Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 200131 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 931 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Patchy fog overnight followed by a slight chance of isolated showers and general thunderstorms south and west of Pittsburgh Wednesday afternoon. Warm and humid conditions will continue into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Overnight, a frontal boundary will continue to struggle to move southeast, while the mid-level shortwave and upper cold pool begin to slip to our southwest into the middle Ohio Valley. This may allow for a few isolated showers overnight in southeast Ohio/parts of northern West Virginia but chances were too low for inclusion in the zones. Cloud coverage will also persist over the western half of the CWA while the eastern half clears out. With that...expect most overnight fog development from the OH/PA border and east. Above-normal temperatures were maintained overnight, a pattern which will continue through the balance of the forecast period.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The upper wave continues its trek to our south on Wednesday, and with another modestly unstable afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms will again be possible, mainly south of Pittsburgh. Warm mid levels should keep activity suppressed to the north. After the wave exits, ridging will become even more firmly entrenched over the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes as a deep trough develops over the northwest U.S. This will lead to dry weather and further warming through Thursday. Highs in the mid 80s will become more common. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Little change in the large-scale circulation pattern is expected during the extended period, with the western trough/eastern ridge setup maintaining, if not strengthening, through early next week. As a result, a dry and quite warm forecast continues. With 850mb temps soaring to the 17-19C range, most locations outside of the ridges will soar well into the 80s. Cannot rule out eventually needing a 90 degree reading or two in the warmer locations. Continued to run with warmer temperatures than suggested by SuperBlend/MEX. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Fog development possible as has been the case for several nights, however, cloud coverage along and west of the PA/OH border will limit development over those areas. AGC/FKL/DUJ/MGW/LBE should see IFR vis restrictions develop again overnight under limited cloud coverage. .Outlook... Other than local morning fog, no widespread restrictions expected through Sun with building ridging.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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