Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 270129 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 929 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm, dry weather will be interrupted by showers and storms with a Thursday cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Generally light southerly flow will continue over the area overnight as high pressure starts to slip eastward. Subsidence from this should allow for clear skies to remain (outside of some convective blow-off cirrus which may skirt the western areas through midnight), which coupled with dewpoints in the 50s, which will be about the lows in the morning, as well as wet soil across the eastern portions of the CWA, may allow for some local fog formation around Jefferson County, PA, or amongst the ridges. Otherwise, clear and mild conditions will prevail through morning. Fries
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front associated with an occluding system will cross the CWA during the late afternoon/early evening. Latest model runs have followed suit with previous runs progging a slightly faster solution. The pre-frontal environment during the afternoon will feature plenty of shear but instability looks to be marginal as moisture advection will be weaker this far north as the surface low occludes and daytime max temperatures are forecast to be slightly cooler than previous advertised which will make warmer air aloft in the lower levels difficult to overcome. Thus, SPCs continued marginal risk seems appropriate. Without any other triggers...activity may be limited to along the frontal boundary as it crosses. In any case, there would still be potential for damaging winds and/or hail in with any storms that develop strong updrafts given the wind fields. Dry weather returns behind the front Thursday night and Friday as ridging builds aloft. Above normal temperatures will continue. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An active pattern is figured for the weekend into early next week. A few shortwaves will cross in continued moist southwest flow along the front of a broad trough, leading to rain chances for Saturday and Sunday. Timing remains tricky, but Saturday night currently looks to be the period with the lowest coverage in the warm sector. Temperatures remain above normal. The trough lifts out as a closed upper low into the Great Lakes by Monday, pushing a fairly strong boundary across us. Given system strength, the amount of moisture, and a possibly negative tilt to the upper trough, strong storms appear possible. Behind this system, quieter weather and seasonable temperatures are expected into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will maintain clear skies and light winds through the night. Some local fog will be possible around KDUJ, but confidence precludes inclusion in the forecast. Increasing southerly flow will characterize Thursday. A cold front will move from west to east across the area during the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms with very gusty winds will be likely with this. Some restrictions are possible in and behind the front. Fries .Outlook... Periodic restrictions are possible this weekend a front stalls across the region, then returns northward as a warm front. Restrictions are likely Sunday night and Monday with cold-front- associated showers and storms. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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