Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 290517 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 117 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD TODAY AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE. RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SKIRT OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT SKIES HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY CLEAR AREA-WIDE. THIS AND THE VAST AMOUNT OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS RESULTED IN YET ANOTHER QUICK COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. GLANCING AT OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE FORECAST AREA SHOW TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF URBAN CORRIDORS AND MAINSTEM RIVER VALLEYS REACHING INTO THE MID 50S ALREADY. FORECAST LOW MARKS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED DOWN A FEW DEGREES PRETTY MUCH ACROSS THE BOARD. THE LOWER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH STEADY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S MEANS ANOTHER MORNING OF PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. IN FACT...HAVE ALREADY SEEN A FEW CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE LOCATIONS DROP VISIBILITY UNDER PATCHY FOG CONDITIONS. HAVE INSERTED THE MENTION OF FOG IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...PRIMARILY HOLDING TO THE RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY TODAY AFTER SUNRISE AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. UPPER-LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT COPIOUS DRY AIR AND WEAKENING DYNAMICS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF SATURDAY DRY. TAX && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... AT THIS POINT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS UNTIL LATER SUNDAY WHEN THE FRONT CROSSES. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT STRETCHING AND BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY PROGGED...MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS THAT WERE INHERITED BY THE MID SHIFT. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND SUPPRESS PRECIP NEXT WEEK. TWEAKED WPC GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... QUICKLY FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STEADY DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN COMBINE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG CONDITIONS...MAINLY IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE LOCATIONS. HAVE INCLUDED IFR FOG TEMPO GROUPS FOR BVI/HLG/ZZV/FKL/DUJ WITH THIS UPDATE. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT AT THIS POINT IS WHETHER THE HIGH CLOUDS CAN INCREASE THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND HOLD OFF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. OUTSIDE OF THE MORNING FOG CHANCES...THE AREA WILL REMAIN RESTRICTION FREE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING HIGH CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 5-10KTS WHILE VEERING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. TAX OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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