Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 201102 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 702 AM EDT Mon Mar 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... There will be a chance of rain this afternoon and tonight as cold front crosses the region. Near or below normal temperatures are expected until late this week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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7am update: Made additional minor changes to pops/weather type through the morning hours. Have removed any mention of snow in the forecast over the next couple of hours as temperatures aloft are too warm to support any snow reaching the surface. Sleet/graupel have been reported in Cleveland, and have also added sleet/freezing rain to the forecast. However, the Cleveland 88D and Columbus TDWR have both shown diminishing trends in radar coverage as echoes move south of Cleveland. It appears that the bulk of precipitation may end up remaining west of our Ohio counties. 550 AM UPDATE: Area of showers now moving into northwestern Ohio is expected to diminish as it continues east but based on latest trends and guidance opted to include a slight chance of precipitation as it looks as though showers may hold together longer than previously expected. No other changes were needed. Previous: Precipitation chances will increase this afternoon as a weak front approaches the forecast area. Models show good continuity with previous runs in regards to timing...with the front beginning to cross early this evening. The extent of instability remains in question, but there still looks to be a chance of elevated convection through the evening as the front crosses. Have included mention in latest forecast package.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Models continue to show another weak shortwave on Tuesday but have trended further south with this feature. As previously mentioned, additional precip later on Tuesday will be mainly south of Pittsburgh given the current positioning-prognosis of the frontal zone. A better cold push across the immediate area will follow the shortwave as the longwave pattern continues to amplify...with dry conditions and temperatures well below normal Wednesday and Wednesday night as the Ca airmass moves in out of the northwest. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A building ridge is forecast to support moderating temperature for the close of the week with only low precip chances expected with a Friday warm front. Rain chances will be on the increase by Sunday though as a midwestern trough develops toward the Upper Ohio Region. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The cloud blanket in the form of MVFR and low-end VFR stratocu is expected to persist overnight, before increasing subsidence begins to suppress the low cloudiness by early morning. A brief period of VFR will be interrupted by deteriorating conditions in rain late Monday afternoon and evening as a shortwave trough crosses the region. Outlook... Restrictions are likely with the approach and passage of a Mon night cold front, and with a reinforcing front later on Tuesday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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