Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 160558 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1258 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front will bring warmer temperatures Monday, with increasing rain chances Monday night and Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Have removed POPs from forecast until late afternoon as shortwave exits well southeast of region, with dry low levels under a mid deck. Have lowered min temperatures 1-2 degrees overnight based on current readings. Frontal boundary will begin to push north Monday with temperatures rising through the evening. Expect rain showers to slowly increase from north to south in the afternoon, but still chance POPs. Still possible for a brief period of sleet across the north as precip begins, but with a low probability have left out of grids for now. Temperatures will warm well into the 40s south, and reach near 40 north by evening.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Rain will increase tonight Tuesday with increasing shortwave support as a surface low tracks northeast over the Great Lakes. Rain chances will continue Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper trough crosses the area. Warm advection will result in temperatures climbing to average 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal levels.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Eastern CONUS ridging is progged to develop through the weekend as a deep trough moves across the Plains and Midwest, resulting in mainly dry and warm weather for the local area through the period. Temperatures are expected to average 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal levels using tweaked Superblend guidance numbers. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions should gradually deteriorate to MVFR through the day from S-N in warm, moist advection ahead of an approaching warm front. Further deterioration to IFR is expected by this evening as rain overspreads the area. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions are likely through Wednesday with crossing low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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