Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 231413 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1013 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Showers are possible again today, as slow moving upper level low leaves the East Coast. Dry weather will return on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Previous discussion still highlights the current and forecast atmospheric conditions. Only minor adjustments were made to this time frame - mainly to bump temperatures up a degree based on the latest hi res model guidance where we will see more sunshine. Previous... Upper low will pivot northeastward from the Mid-Atlantic and move over the Atlantic Ocean by late in the day. Models continue to show shortwaves rotating around the low, which will necessitate the inclusion of pops over the eastern half of the area. Highest pops will be confined to the ridges, where the deepest moisture will be located. Atmosphere destabilization looks like a good bet this afternoon, so have continued with the mention of thunder. Expect to see a wide range of temperatures today, from the cool and wet east to the dry and sunny west.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Surface high pressure will build in tonight, behind the exiting upper low. Any showers over the east, will be ending and skies will clear. With strengthening ridge and eastward moving surface high, area finally will see a dry day Tuesday with warmer temperatures. Next slow moving system will bring the risk for showers back into the area on Wednesday. Temperatures will remain warm on Wednesday as well. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Western CONUS troughing/Eastern CONUS ridging is forecast to develop with general west-southwest flow over the Upper Ohio for the latter half of the week. Warm, moist advection will support increasing, shortwave-dependent precip chances as the weekend approaches. With uncertainty in timing of individual shortwaves embedded within the flow, have stayed close to climo POPs, which is similar to a blend of model guidance. With building heights and warm advection, anticipate above average temperatures through the start of next weekend. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Building high pressure will ensure VFR for most ports for the remainder of the TAF period. Exceptions may be eastern terminals where scattered showers may again develop in vicinity this afternoon as deep low pressure exits eastward. Dry advection off the surface is expected to inhibit fog formation tonight for all but those eastern ports that receive rain today. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The next chance for restrictions will come with late week low pressure.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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