Area Forecast Discussion
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091 FXUS61 KPBZ 100748 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 248 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... MUCH COLDER INTO LATE WEEK WITH SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH LIKELY POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. MEAN FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY BUT WILL WAVER AT TIMES...KEEPING BEST LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL WELL NORTH BUT WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT. COLDER AIR WILL AGAIN BE WORKING ACROSS THE REGION WITH A MINIMAL RECOVERY FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN COLD ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY UNTIL A SMALL BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AS EASTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FRIDAY WILL DELIVER EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ALLOWED A MODEL BLEND TO BE USED. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUING TO SHOW SIGNS OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST DROPPING NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS TO ZERO OR BELOW. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW EXCEPT FOR SOME RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY BEFORE NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN ALLOWS FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...LARGELY IFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A LARGE UPPER LOW SITS OVER THE AREA. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL WINDS BECOME BETTER ALIGNED ALOFT AND MORE ORGANIZED AS THE SECOND...MORE POTENT...PUSH OF COLD AIR MOVES IN. .OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY UNDER COLD UPPER- LEVEL TROUGHING AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ001. OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ041. PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ074-076. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ013-014-016-020>023-073-075. WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ510>514.
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