Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 220947 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 447 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... MIDWESTERN LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN TO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. SNOW SHOWER CHANCES WILL COME WITH THE PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEMS COLD FRONT ON CHRISTMAS. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CLDS ARE EXPD TO INCR TDA IN WRM ADVCTN. A WK SFC LOW IS EXPD TO ADVN UP THE E COAST INTO THE CAROLINAS TDA...THOUGH RECENT UPR AIR CHARTS AND MESO DATA INDICATE MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN SHOULD RMN TO OUR E. WITH COLD AIR DAMMING IN SE FLOW...IF ANY PCPN WERE TO RCH GARRETT OR TUCKER COUNTIES...A BRF PD OF LGT FRZG RAIN IS PSBL. CONTD WITH LOW CHC POPS IN THESE AREAS. HIGHS SHOULD AVG A LTL ABV THE SEASONAL LVLS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE ADVNG WK SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO CONT TO ADVN UP AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TNGT. AGAIN...MOST PCPN SHOULD RMN TO OUR E HOWEVER MENTIONED LOW CHC POPS FOR AREAS NE-SE OF PIT WHERE AGAIN A BRF PD OF LGT FRZG RAIN IS PSBL FOR THE MD/WV MOUNTAINS AND IN COLDER VLY LOCATIONS NE OF PIT. A DIGGING UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO ADVN FM THE CNTRL CONUS INTO THE GT LKS RGN BY THU. MDL SOLNS VARY...BUT GIVEN THE DIGGING TROF THINK THE NAM IS SGFNTLY UNDERDOING THE DVLPMNT OF SFC FEATURES... SO SIDED CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF. SVRL SHRTWVS ROTATING ARND THE TROF WL BRING INCRG RAIN CHCS INTO MID WK. DVLPG SFC LOW PRES IS PROGGED TO ADVN FM THE GULF COAST INTO THE LWR GT LKS TUE NGT INTO WED EVE. AN ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A WED EVE/NGT PASSAGE...WITH THE UPR TROF AXIS PROGGED FOR A CHRISTMAS DAY PASSAGE. ANY RAIN SHWRS SHOULD MIX WITH AND CHG TO SNW SHWRS AS COLDER AIR ADVCTS IN AFT FROPA...AND THE UPR TROF CROSSES...THOUGH NO SGFNT ACCUMS ARE EXPD ATTM. TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT WED NGT AND THU SHOULD ALSO BRING GUSTY WNDS. ABV AVG ERLY TO MID WK TEMPS SHOULD RTN TO SEASONAL LVLS BY THU. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED AS LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWED BOTH POOR AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY...AND ANY CHANGES THAT WERE MADE WERE PRIMARILY BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS. WITH THAT...DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS RIDGING TRANSITIONS OVER THE REGION. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN RESULT IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AS CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASES OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES...BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AND RESULTS IN CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE REGION. OUTLOOK.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION....WITH GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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