Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 041845 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 145 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... RAIN AND MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED INTO NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COLD INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... HAVE CLEARED THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FROM FLOOD WATCH AS NO ADDITIONAL RAIN OR SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF EXPECTED NORTH OF PITTSBURGH. NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME FOR WINTER HEADLINES OR SNOW AMOUNTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. BULK OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION NOW HEADING INTO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES AS COLDER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE PUSHES SOUTHEAST. EXPECT RAIN ALONG I-70 TO MIX OVER TO SNOW OR A BIT OF SLEET BEFORE DIMINISHING FOR A TIME. BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL OHIO WITH LEADING EDGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SAG SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WAVE WITH SHORTWAVE ALOFT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG BOUNDARY. SNOW WILL REDEVELOP SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS AREAS FROM PITTSBURGH SOUTH TOWARD SUNSET AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY. STILL APPEARS BEST LIFT AND QPF WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WHERE WARNING IS IN PLACE. NORTH OF THIS REGION MAY BE A SHARPER CUTOFF TO SNOW AND AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF ADVISORY AREA MAY BE LOWERED A BIT LATER TODAY DEPENDING ON INCOMING DATA. SNOW WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY MORNING WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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WEATHER PATTERN QUIETS DOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST AND KICKS OUT THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM. LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THURS NIGHT AND SKIES WILL BEGIN CLEARING FROM THE WEST. REMNANT SKY COVER WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH CALM WINDS AND THE PRESENCE OF A FRESH SNOW PACK...FOR AT LEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA...ALL SIGNS POINT TO DECOUPLING OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO CRATER WELL BELOW AVERAGE. MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SHOW AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS HOLDING IN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FRI...WHICH WOULD DISRUPT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THINK THIS ROUTE IS A BIT CONSERVATIVE...AND HAVE HELD LOWS BELOW THOSE NUMBERS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER AND CLEARER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NEXT SYSTEM POISED TO STREAM NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. NAM/ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS RELATIVELY DRY SYSTEM...AND THEREFORE FOLLOWED THIS TO INTRODUCE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY EVENING. TAX
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET WITH A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FEATURING PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. POPS WERE FORECAST GENERALLY BELOW CHANCE CLIMO NUMBERS USING GFS TIMING...BUT LONG TERM CONFIDENCE IS MINIMAL WITH DOUBTS ABOUT TIMING AND MOISTURE SUPPLY. SEASONALLY COOL TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST VIA PERSISTENCE AND MOS. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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LOW MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COPIOUS MOISTURE FLOWS NORTH AND GENERATES PRECIPITATION ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. FOR TERMINALS NORTH AND WEST OF LBE/MGW...SNOW WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EVENT. AT LBE/MGW CURRENT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BANDING TONIGHT COULD RESULT IN LIFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS. FAR NORTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE MODERATE SNOW...BUT MVFR/IFR SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH LOW CIGS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER DAYBREAK FROM WEST TO EAST. TAX .OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING COLD FRONT.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... THE COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT AND DEVELOPING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE CHEAT... MONONGAHELA AND YOUGHIOGHENY RIVER BASINS. THESE RISES WILL AID IN MOVING ICE INTO AREAS WHERE ICE JAMS ARE KNOWN TO DEVELOP. THE RISES WILL MOST LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AMOUNTS REMAINS LOW...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A ZANESVILLE TO LATROBE LINE. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ001. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ001. OH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ049-050-057>059- 068-069. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ049-050- 057>059-068. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ069. PA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ021-029-031- 073>076. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ021-023- 029-031-073>075. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ076. WV...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ001>004-012- 021>023-041. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ001>004. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ012- 021>023-041.
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