Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 152255 AAA AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 655 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Scattered showers will taper off across the southeast this evening. High pressure will keep the area dry on Saturday. A cold front will bring another round of rain Saturday night. Colder temperatures Sunday and to begin next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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KEY MESSAGES: - Rain shower activity will end this evening over the WV ridges. - Clouds will persist for much of the night. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Only minor changes for the overnight period. Updated PoPs to confine them to the WV ridges for a portion of the evening. Some changes in cloud cover for late tonight. Models are showing a break in the low clouds as dawn approaches but it fills in quickly as colder air swings through. Decreased the area of clearing. This also brought overnight lows up a couple of degrees. Rest of forecast in good shape. Previous discussion... Cloud cover is projected to remain for much of the night, though there could be some clearing across portions of eastern Ohio, as there is larger spread for values in this region. Cold advection and cloud cover will be the contributing factors to temperatures, which should be much closer to seasonal values overnight - in the low to mid 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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KEY MESSAGES: - High pressure will keep much of Saturday dry with diminishing cloud cover. - Shower chances return with a Saturday night cold front - Temperatures Saturday should be warmer than average, returning to seasonal appropriate temperatures Sunday. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weak high pressure will maintain dry conditions for much of Saturday. With plenty of insolation and weak warm advection in advance of the next cold front, temperatures Saturday should approach 60 degrees. Digging trough will pivot a cold front across the region Saturday night. Since most of the large-scale lift will be generally north of Pittsburgh, the highest precipitation probabilities are set around and north of I-80, where there is a >50% chance of measurable (0.01 inches) of precipitation. Behind the front, will be the return of more typical weather for the upper Ohio Valley in Spring - cloudy conditions and temperatures in the 50`s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Colder pattern returns Sunday into Monday with a large advancing trough. - Snow shower chances return Monday and Tuesday - Wind chill values will be abnormally cold early Tuesday (teens in the lower elevations/single digits to below zero in the higher terrain). - Above average temperatures return mid-week. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Long range ensemble models favor a cold pattern across the Ohio River Valley early next week as a large upper-level trough advances across the Great Lakes. Arctic air will drive high and low temperatures to be below average by a few degrees. With northwest flow, expect snow showers to return due to lake enhancement and upsloping. With the current sun angle, snow shower accumulation will likely be confided to the overnight period and be generally focused near I-80 and elevations above 2kft. Probability of 0.1 inches of snow early Monday morning is 70% or higher in these concentrated areas. With a strong gradient wind associated with the low and cold advection, expected wind chill values to be abnormally cold early Tuesday. Teens in the lower terrain, single digits to below freezing in the ridges of PA/WV. Models have been consistent that near to above average temperatures will return mid-week with a building ridge to our west. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Widespread MVFR ceilings are ongoing this afternoon in the wake of a cold frontal passage. These will begin to slowly lift overnight from the west -- more slowly than previous guidance suggested. Most of the area should return to VFR by 12z Saturday, PIT by around 06z. Ceilings will continue to lift early Saturday, eventually scattering out by late morning. Hi-res ensemble guidance continues to show a 40-60% probability for MVFR/IFR fog development early Saturday morning across northeastern OH and northwestern PA (generally northwest of PIT) between roughly 08Z and 14Z. Lower probabilities (10-30%) exist at most of our area terminals, and longer lingering cloud cover will also help to hamper fog development, so again left vsby restrictions out of the TAFs for this cycle. Northwest winds will back to more southwesterly Saturday morning before becoming breezy again in the afternoon. .Outlook... Restrictions and showers return Saturday night into early Sunday with a crossing cold front. Restrictions and scattered snow showers return Monday and Tuesday with another crossing cold front and subsequent upper troughing.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...22/34 NEAR TERM...22/34 SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM...Hefferan AVIATION...Cermak/Rackley

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