Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 220511 AAC AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1211 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Scattered snow showers will be ending this morning and much colder air will overspread the region. Dry weather can then be expected until the approach of the next front on Saturday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Overnight period in good shape. Would expect precipitation associated with cold front to expand a bit overnight as main shortwave drives through the area late tonight and this morning. Most of the precipitation would likely be post-frontal in the area of large scale ascension and increased atmospheric instability. Since a large chunk of the precipitation will be in the colder air, light rain showers will quickly change to light snow showers or flurries. Good shot of cold air will overspread the region today. Any lingering snow showers would likely be confined to the I-80 corridor and the ridges. Forecast soundings are showing inversion levels dropping quickly in the cold air, putting the saturated layer below the dendritic growth zone. Snow showers to the north would be driven by the possibility of lake enhanced bands developing and snow showers over the highest ridges would be orographically influenced. With strong cold air advection today and a stratocu cloud deck, temperatures will be well below normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Surface high pressure under broad upper troughing will ensure a dry, but cool conditions through the end of the week.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Ensemble forecasts are showing the next cold front dropping through the area on Saturday with fairly weak support for precipitation, followed by the next trough setting up over the Eastern CONUS. Cold weather is thus projected to start the new week. && .AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Condition deterioration is expected tonight with the encroachment of a cold front. Expect MVFR cigs with rain changing to snow and lcl IFR, especially at FKl and DUJ. Cold advection on nw wind in the wake of the front will maintain MVFR cigs through Wednesday for ports east of ZZV. .Outlook... The next chance for restrictions is forecast with a Saturday cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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