Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 151654 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1254 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Scattered showers associated with a passing cold front will taper off this evening. High pressure will keep the upper Ohio valley dry for much of Saturday, before another cold front swings through the region bringing another round of rain Saturday night. A cool start to the workweek is expected with the potential for snow showers to return.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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KEY MESSAGES: - Rain shower activity will continue, mainly south of I-70 for the remainder of the afternoon/evening. - Cloudy conditions will persist for much of the night. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Cold front continues its trek to our south early this afternoon. Rain shower activity has really diminished but some widely scattered showers should continue to be generated where some low-mid level moisture remains. Precipitation amounts will generally be light, with some enhancement in the terrain due to upslope. Temperatures will generally fall throughout the day with cold advection and cloud cover. Cloud cover is projected to remain for much of the night, though there could be some clearing across portions of eastern Ohio, as there is larger spread for values in this region. Cold advection and cloud cover will be the contributing factors to temperatures, which should be much closer to seasonal values overnight - in the low to mid 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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KEY MESSAGES: - High pressure will keep much of Saturday dry with diminishing cloud cover. - Shower chances return with a Saturday night cold front - Temperatures Saturday should be warmer than average, returning to seasonal appropriate temperatures Sunday. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Weak high pressure will maintain dry conditions for much of Saturday. With plenty of insolation and weak warm advection in advance of the next cold front, temperatures Saturday should approach 60 degrees. Digging trough will pivot a cold front across the region Saturday night. Since most of the large-scale lift will be generally north of Pittsburgh, the highest precipitation probabilities are set around and north of I-80, where there is a >50% chance of measurable (0.01 inches) of precipitation. Behind the front, will be the return of more typical weather for the upper Ohio Valley in Spring - cloudy conditions and temperatures in the 50`s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Colder pattern returns Sunday into Monday with a large advancing trough. - Snow shower chances return Monday and Tuesday - Wind chill values will be abnormally cold early Tuesday (teens in the lower elevations/single digits to below zero in the higher terrain). - Above average temperatures return mid-week. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Long range ensemble models favor a cold pattern across the Ohio River Valley early next week as a large upper-level trough advances across the Great Lakes. Arctic air will drive high and low temperatures to be below average by a few degrees. With northwest flow, expect snow showers to return due to lake enhancement and upsloping. With the current sun angle, snow shower accumulation will likely be confided to the overnight period and be generally focused near I-80 and elevations above 2kft. Probability of 0.1 inches of snow early Monday morning is 70% or higher in these concentrated areas. With a strong gradient wind associated with the low and cold advection, expected wind chill values to be abnormally cold early Tuesday. Teens in the lower terrain, single digits to below freezing in the ridges of PA/WV. Models have been consistent that near to above average temperatures will return mid-week with a building ridge to our west. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Scattered showers continue to develop across NW PA in the vicinity of a cold front. This front will move slowly southward across the region today, as band of showers develops along and ahead of the it. Conditions will deteriorate to MVFR. with after FROPA. Expect a WSHFT to the NW and further lowering of cigs to IFR to low MVFR. IFR is now expected to reach as far south as PIT, at least for a period this morning. Cigs should gradually improve later in the afternoon, with most airports reaching VFR levels by evening, with the exception of FKL and DUJ. .Outlook... Low confidence that patchy fog develops tonight/Saturday morning. VFR is expected Saturday under high pressure. Restrictions and showers return Saturday night into early Sunday with a crossing cold front. Restriction and scatted snow showers return Monday and Tuesday with a crossing cold front and subsequent upper troughing. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...34 NEAR TERM...34 SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM...Hefferan AVIATION...WM

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