Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 152316 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 716 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GENERALLY DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN OVER THE REGION IS WORKING TO EVISCERATE WHAT WAS ONCE A RATHER WIDE EXPANSE OF FRONTAL SHOWERS ADVANCING ACROSS OHIO. WHILE UPPER SUPPORT FOR LIFT ALONG THE FRONT IS RATHER ROBUST WITH A COMPACT VORT CORE...STRONG DIFFERENTIAL PVA...AND BROAD UPPER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION ASSOCIATED DIVERGENCE ALOFT...PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE PROFILES ARE JUST NOT IMPRESSIVE. IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY FROM PITTSBURGH NORTHWARD...BUT THE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL SEEM DESTINED TO BE MORE NOMINAL THAN MEANINGFUL. AS SUCH...POPS HAVE REMAINED UNCHANGED WITH QPF REMAINING LIGHT. POST-FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY COLD ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTH AS LAYER MOISTURE STARTS TO PEEL OFF TO THE EAST. LAKE ENHANCED STRATOCUMULUS WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TIME UNTIL THE FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY BY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DIURNAL MIXING TO START TO DECIMATE THE STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD FARTHER INLAND AND AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE. AS A RESULT...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL AS RESULT OF THE DREARY START...HOWEVER. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... GENLY ZONAL TO WNWLY H5 FLOW XPCD MID-WEEK WITH SFC HIPRES XPCD TO PROMOTE MODEST DRYING OF LOW-LVL AMS. SHRTWV TROF WILL CROSS THE RGN WED NGT-THU AND MAY INVIGORATE A FEW SHWRS MAINLY IN NRN ZONES THU MRNG. SUBSIDENCE AND RENEWED DRYING WILL FOSTER A LACK OF PCPN CHCS BY LATE THU AFTN AS HIPRES BUILDS AT THE SFC ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY CONSISTENT DURG THIS PD. MAXIMA WILL BE IN THE 60S...AND MINIMA WILL BE IN THE 40S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... DESPITE BROAD UPPER TROF IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A SFC HIGH WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY OOZES EAST THROUGH SAT WITH A FRONT MOVING IN BY SUN EVENING. STRONG AGREEMENT ACROSS GFS/ECMWF WITH REGARDS TO THE EARLY EVOLUTION AND STRUCTURE OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER ATTM. WILL CARRY CHC POPS ALONG THE FRONT WITH A GENERAL BLEND FOR TIMING PURPOSES. TAX && .AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR STRATUS. STRATUS WILL HANG ON FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY MORNING. DEEPER MOISTURE LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR IFR AT KFKL AND KDUJ LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT UNDER 10 KTS. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN GENL WITH PSBLTY OF RESTRICTIONS TUE NGT OWING TO VLLY FOG. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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