Area Forecast Discussion
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126 FXUS61 KPBZ 300911 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 511 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Periodic showers and storms will continue through the weekend until high pressure brings the return of dry conditions for much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... An approaching shortwave will help lift a stalled surface boundary north across the forecast area today and upper level divergence will also increase as the area transitions to a more favorable position under the jet. This combined with a moist and unstable boundary layer will result in more convective coverage today. Progged instability is marginal with slim profiles and even the chronically overdone NAM forecasting cape values to remain under 1000, so the severe threat is low. Forecast precipitation amounts over the 24 hour period will range from a quarter inch across far southwestern zones, increasing to the northwest up to three quarters of an inch on average over Jefferson and Forest counties where the greatest synoptic lift will be. Locally higher amounts will be possible at locations that see deeper convection with PWATs around 1.75" on average and warm cloud processes dominating but overall rain rates should remain reasonable given the marginal instability. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Shower and storm chances will continue on Sunday as the upper trough continues to transition east and the surface low associated with the aforementioned boundary crosses across the north. Drier air will finally begin to move in aloft on the backside of the trough which will bring an end to shower/storm chances by Sunday night. Maintained a dry forecast for Monday under continued dry northwesterly flow, but there is an outside chance of afternoon storms as latest model runs indicate a small jet streak developing Monday afternoon and just enough low-level moisture remaining. May need to include mention of showers/storms in future updates if models show continuity with this feature. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure will keep the forecast dry through the middle of the work week. Although the GFS suggests that an isolated shower/storm could approach the region Thursday, will stick with a slower solution shown by ensembles/ECMWF and hold off on mention of precipitation until Friday with a cold front. With 500mb heights slowly building through the extended forecast, temperatures should also slowly rise. Although highs on Tuesday will start off near seasonable values, temps will approach the 90 degree mark in many locations once again by Friday. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Although fog cannot be ruled out this morning, as of 09Z it appears that mid clouds may have negated much of that threat. The exception at the moment is Latrobe as a result of clear skies earlier in the morning hours. Although all locations are expected to receive rain during the day, widespread restrictions do not appear likely at this time. The best chance for restrictions will come from any moderate/heavy showers/storms that develop. The threat for fog/stratus Saturday night into Sunday morning depends on rainfall during the day and how quickly clouds can clear out, with nearly calm winds a factor that would promote restrictions. .OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Broad upper troughing should maintain periodic shower and thunderstorm restriction potential through Monday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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