Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 201459 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1059 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWER CHANCES WILL RESUME AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER THIS WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SW TROF EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY SWINGING AROUND THE SRN END OF LAKE MI SOUTH OF THE SFC NEARING LAKE HURON. MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION PRODUCING ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF TROF AXIS. THESE CLOUDS...REPLACED BY LOWER CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL KEEP TEMPS RELEGATED INTO THE 50S WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF SEEING SUNSHINE. RADAR RETURNS ARE QUITE NUMEROUS AT THIS HOUR...BUT ITS TRACKING LITTLE MORE THAN VIRGA AS DRY AIR FROM THE MID LEVELS DOWN ARE KEEPING ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. AN AXIS OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY MOVING INTO WV WILL PUSH ENE THROUGH THE RIDGES THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE MID- LEVEL DEFORMATION...BUT WITH CURRENT DEW POINT SPREADS UP TO 12F...SATURATION OF THE LOW LEVELS WILL TAKE SOME TIME. BY 00Z ALL OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE THE SW TROF AXIS THROUGH ERN OH WITH RAIN SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WNW. DEEPER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND BETTER FORCING WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOW NEAR LAKE ERIE...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE CATEGORICAL POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO OUTRUN THE TROF AXIS ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS NRN WV. WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM THE LIKELY POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. TAX
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A JET STREAK MOVG THROUGH THE WRN FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFT UPR TROF IS PROGGED TO CARVE A CUTOFF LOW OVR THE UPR OH VALLEY REGION BY LATE TUESDAY. COOLING MID LVLS WITH THAT SYSTEM WL LOWER CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS AND SPPRT SHWR ACTIVITY THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH PARTICULAR EMPHASIS OVR UPSLOPE REGIONS TO THE N AND E OF PITTSBURGH. BY THURSDAY...MDL WORLD PROJECTS SUFFICIENT COASTAL DVLPMNT/DEEPENING TO DIMINISH POPS OVR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SHRTWV/VORT PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE WRN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS MINIMAL...SO HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLGT POPS OVR THE RIDGES THROUGH THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... EWD PROGRESS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPR LOW WITH EXPANDING RIDGE OVR THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD ENSURE A GENLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CLOSE TO THE WEEK. TWEAKED WPC NMBRS WERE USED TO REPRESENT THE LONG TERM PD. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDS ARE EXPD WITH INCRG AC THRU THIS AFTN AHD OF AN APCHG SHRTWV. THIS SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS EXPD TO BRING MVFR CONDS AND INCRG SHWR CHCS THIS EVE AND OVRNGT. FKL/DUJ COULD ALSO SEE IFR CIGS LT TNGT AS LLVL MOISTURE POOLS. .AVIATION /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL THRU MID WK AS AN UPR LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE RGN. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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