Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 221738 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 137 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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UPPER LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...ALLOWING A HIGH TO BUILD IN...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MINOR TWEAKS TO THE NR TERM GRIDS BASED ON OBS AND RADAR FOR THE PRE DAWN UPDT. PREVIOUS DISC...MATURATION OF LOW PRES IS STILL MDL PROGGED OVR THE COAST BY DAYS END AND OVRALL SBSDNC WL GRADUALLY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVR MOST OF THE UPR OH VALLEY AREA...ALTHOUGH SLGT SHWR CHCS MAY LINGER INTO EVE OVR THE RIDGES WITH THE SHARPER UPSLOPE ASSISTANCE. COLD TEMPS WL LINGER THOUGH AS COLD...TO NEUTRAL ADVCTN CONTS ON THE REAR FLANK OF THE EXITING LOW. TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS WERE MASSAGED USING SREF MEANS AND BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHRTWV RIDGING IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS RMNG PCPN CHCS TNGT...AND INTO FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY DEPICTED THE APCH...AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHRTWV IN NW FLOW ON FRIDAY. GIVEN DEPICTIONS OF A LTD MID LVL MSTR FIELD...CAPPED LOW LVLS AFTR MID LVL WARMING...AND AN ABSENT PCPN SPPRTG OMEGA FIELD...HAVE DECIDED TO ELIMINATE THE ALREADY SLGT POP FORECAST IN FAVOR A STRENGTHENING DRY TREND. ANOTHER SUCH DISTURBANCE IS PROJECTED FOR A SATURDAY CROSSING...BUT THE RAIN POTENTIAL LKS EQUALLY SLIM GIVEN SIMILIAR LIMITATIONS AS FRIDAY AS WELL AS A MORE NWD TRACK OF THE LOW CNTR. SHORT TERM TEMPS FEATURE MODERATION TWD THE SEASONAL AVGS...FORECAST FOR WAS TWEAKED AGAIN USING BIAS CORRECTED GFS MOS AND SREF MEANS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL CONUS WL MOVE TO THE ERN CONUS THRU ERLY NXT WK KEEPING DRY WEA IN THE FCST. A WKNG TROF IS PROGGED FOR A MID WK PASSAGE AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E. SEASONALLY COOL WKEND TEMPS ARE EXP TO INCR TO ABV AVG LVLS BY ERLY NXT WK. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NTO TNGT WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. DRY AIR SHOULD ALLIOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AFT 04Z. CLEARING AT ZZV MAY BE EARLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WINDS MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FG AT A MINIMUM AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF ZZV TAF FOR NOW. .AVIATION /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ JSH/RLX

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