Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 071809 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 109 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Other than isolated snow showers this afternoon, mainly dry and cold weather is expected until snow shower chances return with a Saturday cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Minor updates made to the near-term forecast based on latest obs and model guidance. Previous discussion follows.. Patchy stratocu should continue to cross the area with broad upper troughing and cold air aloft. A crossing shortwave with weak lift/moisture in the snow growth region could result in some isolated snow showers this afternoon, with scattered coverage in the higher terrain E-SE of PIT. A weak shortwave across NW PA could produce isolated snow showers there also, though boundary layer flow is progged to stay SW to WSW keeping any lake enhancement N of the area. Temperatures are expected to be around 5 degrees below seasonal levels. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A broad upper trough is progged to persist across the Eastern CONUS through the period as it gradually deepens through the weekend. The sharpening trough and an associated weak surface low and cold front is progged to cross the Lower Great Lakes and Upper OH Valley region Sat and Sat evening. Maintained likely POPs for snow showers with it`s approach and passage. Some light accumulations are possible. Temperatures are expected to remain 5 to 10 degrees below average. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A longwave trough is progged to persist across the Eastern CONUS through the period, as shortwaves rotate through the trough and maintain periodic snow shower chances. Temperatures are expected to average around 10 degrees below seasonal levels most days through the period. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Isolated to scattered snow showers will continue at many terminals through the afternoon. Most locations have dropped to MVFR conditions in the snow showers, with only one or two isolated IFR visibility reports. Gusts have not been as widespread as previously forecast, and have lowered gusts in the forecasts where gusts were still included. Any precipitation should come to an end by the evening, with gusts also diminishing at that time. Some clearing will start to work into southeast Ohio overnight as the wave departs. .Outlook... The next chance for widespread restrictions is Saturday afternoon/evening as a shortwave trough approaches and increases chances for snow.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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