Area Forecast Discussion
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800 FXUS61 KPBZ 262145 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 545 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Rain is expected tonight and again Monday night into Tuesday as areas of low pressure cross the region. Dry weather and seasonal temperatures are expected by mid week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Low pressure near Chicago is progged to track to Southern Ontario by morning. Increasing shortwave support through the evening should continue to result in showers crossing the region. Meso analysis shows very little instability across our area, though with elevated shear levels gusty winds are possible in any storm that becomes organized through early evening. The low`s associated occluded front is progged for a light night passage, with decreasing shower chances thereafter. Shortwave ridging should return dry weather to the area by late morning. Temperatures are expected to average 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal levels.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... By Monday evening showers along with another low pressure system will begin to move in from the west, and another round of showers is forecast late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Showers will linger into Tuesday afternoon before high pressure brings cooler and drier air for Tuesday night and Wednesday. While the first 24 hours of the period will remain mild, values Tuesday night and Wednesday will be about 10 degrees cooler than the previous day. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A sprawling low pressure system will spread rain across much of the eastern United States. The ECMWF and GFS have come into better agreement than they were 24 hours ago, showing showers moving into the region Thursday night, continuing into Friday and Friday night. A stray shower could remain into Saturday before dry weather returns Saturday night and Sunday. Seasonable temperatures are expected through the extended forecast. && .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low pressure tracking across the OH valley/lower Great Lakes will result in 3 distinct periods of showers the remainder of the afternoon and tonight. VFR looks more likely to be maintained after the first wave...but as moisture increases in the lower levels deterioration to low MVFR is likely. Thunderstorms still remain a possibility, however, have not been included in TAFs at this time based on limited instability. Outlook... Restrictions are likely again Mon night/Tue with a crossing cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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