Area Forecast Discussion
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097 FXUS61 KPBZ 240214 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1014 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will provide dry weather through Wednesday before shower chances return early Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Only changes for the late evening update were to hourly temperatures, and to drop forecast lows a degree or two as readings are dropping off more quickly with calm winds. Another night of radiational cooling expected will result in similar conditions as this morning with temperatures lowering to near seasonal averages with high pressure in place. As surface ridge shifts east Wednesday temperatures will begin to warm into the middle 80s as low level flow turns south and dew points begin to slowly creep up. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Moisture is then forecast to increase via southwest flow ahead of a shortwave trough. Have added POPs Wednesday night as the first of a few shortwaves is forecast to progress faster than previously thought. Another passing shortwave with a surface cold front is expected to help initiate thunderstorms in the afternoon. While omega fields do not seem strong, marginal to moderate instability coupled with mostly unidirectional flow may help sustain some organized thunderstorms. Precipitation chances wane early Friday as the boundary shifts southeast. High pressure will slowly settle over region and help dissipate clouds by Friday evening. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface high pressure and a building upper-level ridge should keep the weekend dry. 12z GFS brings in the early week system a little faster, spreading QPF across our northern counties by Sunday night. Sticking close to the Superblend, which keeps the bulk of the rain threat confined to Monday. Confidence thereafter lowers as guidance diverges with diagnosing amplification of upper-level flow pattern. As has been the general trend, temperatures will be a few degrees above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure should maintain VFR conditions through Wednesday. An approaching shortwave is expected to result in an increase in clouds by late Wednesday, though any shower restrictions should be after the end of the TAF period. .OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Periodic restriction chances should persist through Friday with the approach and passage of a cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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