Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 180521 AAC AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 121 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Rain chance will continue through much of the day. The risk will return again Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will stay warm through the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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First shortwave is east of the area, however trough axis remains situated over the southern reaches of my forecast area. Another wave is expected to move eastward overnight, reaching Western Pennsylvania around dawn. Will need to keep in the mention of showers or storms for the rest of the night on the southern flank of this wave. No real change in the atmosphere is expected as temperatures overnight remain warm and conditions humid. Main trough axis will slowly drift eastward this morning as a surface cold front moves across Lake Erie. With this area of large scale ascension still looming and with low level moisture continuing to feed into it, will need to keep PoPs in the vicinity of the upper level wave, mainly over the southeastern quadrant of the forecast area. Surface boundary looks to catch up to the exiting trough this afternoon, which will provide an additional eastward push of the moisture. To the west of the axis, a decrease in cloud cover is expected, as drier and cooler air drives to the southeast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Dry and cooler tonight. The next shortwave trough arrives Saturday afternoon. It appears another surface boundary will cross the area just ahead of the upper level energy, so would expect showers and storms to redevelop as the system passes through. Surface high builds in on Sunday as the flow aloft becomes zonal.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Broad high pressure will keep conditions dry Monday into Tuesday before another cold front brings a chance of rain back to the forecast for late Tuesday into Wednesday.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Weakening cold frontal convection is near KPIT as of 01z with an attendant cold front. As second area of low pressure along the front should allow it to buckle back northward over the next several hours, with showers redeveloping around KZZV and spreading NE from there. With ample rain continuing overnight, as well as an already damp boundary layer, stratus will become common overnight with nominal visibility restrictions. .Outlook... Restrictions are possible with another passing disturbance Saturday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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