Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 281643 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1243 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A series of crossing disturbances will keep showers in the forecast through the weekend with humid conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Shortwave producing showers and embedded thunderstorms moving northeast across region with bulk of rain now moving into and across the ridges. Second shortwave now moving into West Virginia with models differing on how far north and west thunderstorms will be able to fire this evening. Based on current placement of storms on radar and lack of low level instability due to morning rains, have adjusted highest POPs and QPF farther south and east. This still puts southeast ridges and portion of northern West Virginia in line for possible heavier rainfall in thunderstorms, but it appears bulk of stronger re-development may be east of the ridges late afternoon and evening. Will continue to monitor. Only a slight chance for showers along and north of I-80, with remainder of region seeing a slow decrease in showers through the night. No real change in airmass with humid conditions keeping overnight lows elevated.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Models continue to struggle with the placement and amount of the heaviest rainfall tonight. Some of the ops models appear to have convective feedback problems this evening and overnight as the surface low moves to the east and the trailing upper level trough swings through. It still looks that the best chance for heavier rainfall will be confined to the locations near the Mason- Dixon line this evening and possibly into early Friday morning. Additionally, convection coverage and strength remains in question due to all the cloud cover and rain prior to the passage of the low and aforementioned trough. The upper level system will exit the forecasting area Friday morning, decreasing POPs northwest to southeast across the region. Multiple shortwaves will cross the region Friday night and Saturday, keeping in shower and thunderstorm chances through the period. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A series of shortwaves moving through the weak trough over the eastern CONUS will support periodic rain chances and seasonal temperatures into Monday. A weak bubble of surface high pressure looks to bring warm temperatures with little chance for showers Tuesday and Wednesday. A modified Superblend was used for much of the extended period. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A slug of rain will move east northeast through the morning hours with the greatest impact at MGW where MVFR/IFR weather is forecast /mostly this evening/. This terminal has the highest confidence of all. For the remainder of the airports, confidence falls to medium where questions arise how far north will the rain shield get? Either way, possibility exists for scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm through the evening. IFR clouds should develop overnight due to rainfall today and increased low level moisture and light winds along the boundary. For now, included sub 1KFT cigs for PIT and MGW. The other terminals, MVFR stratocu was introduced. .OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Brief sub VFR restrictions are possible in showers and thunderstorms through Monday, however given duration and coverage nothing more than a CB or VCTS/ VCSH expected at this time. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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