Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 132135 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 535 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonable temperatures and dry weather are expected for most locations through Wednesday, although showers will be possible south and east of Morgantown Monday afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Made some minor tweaks to sky and temp/dewpoint fields for the late afternoon update. Main wording change was to deemphasize fog a bit overnight. Think it will be fairly patchy given the dewpoints in the 50s currently, which will make it fairly tough to achieve crossover temperatures overnight on a widespread basis. Forecast generally on track otherwise. Previous discussion... Moisture across the southeastern United States will filter north overnight, bringing clouds after midnight to eastern portions of the forecast area. A weak shortwave should set off some showers in the ridges late Monday morning into Monday afternoon. Synoptic and high-resolution 12Z model runs brought precipitation much farther to the west than their 00Z runs, but still unsure as to whether this was a fluke or the beginning of a trend. Did not make much of an expansion to chance pops, but included a broader area in slight chance pops to account for the latest runs. Temperatures should be seasonable.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An isolated shower could persist across the ridges Monday night and Tuesday, but otherwise dry conditions are expected with high pressure across the eastern Great Lakes. High and low temperatures will creep up a couple degrees each day. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... An unsettled pattern will keep rain in the forecast through the entire extended forecast. Added likely pops to the forecast Thursday with enough confidence in timing of precipitation from the NAEFS, keeping chance pops at other times. Despite the widespread cloud cover, temperatures should be a couple degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Building high pressure will ensure VFR this afternoon and evening. Included mention of early morning MVFR fog, however, development looks less favorable than recent mornings based on latest hydrolapse. Will have higher confidence later this afternoon after observing dewpoints during max heating. .OUTLOOK... Surface high pressure is forecast to support general VFR through early week with exceptions for peri-dawn fog. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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