Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 221313
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
813 AM EST Wed Feb 22 2017
There will be a slight chance of light showers through the
morning as a weak disturbance crosses the area. Warm weather is
expected to continue until the passage of a late Friday night
and Saturday morning cold front.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --Made adjustments to PoPs based on current radar and hi-res
model trends. This led to an increase across the north where a
cluster of showers was moving across northern Ohio. Minor tweaks
to hourly temp/dewpoint otherwise. Showers should mostly
dissipate during the afternoon with dry weather anticipated
thereafter through most of tonight. A few showers may pop up
again across the south towards morning in increasing isentropic
Overall temperatures will be similar to recent days despite
starting off with warmer lows with increased cloud coverage and
slightly cooler temperatures aloft.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The longwave pattern will become more amplified through the
period with a surface low over the plains tracking northeast
across the great lakes. On Thursday warm air and moisture
advection will increase as troughing over the central CONUS
deepens. There will be a chance of showers and possibly a storm
or two with ample synoptic lift, however, did not include in the
forecast with a very slim CAPE profile and a better chance that
activity remains capped off by warmer air aloft. Temperatures
will be around 5 degrees or so warmer on average with increased
warm air advection. Latest consensus in for the warm front to
lift north across the region Friday morning. Friday should
largely be dry most of the day in the warm sector and
precipitation focused along and north of the boundary. Latest
guidance remains consistent with previous runs in forecast
record temperatures across the region.
Minimal change was need to the temperature forecast through the
period...with only minor adjustments made based off latest
Friday night temperatures will be very mild with cloud coverage
and increasing winds ahead of the approaching front keep in the
lower levels mixed. Record high mins are currently forecast.
Latest timing for cold frontal passage is Saturday morning.
Expect areawide rain and possibly a few thunderstorms as well
with gusty winds being the primary concern in the high shear low
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Broad troughing will be replaced by broad ridging by the end of
the period as a shortwave digs over the western CONUS. During
this time, several waves, moving through the upper level pattern
are progged for passage across the Ohio Valley. However, timing
and placement differs among the deterministic guidance. Thus,
have leaned heavily on the Superblend, which trends both PoPs
and temperatures upward from Sunday through Tuesday. At this
time, it appears temperatures will start near seasonal averages
and end above normal by Tuesday.
.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weakening cold front should result in lowering, but still VFR,
ceilings through the night as it crosses the area. A few
showers are possible but upper support is limited. Some upstream
observations suggest that enough low level moisture could move
in behind the dissipating front this morning leading to MVFR
ceilings from ZZV to FKL to DUJ. Elsewhere VFR looks like it
should prevail until late in this forecast period.
Light w-sw wind will continue through the period.
Warm, moist conditions may support occasional restrictions
Wednesday night through Thursday but the next chance for
widespread restrictions will be with the passage of a Friday
night/early Saturday cold front.
Record high temperatures for climate sites:
Wed Thu Fri
--------- -------- --------
PIT 70 (1922,30) 70 (1922) 70 (1875,1906)
ZZV 67 (1992) 64 (2000) 70 (1961)
MGW 70 (1980) 68 (1996) 75 (1975)
DUJ 60 (1983) 63 (1985) 60 (1985)
HLG 57 (1949) 62 (2000) 63 (2016)
PHD 73 (1997) 69 (1975) 66 (1985)