Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 201511 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1011 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Rain has returned to the region with a crossing trough of low pressure. Mild weather will continue through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... With 10:15am update, primary changes were to timing of rain showers as well as updating hourly temperature trends. Previous... A tilted and elongated trough will swing through the area this morning. The associated surface warm front will move through in the same direction, just ahead of the aforementioned upper level system. Showers will overspread the area from southwest to northeast. The showers will sweep through the area rather quickly, with the back edge reaching the northeast by late afternoon. Temperatures will average well above average today. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... With upper level heights rising quickly this evening and the atmosphere drying out, have continued with the previous thinking of keeping Friday night and Saturday dry. The next strong upper level system begins to take shape over the Tennessee Valley Sunday morning. Moisture will once again begin to stream northward on the eastern side of the developing 500mb low. At the surface, low pressure will rapidly develop over OK Sunday morning and move rapidly toward the east coast, reaching the Mid- Atlantic region Sunday afternoon. Have kept the highest PoPs Sunday during the afternoon hours, in conjunction with movement of the southern stream low. Temperatures both Saturday and Sunday will be well above normal with Saturday providing the warmest temperatures. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... There is still much uncertainty pertaining to the forecast Monday and Tuesday, as even the ensembles are trying to come to an agreement on the speed and path of the Mid-Atlantic/Coastal low. Have shied away from the operational NAM solution, as it remains an outlier when compared to ensemble data. It does appear that precipitation will overspread the area Monday into early Tuesday. It also looks like some colder air will be pulled into the area on Monday still many questions as to how much and where. Coastal low should move out to sea sometime Monday night or Tuesday morning. The next system is expected to bring precipitation back to the area on Wednesday. The superblend will be used for the long term. Temperatures through the extended will be above normal. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Expect widespread MVFR to IFR restrictions today as a crossing disturbance spreads rain over the region. Precip will end by evening across all areas, but IFR to low end MVFR cigs will linger into Saturday. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions are likely Saturday night into Monday with slow moving low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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