Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 300111 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 911 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Another low pressure system brings rain to the region late Thursday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Main change for the overnight period was to raise overnight low temperatures slightly, as hourly values are running a bit above previous forecast. With increasing clouds and warm advection overnight, thought the move was prudent, and I may not have gone warm enough. Also did some minor adjustments to PoPs for Thursday. Focused higher values north of Pittsburgh during the day, where better isentropic lift/moistening will be realized ahead of the approaching warm front. Kept thunder out of the forecast, as warming aloft should keep any convection capped off. A wet Thursday night remains likely as the maturing surface low approaches.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Showers will continue everywhere Friday morning, with the chances for showers beginning to diminish Friday afternoon and Friday night. Lingering low level moisture may keep widely scattered showers possible through the first part of Saturday before building subsidence brings an end to precipitation. Above normal temperatures are forecast on Friday before dropping to at or slightly below normal values for Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... While the second half of the weekend will be dry, showers will begin to threaten the area on Monday, with Monday night having the greatest chance for showers. While showers could possibly hold on into Tuesday, a bit of model uncertainty develops for the timing of the next low pressure system to arrive. Some model guidance shows rain moving in on Wednesday, with other guidance delaying rain until Thursday. Temperatures will generally stay close to or slightly above average for early April. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR under clear skies will last through late this evening. High clouds will begin to stream in from the west and southwest overnight. Increasing low-level moisture will then begin to pool west of the Ridges tonight, ahead of a warm front. A descent to low VFR is expected through the duration of the TAF period, with rain chances increasing Thursday morning/afternoon. Outlook... Restrictions are likely again from late Thursday through Saturday as another broad low affects the Upper Ohio Valley. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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