Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS -- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KPBZ 022330
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
630 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016
Cloudy skies and near normal temperatures will continue through
the weekend. The next widespread chance for rain will be on
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Made tweaks to PoPs, pushing chance and likelies a little further
south than mentioned in the previous discussion. The shortwave
trough nearing the area is pushing a few bands of light snow
northwest to southeast through the northern half of the forecast
area and will creep into the Pittsburgh metro area and east to
Greensburg. This light snow, mixing with rain or drizzle, is not
expected to have a substantial impact to late evening travelers
through the area.
Previous discussion below...
Another evening, another shortwave rounding the upper low across
New England. This shortwave will cross over northern counties
during the evening. Although this area of snow showers has been in
the forecast for the last couple of days, several runs of the HRRR
and RAP in the near term have shown a band of snow dropping
farther to the south, across Lawrence, Butler, and Armstrong
counties. Bringing likely pops farther to the south to account for
this band was the biggest change in the first 24 hours of the
forecast, with any accumulation expected to be less than a inch
overnight. Did not go with anything higher than chance pops on
Saturday north of Interstate 80 with only shallow moisture
present. Overnight temperatures should be near normal around
freezing with daytime temperatures slightly below normal in the
mid to upper 30s.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
With high pressure around on Saturday night, there should be a
brief period of dry weather across the entire forecast area into
Sunday morning. Split flow continues to result in a difficult
precipitation forecast for Sunday afternoon and night. Have
continued with chance pops everywhere, although Pittsburgh has the
least chance of receiving any rain/snow with higher pops to both
the north and south. Any precipitation will shift east by Monday,
with high pressure once again bringing dry weather. Temperatures
will remain near normal.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As low pressure moves northeast, precipitation will move into
southern counties Monday night and everywhere Tuesday. The bulk of
precipitation will move east by Tuesday night. Although
precipitation is not expected to continue through the rest of the
week, it`s hard to determine any particular time that will be dry,
and have maintained low pops through the forecast. Timing of a
strong cold front remains uncertain for late week, but at this
point have gone with a high temperature forecast on Friday that
keeps the entire region below freezing.
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Most terminals will maintain VFR ceilings in the mean through
midnight or so, although bands of snow showers may briefly drop
flight conditions into MVFR range. Ceilings will float down into
MVFR range overnight and mostly stay there through Saturday. Gusty
winds will continue to slacken through the evening, with west
winds under 10 knots pictured for Saturday.
Ceiling restrictions are likely through Saturday night in cold
W-NW flow. Restrictions are possible late Sunday/Monday, and
again Tuesday with low pressure.