Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 251740 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1240 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will fall through the day as wind increases behind a cold front. Temperatures will be back to near seasonal averages by Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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With the cold front well east of the area, temperatures are beginning their descent back towards the seasonal range. Just behind the front temperatures dropped about 5-10 degrees and then have stabilized a bit as the sun appears in the dry slot. Further upstream, a solid patch of clouds and scattered showers can be found over central Ohio to Indiana. These will shift eastward this evening as the upper-level low approaches. Expecting shower chances to increase through the evening, per latest hi- res model guidance. Scattered rain showers will changeover to snow showers as temperatures continue to descend through the evening. In general, less than an inch is expected across northern counties and into the mountains. Little to no accumulation is expected elsewhere. Building high pressure will end precipitation chances overnight with the ridges and locations along and north of I-80 the last holdouts. Winds and associated gusts are increasing, in the enhanced cold advection. Wind in the highest elevations could approach Advisory criteria towards dusk. This will bear further monitoring. Sunday will feature more docile weather as high pressure at the surface builds in. This will slowly erode cloud cover, leaving much sunnier conditions. Temperatures Sunday will moderate to near normal values.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Minimal change made in the extended with broad southwesterly flow aloft progged through midweek. A weak disturbance may result in scattered light showers Monday afternoon, but better chances will follow midweek and again on Friday after a brief break with deeper moisture and multiple shortwaves cross the region. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Cold front and associated showers pushing east of the area, and strong westerly flow at the surface is taking hold. Winds will commonly gust 20-30kts this evening. Expecting little in the way of restrictions this afternoon as the increased mixing in the near-surface has raised ceilings on incoming stratocu to around 4kft. Scattered rain showers will transition to snow showers this evening, but coverage and intensity will be limited. MVFR CIGs are possible late tonight as the surface flow begins to weaken and ceilings lower. This will especially be true for FKL/DUJ where downlake moisture may be more prevalent. .OUTLOOK... Occasional restrictions are again possible as the unsettled weather pattern is maintained for the first half of the week.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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