Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 100229 AAC AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 929 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... MUCH COLDER INTO LATE WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 930PM UPDATE...ANOTHER UPDATE OF POPS...WHICH IN TURN LEADS TO A CHANGE IN SNOWFALL. MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AS DRIER AIR HAS UNDERCUT THE MOISTURE MOVING OFF LAKE ERIE. STILL HAVE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND ALSO SOUTHEAST. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED USING LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND HIRES MODEL DATA. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN MODIFIED USING A BLEND OF HIRES DATA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. MEAN FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY BUT WILL WAVER AT TIMES...KEEPING BEST LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL WELL NORTH BUT WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT. SNOWFALL LOOKS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND NO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MINIMAL RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN COLD ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY UNTIL A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AS EASTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FRIDAY WILL DELIVER EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ALLOWED A MODEL BLEND TO BE USED. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUING TO SHOW SIGNS OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST DROPPING NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS TO ZERO OR BELOW. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EXCEPT FOR SOME RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN ALLOWS FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...LARGELY IFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A LARGE UPPER LOW SITS OVER THE AREA. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL WINDS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED ALOFT AND MORE ORGANIZED AS THE SECOND...MORE POTENT...PUSH OF COLD AIR MOVES IN. .OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER- LEVEL TROUGHING AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ001. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ049- 050-057>059-068-069. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ021- 029-031-073-075. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ074- 076. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ001>004-012-021-509. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ510>514. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.