Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 262049
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
449 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
Low pressure will bring rain to the region tonight and Thursday.
Dry and cool weather returns for Friday. Warmer but unsettled
weather is anticipated for the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pre-frontal precipitation continues to occur over the northern
zones this afternoon into the evening. Little wet-bulb effect has
resulted in light sleet mixing in with rain across some areas and
thus, weather grids include the aforementioned elements through
the early evening.
PoPs are forecast to progressively increase overnight as an
approaching low pressure system strengthens resulting from a
deepening upper trough across the Great Lakes. On Thursday, categorical
PoPs are placed over the north where sufficient lift and moisture
are expected to reside. The frontal passages is slated for
Thursday afternoon and thereafter sweep away the steady rain to
the east. Lingering precipitation over the higher terrain is then
expected due to cool northwest flow.
Temperatures will be slightly above normal through the period.
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cold advection behind the departing low pressure will be brief,
but shower chances should continue through Thursday night. Some
snow may mix in as well, especially north of I-80 and in the high
terrain. High pressure will settle over the Ohio Valley for Friday
with lingering cloud cover to likely hold temperatures down a
little. With the progressive upper level pattern, another system
is expected to approach late on Saturday with chances for showers
increasing by the afternoon. Warm advection ahead of this system
should allow for temperatures 5-10 degrees above seasonal
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The models are in relatively good agreement for the start of the
long term, with another shortwave expected to cross along a slow
moving boundary over the Ohio Valley on Sunday. After this time,
the models evolve the next low pressure system over the northern
Plain/Canadian border differently, so a blend of model guidance
was used. Overall, expect temperatures to remain at or just
slightly above seasonal averages through the period.
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Conditions are expected to remain VFR into the evening hours with
high-based ceilings and spotty light precipitation. Pockets of
sleet are possible at the terminals this afternoon. ESE winds will
strengthen with time as a low pressure system approaches. Ceilings
will fall with time, with MVFR conditions developing by morning at
most locations. Areas north of Pittsburgh will likely see IFR by
sunrise as the steadiest precipitation moves in. These
restrictions will persist through the end of the TAF.
.OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Restrictions may continue into Thursday evening, before VFR
returns by Friday. More restrictions are possible this weekend
with another front.