Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 210012 AAB AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 812 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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800PM UPDATE...ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT IS ENTERING THE EASTERN AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MY FA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT LOCATIONS AND LATEST HIRES FORECAST. TEMPS AND CLOUDS MODIFIED AS WELL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... FLOODING ISSUES CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNED AREAS DESPITE BATCH OF HEAVY RAIN HAS FINISHED AND MOVED EAST. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS DISPLAY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE PASSING SHORTWAVE. DESTABILIZATION IS CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE CLEARING IS OCCURRING...WITH HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE. SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES GENERATING A SHORTWAVE MAY PROGRESS EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. THUS...HIGH CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE EVENING TO WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS. CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND DISPLACEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH AND A QUASI- STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE FLOODING AS PWATS WILL QUICKLY SHOOT UP TO OVER TWO STANDARD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL AFTER THE BRIEF DECREASE TODAY. HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR WILL ALSO BE AROUND 30-40KTS SO SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES FOR NOW AS THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE MOST FAVORABLE DYNAMICS BOTH DAYS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM...GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDING WITH WPC THINKING FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING IN THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SLOWLY SHIFTING THE AXIS INTO OUR REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES AS WE SIT ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER TROF AXIS WOULD MEAN A CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND. TAX && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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TWO PERIODS WILL DISTURB A GENERAL VFR FORECAST. FIRST IN THE EARLY PORTION AS LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES THROUGH. SECOND IS THE LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT. WILL SEE VFR CU RETURN LATE THU MORNING. OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SEVERAL CROSSING DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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