Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 220718 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 318 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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COLD FRONT APPROACHING LAKE ERIE AT 07Z AND WILL SWEEP ACROSS REGION TODAY WITH A PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS...STRAY SHOWERS...AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. WARM ADVECTION JUST AHEAD OF FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER INTO THE 60S. COLD SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. GOOD SETUP FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING NOT THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S...TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-80 CORRIDOR. SOUTH OF THIS AREA AND DOWN THE RIDGES LOWS NOT THE MID 30S...WITH LOCALLY IN THE LOWERS 30S IN ELEVATED RIDGE VALLEYS. WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED AND FROST ADVISORY ISSUED. PATCHY FROST ALSO POSSIBLE FROM NEW PHILADELPHIA TO MORGANTOWN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUDS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY DEW POINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. NEW MODELS TRENDING BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT NORTH INTO NEW YORK STATE MONDAY...BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID MEMORIAL DAY IS IN STORE.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WEAK CROSSING SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST. AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED FOR A LATE WEEK PASSAGE WITH BETTER FOCUS FOR PRECIP. USED TWEAKED WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE TO SMOOTH OUT SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN VFR ALTOCU AND CU...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS. CLEARING SKIES AND GUSTY WNW WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WINDS SUBSIDING AROUND SUNSET. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ001. OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ041. PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-016. FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ013-014-020>023-029-073>076. WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ001-002-023-041.
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&& $$

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