Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 131039 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 539 AM EST Fri Jan 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A crossing disturbance will spread a wintry mix of precipitation over the region on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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The only changes needed for the predawn update were downward adjustments to cloud cover. Previous... Building high pressure and resultant veering and weakening of boundary layer flow should support cloud diminishment today. As cold advection in the wake of the aforementioned front will be compromised via zonal flow aloft, temperature very near the seasonal average is anticipated. Few changes were made to this portion of the forecast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... The next-in-series of shortwaves in zonal flow is projected for a Friday night approach, and Saturday passage. That system is expected to spread a wintry mix, highlighted by freezing rain, along the aforementioned frontal boundary, which will stall, then develop toward the I 70 corridor as a warm front with the advance of the disturbance. Model trends continue to focus precip on areas south of Pittsburgh, especially the I 70 corridor and ridge zones. Ice accumulation through these areas may be problematic, so a freezing rain advisory was issued for those areas. Passage of that shortwave on Saturday eve will diminish any precip and pull the front southward again. Temperature very near the average is again anticipated for Saturday night and Sunday as surface high pressure settles over the region under zonal flow aloft. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A deeper trough is progged to develop over the plains for the start of the new week. Warmer weather under the resulting rising heights over the Upper Ohio Region may be preceded by some additional freezing rain in the predawn of Monday. That HWO mention was maintained. Warmer weather is then expected to dominate once again until the trough ejects and drags a front toward the area late in the period. Superblend guidance represented this scenario well and was deviated from only in POP timing. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Expecting general mvfr conditions at all ports through dawn. There may be brief periods of ifr cigs, particularly at FKL and DUJ. The low clouds will begin to dissipate during the post-dawn hours of the morning, and all ports should return to vfr conditions by afternoon. The exception will be fkl and duj which will remain under a stratocu deck throughout the day. West-northwest winds will turn to the north-northeast as the day progresses. .OUTLOOK... Periodic restrictions are expected through early next week as a series of disturbances cross the region. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Freezing Rain Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday FOR MDZ001. OH...Freezing Rain Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Saturday FOR OHZ057>059-068-069. PA...Freezing Rain Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Saturday FOR PAZ031-075. Freezing Rain Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday FOR PAZ074-076. WV...Freezing Rain Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Saturday FOR WVZ004-012-021-509. Freezing Rain Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday FOR WVZ510>514. && $$ 15/22

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