Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 181018 AAA AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 518 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Snow will taper off this morning and temperatures will moderate during the day. The start of the work week will be warm and wet. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Shortwave will quickly exit the east coast this morning and zonal flow aloft will setup behind it. The colder air aloft over my area will slowly erode this morning, lingering over the higher elevations until late morning. Will need to keep in PoPs in the highest elevation through a portion of the morning hours, as the risk for orographic snow showers continues. Clouds will stubbornly hang on over the eastern half of the area with the slowly exiting cold pool aloft and its accompanying northwest flow. Clouds will erode from west to east, but it may take until late in the afternoon for all of the cloud cover to dissipate over the eastern half of the region. Temperatures will moderate today. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Continued the idea of slowing the onset of precipitation late tonight and Monday morning, as the intrusion of upper level lift is slowed and weakened by some minor ridging aloft. Rain will overspread the entire area Monday morning, moving northward along the surface warm front and rising upper level heights. By Monday evening, most of the area should be well into the warm sector and upper level heights will continue to slowly increase Monday night. This will require me to remove PoPs for much of the region Monday evening, with the exception of the far north, which will lie in close enough proximity to the surface boundary that a passing shower cannot be ruled out. By late Monday night, the warm sector will have spread across the entire region and the upper level ridge will have settled in, allowing for a dry forecast. Mainly dry forecast will continue through most of Tuesday with ridging aloft taking hold. A passing shower is possible across the north Tuesday morning, as a weak shortwave rides over top of the ridge, but only chance PoPs were indicated for this feature. Temperatures will push well above normal both Monday and Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... While the GFS and ECMWF have wavered on the timing for the cold front passage over the last few days, there is general consensus that this will happen late Wednesday into Thursday morning. This will bring the best chance for rain, but also an end to the very warm temperatures. The front will linger to the southeast, keeping a chance of showers in the forecast. Even after the cold front passes, temperatures should still remain above normal. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... IFR/MVFR restrictions through most of the morning hours. By midday, surface flow backing to the south will push drier air in and scatter out the cloud deck from south to north. VFR is expected for the latter part of the current TAF period. OUTLOOK...VFR prevails until Monday morning when precip with a lifting warm front clips the region. && .HYDROLOGY... Flooding continues on the Upper Monongahela, Ohio, and at Stillwater Creek. Precipitation tonight should not pose much of an issue beyond slowing the fall today. All points are forecast to be below flood stage tonight. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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