Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 290832 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 432 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT RESULTING IN RAIN AND SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WILL RECOVER TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH OVER THE AREA SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. MINIMAL CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE 40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY LATE SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...OVERCOMING THE VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER QUICKLY AS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL NOT EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM IS QUICK MOVING AND WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE SHOWN DECENT CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND STILL EXPECT THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE TO BE RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AND SNOW LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO AT LEAST BE OBSERVED AS FAR SOUTH AS PITTSBURGH BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY BRUSH BY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY BUT SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...SNOW WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO NORTHERN ZONES WITH AS THERE WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. WHILE 00Z GFS SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT SOME FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...00Z ECMWF IS EVEN SLOWER THAN THAT. HOWEVER...WITH DECENT ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...WILL STICK WITH GFS TIMING AND BRING IN LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY UNTIL IT MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. THURSDAY WILL EASILY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING THE 60S. TEMPS WILL DROP ABOUT 10 DEGREES EACH DAY...LEADING BACK TO YET ANOTHER PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL VALUES.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO ALL SITES...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT REACH MGW UNTIL AFTER THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. SOUTH AND WEST OF PITTSBURGH SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN...WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN ELSEWHERE. CEILINGS WITH PRECIPITATION SHOULD INITIALLY BEGIN AS VFR...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DROP TO MVFR. SOME MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IF WINDS DECOUPLE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF PITTSBURGH...BUT DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. .OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... RESTRICTION POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN WITH CROSSING LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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