Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS -- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KPBZ 201102
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
702 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017
There will be a chance of rain this afternoon and tonight as cold
front crosses the region. Near or below normal temperatures are
expected until late this week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --7am update: Made additional minor changes to pops/weather type
through the morning hours. Have removed any mention of snow in
the forecast over the next couple of hours as temperatures aloft
are too warm to support any snow reaching the surface.
Sleet/graupel have been reported in Cleveland, and have also
added sleet/freezing rain to the forecast. However, the
Cleveland 88D and Columbus TDWR have both shown diminishing
trends in radar coverage as echoes move south of Cleveland. It
appears that the bulk of precipitation may end up remaining west
of our Ohio counties.
550 AM UPDATE:
Area of showers now moving into northwestern
Ohio is expected to diminish as it continues east but based on
latest trends and guidance opted to include a slight chance of
precipitation as it looks as though showers may hold together
longer than previously expected.
No other changes were needed.
Precipitation chances will increase this afternoon as a weak
front approaches the forecast area. Models show good continuity
with previous runs in regards to timing...with the front
beginning to cross early this evening.
The extent of instability remains in question, but there still
looks to be a chance of elevated convection through the evening
as the front crosses. Have included mention in latest forecast
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Models continue to show another weak shortwave on Tuesday but
have trended further south with this feature. As previously
mentioned, additional precip later on Tuesday will be mainly south
of Pittsburgh given the current positioning-prognosis of the
A better cold push across the immediate area will follow the
shortwave as the longwave pattern continues to amplify...with
dry conditions and temperatures well below normal Wednesday and
Wednesday night as the Ca airmass moves in out of the
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A building ridge is forecast to support moderating temperature
for the close of the week with only low precip chances expected
with a Friday warm front. Rain chances will be on the increase
by Sunday though as a midwestern trough develops toward the
Upper Ohio Region.
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The cloud blanket in the form of MVFR and low-end VFR stratocu
is expected to persist overnight, before increasing subsidence
begins to suppress the low cloudiness by early morning.
A brief period of VFR will be interrupted by deteriorating
conditions in rain late Monday afternoon and evening as a
shortwave trough crosses the region.
Restrictions are likely with the approach and passage of a Mon
night cold front, and with a reinforcing front later on Tuesday.