Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 221840 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 240 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will end showers this evening, followed by dry and seasonably cool conditions through Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Lake enhanced showers in northwest flow will continue to shift north and east this evening while diminishing, as the flow turns more westerly with building high pressure. Cold advection will end early tonight as surface high shifts east, with west winds gradually bringing warm advection toward daybreak. With this in mind did not bring in a substantial diurnal drop in temperatures overnight. Developing southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front Sunday afternoon will help warm temperatures into the 60s for the most part, with a bit cooler reading along the I-80 corridor. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A weak shortwave and a fast moving cold front will cross the region later Sunday night into early Monday, followed by dry high pressure for Tuesday. Chance POPs with frontal passage as moisture will be limited. Temperatures behind the front will be around 5 degrees below the seasonal average. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The next significant weather will be with a fairly strong shortwave and surface low pressure moving across the great lakes later Wednesday night into Thursday. Likely POPs included for this system until it shifts east to New England later Thursday night. Another cold front will approach by Saturday bringing shower chances back to the forecast. Temperatures will be near or just below the seasonal averages through the period. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MVFR to low VFR conditions are expected to continue through much of the afternoon with an upper low in close proximity and cool northwest flow. Lake enhanced showers should continue to shift east as winds gradually back more to the west. Did include tempo deteriorated conditions in select ports where showers are expected. A tight pressure gradient should result in W-NW winds gusting to 25kt at times before diminishing after sunset. Mainly VFR stratocu should persist much of the night with cool W-NW flow off the Great Lakes, though building high pressure should bring a general clearing trend by Sunday morning for most ports. .OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Restrictions are possible with a Sunday night cold front, and with subsequent upper troughing and northwest flow through Tuesday. Restrictions are possible again with a Thursday cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.