Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 200547 AAC AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1247 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN GOOD SHAPE. STRATOCU REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER WEAK RIDGE. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO LATEST GUIDANCE. WEAK RIDGE BREAKS DOWN LATER TODAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. WEAK CAA IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT AGAIN CLOUD COVER WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEST AND FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE REST OF THE REGION STILL WANT TO MAINTAIN A SATURATED LAYER AROUND 2500FT FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WHICH DOES NOT PRESENT MUCH HOPE FOR SUNSHINE. CLOUDS WILL BE TRICKY ON SUNDAY...TRYING TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE STRAOCU DECK WILL BE ERODED. SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY WITH A LARGE SYSTEM TO THE WEST AND ANOTHER SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE AREA WILL LIE IN BETWEEN LIMITING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WAA WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER AGAIN MONDAY. A WEAK AND UNORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN RIDGES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS THE WARMER AIR ALOFT MAY OCCUR BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS RESPOND. TIMING OF THE PRECIP WILL BE CRITICAL TO PROVIDING TIME FOR SURFACE TEMPS IN THE SOUTHERN RIDGES TO RISE. FOR NOW WILL MENTION A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN RIDGES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... STILL SEEING SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR MIDWEEK SYSTEM. THINK MUCH OF TUESDAY COULD BE DRY OR JUST LIGHT SHOWERS AS AREA WILL BE WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF OCCLUDED FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT CHANGING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS. COULD SEE A BRIEF UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS MAIN TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY...BUT WIND DIRECTION NOT OPTIMAL FOR LAKE INFLUENCED SNOW SHOWERS. WARMER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PERVASIVE STRATUS COVERS ALL SITES THIS EVENING...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS DROPPED OFF FROM EARLIER TODAY. GIVEN STRONG INVERSIONS...STRATUS SEEMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY AT LEAST...HOWEVER GIVEN A BIT WIDER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES SEEM VERY LOW. MVFR CONDITIONS SEEM LIKELY TO CONTINUE. FRIES OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STRATUS AND RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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