Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 300037 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 837 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An unsettled weather pattern will continue through the week as a series of cold fronts affect the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Another update was issued to account for persistent showers as per encroachment of a weak shortwave and prefrontal trough. As the upper trough and associated sfc front progress eastward tonight, more of this light convection may develop, so have eliminate the evening break and have maintained at least isolated pops through the night for most of the area.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Water vapor imagery shows the next elongated shortwave trough extending from srn Michigan back through central Illinois, and should arrive across the western CWA toward daybreak. Lift associated with this feature appears to be a bit more pronounced that its predecessor coming through this afternoon, and expect an uptick in radar coverage tomorrow (particularly over the eastern CWA), as it begins to lift out with a slight negative tilt enhancing ascent over the area. With deep layer moisture absent, expect that QPF will be rather light, with only the eastern mountains having the potential to exceed 1/4 inch. Nonetheless, expect at least scattered if not numerous showers over the area tomorrow morning into the afternoon. Once again, partial clearing is expected late day into Tuesday night before a third vorticity lobe pivots across the area on Wednesday with another bout of scattered, mainly light, showers. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... With the longwave axis of this closed upper low shifting east of the area by Wednesday night, this should portend a cool and dry stretch for Thursday and Friday before a secondary upper low digs southward through eastern Canada. A much more vigorous, almost winter-like, cold front will sweep southward across the area late Friday into Saturday morning bringing the likelihood for heavier rainfall (thunderstorms) and below normal temperatures for the balance of the upcoming weekend. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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General VFR is expected through the TAF period although an approaching upper trough/associated front should trigger some scattered showers through Tuesday. .Outlook... Restrictions are possible Wed under the upper trough, and again Fri with another front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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