Area Forecast Discussion
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905 FXUS61 KPBZ 230149 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 949 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Scattered showers are possible especially east of Interstate 79 through Monday before drier and warmer weather returns through mid week.
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A shortwave rotating around an upper level low across northern VA should continue to result in scattered to numerous showers this evening. The showers are expected to gradually diminish later tonight as the shortwave exits and the upper low begins to move SE. Patchy fog is possible where rain fell earlier, though slowly diminishing cloud cover and winds around 5 kt could limit this to sheltered locations. Left mention out of the forecast at this time. Lows should be near seasonal levels.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper trough will gradually lift to the east, through late Tuesday, being replaced by building high pressure. Residual moisture and support from a shortwave rotating along the western edge of the trough will bring the regeneration of showers and some thunderstorms Monday afternoon, much like today. Generally confined this to counties east of I-79. With more sunshine anticipated west of I-79, near season temperatures were forecast. By Monday night, high pressure will be building overhead, giving way to mostly clear skies and warming temperatures, under southwesterly flow through, early Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Western CONUS troughing/Eastern CONUS ridging is forecast to develop with general west-southwest flow over the Upper Ohio for the latter half of the week. Warm, moist advection will support increasing, shortwave-dependent precip chances as the weekend approaches. With uncertainty in timing of individual shortwaves embedded within the flow, have stayed close to climo POPs, which is similar to a blend of model guidance. With building heights and warm advection, anticipate above average temperatures through the start of next weekend. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... An upper low across the region should continue to bring scattered showers early this evening. Any MVFR conditions in heavier showers now look to be away from ports. Patchy IFR is expected in fog overnight with lingering low level moisture, mainly where more significant showers fell sunday afternoon. VFR should return after 13z monday with diurnal cumulus. .OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Restrictions are possible by late week with an approaching trough. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.