Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271843 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 243 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A LATE TUESDAY COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED FOR MID WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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UPR RIDGING WL BRING DRY WEA TNGT. EVEN WITH DECOUPLING...WRM ADVCTN AND A DVLPG LLVL JET SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MORE LMTD TEMP DROP TNGT WITH LOWS 15 TO 20 DEG ABV THE SEASONAL AVG.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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LOW PRES IS PROGGED TO TRACK FM THE UPR GT LKS INTO ONTARIO TUE...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED CDFNT ADVNG ACRS THE GT LKS AND OH VLY RGN TUE AFTN AND EVE. MAINTAINED CAT POPS WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND OMEGA. SHEAR IS PROGGED TO INCR THRU THE DAY TUE...THOUGH INSTBY IS EXPD TO BE MINIMAL LMTG THE CHCS FOR TSTMS. MAINTAINED JUST A SLGT CHC OF TSTMS ALG THE CDFNT. SFC HIGH PRES IS EXPD TO GRDLY BLD IN WED INTO THU AS BROAD UPR TROFG SETS UP ACRS THE GT LKS AND OH VLY RGN. COOL AIR ALOFT SHOULD HELP PRODUCE SOME STRATOCU AS WELL. TUE TEMPS ARE EXPD TO AVG 15 TO 20 DEG ABV SEASONAL LVLS...WITH A RTN TO BLO AVG LVLS MID WK.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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MDLS HAVE BEEN IN GENL AGRMNT FOR THE LAST CPL OF DAYS IN DEPICTIONS OF HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROF DVLPMNT BY THE WEEKEND. THE SFC FRONT IS STILL TIMED FOR FRIDAY...PASSAGE OF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR FOR SNOW SHWRS AS FLOW UPSLOPES OFF THE LAKES. BY SATURDAY...COLD AIR DEPTH IS GFS PROJECTED TO BE SHALLOW ENOUGH TO TAPER POPS...WHILE ECMWF ROTATES A SHRTWV THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE TROF AXIS. THAT SCENARIO COULD PROLONG THE SNOW SHOWER OPPORTUNITY VIA A DEEPER MIXING LYR. FOR NOW...HAVE PERSISTED WITH THE POP TAPER AS PER WPC GUIDANCE. EITHER WAY...SUB AVG TEMPS WOULD CONT FOR THE WEEKEND.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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UPR HIGH PRES WL MAINTAIN VFR INTO TUESDAY...WHILE DVLP LOW OVR THE GREAT LAKES INITIATES A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING SLY SFC WIND. CONDITION DETERIORATION CAN BE EXPECTED LTR ON TUESDAY AS SHWRS DVLP WITH THE ADVN OF THAT LOWS ATTENDANT CDFNT ACRS OH. OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NGT THROUGH SATURDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NGT. MORE RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WL COME WITH A FRIDAY CDFNT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 07/15

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