Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 300909 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 509 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak boundary will give scattered thunderstorms to the ridges this afternoon, otherwise dry and warm under high pressure into the middle of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Early morning update to add patchy fog through sunrise, and to pull shower chances a bit father west to Pittsburgh as slow movement of boundary may allow isolated showers to develop this afternoon along and east of Interstate 79. No other changes and previous discussion follows. A weak boundary over central Ohio will move east and wash out this afternoon. Chance pops across the ridges for showers and thunderstorms were maintained for the afternoon. The boundary will usher in slightly lower dew points with max temperatures remaining around 5 degrees above average. Clear with near seasonal temperatures tonight under high pressure.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Surface high pressure will bring dry weather into Wednesday with warm temperatures, as an upper level ridge builds over New England. By Thursday general model agreement on a mid level trough and an associated cold front approaching late Wednesday night and crossing the region Thursday. Chance pops late Wednesday night will increase to likely Thursday with the front, with temperatures remaining above average.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Cold front will be slowly exiting east for the start of the period. Model guidance suggests that the boundary will lag in its passage through Friday. Thus, chance pops were maintained in the forecast. Despite some upper level pattern differences by Saturday, model consensus suggests a deepening trough over the eastern-CONUS/Great Lakes as a ridge builds in the west. A series of systems are progged to maintain a chance for showers through this period. With uncertainty, will keep pops and temperatures at or below superblend guidance. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Restrictions in MVFR/IFR fog will be possible through the early morning hours at several of the TAF sites. The persistence forecast appears to be evolving well, as LBE and HLG have already experienced IFR visibility. Expect the trend to continue elsewhere, especially where rain was recorded yesterday. Since the cold front will take it`s time getting here, dewpoints remain elevated. Some high clouds may limit fog development over Ohio and northern PA but otherwise, light wind should support fog until daybreak. VFR conditions will return everywhere by 12-14z with scattered cu developing in the afternoon. Some showers/thunderstorms may develop in the vicinity of LBE tomorrow depending on the speed at which the cold front exits. At this time, will leave this mention out. .OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The next chance for more widespread restrictions will be with a front Thursday night into Friday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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