Area Forecast Discussion
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969 FXUS61 KPBZ 022330 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 630 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cloudy skies and near normal temperatures will continue through the weekend. The next widespread chance for rain will be on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Made tweaks to PoPs, pushing chance and likelies a little further south than mentioned in the previous discussion. The shortwave trough nearing the area is pushing a few bands of light snow northwest to southeast through the northern half of the forecast area and will creep into the Pittsburgh metro area and east to Greensburg. This light snow, mixing with rain or drizzle, is not expected to have a substantial impact to late evening travelers through the area. Previous discussion below... Another evening, another shortwave rounding the upper low across New England. This shortwave will cross over northern counties during the evening. Although this area of snow showers has been in the forecast for the last couple of days, several runs of the HRRR and RAP in the near term have shown a band of snow dropping farther to the south, across Lawrence, Butler, and Armstrong counties. Bringing likely pops farther to the south to account for this band was the biggest change in the first 24 hours of the forecast, with any accumulation expected to be less than a inch overnight. Did not go with anything higher than chance pops on Saturday north of Interstate 80 with only shallow moisture present. Overnight temperatures should be near normal around freezing with daytime temperatures slightly below normal in the mid to upper 30s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... With high pressure around on Saturday night, there should be a brief period of dry weather across the entire forecast area into Sunday morning. Split flow continues to result in a difficult precipitation forecast for Sunday afternoon and night. Have continued with chance pops everywhere, although Pittsburgh has the least chance of receiving any rain/snow with higher pops to both the north and south. Any precipitation will shift east by Monday, with high pressure once again bringing dry weather. Temperatures will remain near normal. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As low pressure moves northeast, precipitation will move into southern counties Monday night and everywhere Tuesday. The bulk of precipitation will move east by Tuesday night. Although precipitation is not expected to continue through the rest of the week, it`s hard to determine any particular time that will be dry, and have maintained low pops through the forecast. Timing of a strong cold front remains uncertain for late week, but at this point have gone with a high temperature forecast on Friday that keeps the entire region below freezing. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Most terminals will maintain VFR ceilings in the mean through midnight or so, although bands of snow showers may briefly drop flight conditions into MVFR range. Ceilings will float down into MVFR range overnight and mostly stay there through Saturday. Gusty winds will continue to slacken through the evening, with west winds under 10 knots pictured for Saturday. .OUTLOOK... Ceiling restrictions are likely through Saturday night in cold W-NW flow. Restrictions are possible late Sunday/Monday, and again Tuesday with low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.