Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 151654
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1254 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
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Scattered showers associated with a passing cold front will
taper off this evening. High pressure will keep the upper Ohio
valley dry for much of Saturday, before another cold front
swings through the region bringing another round of rain
Saturday night. A cool start to the workweek is expected with
the potential for snow showers to return.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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KEY MESSAGES:
- Rain shower activity will continue, mainly south of I-70 for
the remainder of the afternoon/evening.
- Cloudy conditions will persist for much of the night.
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Cold front continues its trek to our south early this
afternoon. Rain shower activity has really diminished but some
widely scattered showers should continue to be generated where
some low-mid level moisture remains. Precipitation amounts will
generally be light, with some enhancement in the terrain due to
upslope. Temperatures will generally fall throughout the day
with cold advection and cloud cover.
Cloud cover is projected to remain for much of the night, though
there could be some clearing across portions of eastern Ohio, as
there is larger spread for values in this region. Cold
advection and cloud cover will be the contributing factors to
temperatures, which should be much closer to seasonal values
overnight - in the low to mid 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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KEY MESSAGES:
- High pressure will keep much of Saturday dry with diminishing
cloud cover.
- Shower chances return with a Saturday night cold front
- Temperatures Saturday should be warmer than average, returning
to seasonal appropriate temperatures Sunday.
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Weak high pressure will maintain dry conditions for much of
Saturday. With plenty of insolation and weak warm advection in
advance of the next cold front, temperatures Saturday should
approach 60 degrees.
Digging trough will pivot a cold front across the region
Saturday night. Since most of the large-scale lift will be
generally north of Pittsburgh, the highest precipitation
probabilities are set around and north of I-80, where there is a
>50% chance of measurable (0.01 inches) of precipitation.
Behind the front, will be the return of more typical weather for
the upper Ohio Valley in Spring - cloudy conditions and
temperatures in the 50`s.-- End Changed Discussion --
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.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Colder pattern returns Sunday into Monday with a large
advancing trough.
- Snow shower chances return Monday and Tuesday
- Wind chill values will be abnormally cold early Tuesday (teens
in the lower elevations/single digits to below zero in the
higher terrain).
- Above average temperatures return mid-week.
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Long range ensemble models favor a cold pattern across the Ohio
River Valley early next week as a large upper-level trough
advances across the Great Lakes. Arctic air will drive
high and low temperatures to be below average by a few degrees.
With northwest flow, expect snow showers to return due to lake
enhancement and upsloping. With the current sun angle, snow
shower accumulation will likely be confided to the overnight
period and be generally focused near I-80 and elevations above
2kft. Probability of 0.1 inches of snow early Monday morning is
70% or higher in these concentrated areas.
With a strong gradient wind associated with the low and cold
advection, expected wind chill values to be abnormally cold
early Tuesday. Teens in the lower terrain, single digits to
below freezing in the ridges of PA/WV.
Models have been consistent that near to above average
temperatures will return mid-week with a building ridge to our
west.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered showers continue to develop across NW PA in
the vicinity of a cold front. This front will move slowly
southward across the region today, as band of showers develops
along and ahead of the it. Conditions will deteriorate to MVFR.
with after FROPA. Expect a WSHFT to the NW and further lowering
of cigs to IFR to low MVFR. IFR is now expected to reach as far
south as PIT, at least for a period this morning. Cigs should
gradually improve later in the afternoon, with most airports
reaching VFR levels by evening, with the exception of FKL and
DUJ.
.Outlook...
Low confidence that patchy fog develops tonight/Saturday
morning. VFR is expected Saturday under high pressure.
Restrictions and showers return Saturday night into early Sunday
with a crossing cold front. Restriction and scatted snow
showers return Monday and Tuesday with a crossing cold front and
subsequent upper troughing.
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.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...34
NEAR TERM...34
SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...WM