Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 200523 AAC AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1223 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm weather is expected under a high pressure ridge through early Wednesday. Rain chances return with a Wednesday afternoon cold front. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... No changes to the overnight forecast. Record breaking temperatures today. The warm front will rest well to the north of the area, and the strengthening upper- level ridge will build in from the south. There will be peaks of sunshine through passing mid and high clouds today as the south-southwesterly flow fully mixes down the drier air above the surface. High temperatures were kept on the high side of guidance. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The UL ridge will keep the forecast area dry into Wednesday morning. Eventually, the upper-level flow will steer the central U.S. low northeastward through Ontario, flopping the cold front over our area northwest to southeast Wednesday afternoon. Best widespread rain chances look to be with the frontal passage. Wednesday will begin very warm ahead of the front and we could make a run at a few record highs, especially south and east of PIT. Front will be lacking in upper level support, so rainfall coverage and rates are expected to decrease as the front drifts through the region. Cold front will drift south of the area late Wednesday night, but will stall just south of the area as it runs into the strong southeastern US ridge. Area will remain on the northern periphery of the ridge, and with the southwest flow aloft, moisture and upper level energy will continue to spread over the region. This will necessitate keeping in the risk for widespread showers on Thursday, with the rain shield drifting southward Thursday afternoon in line with the shifting of the deep moisture. Temperatures will cool behind the front Wednesday night and by Thursday will return to just slightly above seasonal levels. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Several shortwaves will pass through the mean flow and could result in additional hydrologic concerns through the weekend. Model differences certainly do exist during this time, but rain chances were kept in the likely range for much of the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will area-wide through the forecast period. LLWS will remain in the forecast, until daytime heating will mixes these stronger winds downward to the surface. This will create wind gusts of up to 25 knots out of the southwest through the afternoon. OUTLOOK... The risk for widespread restrictions returns late Wednesday and Wednesday night with the passage of a cold front. && .CLIMATE... Record Highs are forecast Tuesday and possibly Wednesday Location Feb20 Record Feb21 Record Pittsburgh 68 (1891) 73 (1997) Zanesville 71 (1939) 72 (1997) Morgantown 70 (1994) 75 (1874) DuBois 61 (2016) 60 (1983) Wheeling 68 (1930/2016) 68 (1930) New Philadelphia 69 (1994) 66 (2017) && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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