Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS -- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KPBZ 300111
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
911 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017
Another low pressure system brings rain to the region late
Thursday through Friday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --Main change for the overnight period was to raise overnight low
temperatures slightly, as hourly values are running a bit above
previous forecast. With increasing clouds and warm advection
overnight, thought the move was prudent, and I may not have gone
warm enough. Also did some minor adjustments to PoPs for
Thursday. Focused higher values north of Pittsburgh during the
day, where better isentropic lift/moistening will be realized
ahead of the approaching warm front. Kept thunder out of the
forecast, as warming aloft should keep any convection capped
off. A wet Thursday night remains likely as the maturing surface
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers will continue everywhere Friday morning, with the
chances for showers beginning to diminish Friday afternoon and
Friday night. Lingering low level moisture may keep widely
scattered showers possible through the first part of Saturday
before building subsidence brings an end to precipitation. Above
normal temperatures are forecast on Friday before dropping to at
or slightly below normal values for Saturday.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
While the second half of the weekend will be dry, showers will
begin to threaten the area on Monday, with Monday night having
the greatest chance for showers. While showers could possibly
hold on into Tuesday, a bit of model uncertainty develops for
the timing of the next low pressure system to arrive. Some model
guidance shows rain moving in on Wednesday, with other guidance
delaying rain until Thursday. Temperatures will generally stay
close to or slightly above average for early April.
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR under clear skies will last through late this evening. High
clouds will begin to stream in from the west and southwest
overnight. Increasing low-level moisture will then begin to pool
west of the Ridges tonight, ahead of a warm front. A descent to
low VFR is expected through the duration of the TAF period,
with rain chances increasing Thursday morning/afternoon.
Outlook... Restrictions are likely again from late Thursday
through Saturday as another broad low affects the Upper Ohio