper ridging looks to maintain sway over the area through at least Wednesday night. Temperatures during the period gradually warm through mid-week then cool thereafter once upper troughing comes into play by Thursday. Fries && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The long wave trough will linger overhead into Thursday night before gradually pushing off toward New England through the weekend. Unstable lapse rates with cold mid-level temperatures will allow for decent rain chances to continue through late in the work week. Beyond then, northwesterly flow behind the upper level system combined with weaker waves in northwesterly flow will keeps this unsettled and cooler into next weekend. Fries && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Scattered showers with isolated thunder has been slow to move across the area early this morning. The scattered nature of these showers will result in nothing more than a temporary visibility restriction, if that. Otherwise, guidance has been bullish on dropping ceilings in the pre-dawn hours as a cold front traverses the area. Outside of the far northern port of FKL, these drops have not been realized. Still think it`s possible to see a window of low MVFR or perhaps temporary IFR with the frontal passage, but am chipping away the onset time by a few hours with the 06z TAF issuance. Any restrictions that do accompany the cold front will improve quickly near or just after daybreak Monday as much drier air moves in. Southerly winds currently across the area will shift quickly with the passage of the front. Surface flow will then generally stay west-northwesterly through the remainder of the TAF period. .Outlook... The next chance for widespread restrictions and precipitation is expected Wednesday night into Thursday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.