Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 171041 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 541 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A warm front will lift north across the area with occasional rain expected today. A crossing cold front will keep shower chances through Wednesday before high pressure returns dry weather for Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A warm front continues to lift north across the area as low pressure tracks from the Midwest to the Lower Great Lakes. Periods of rain are expected with the associated ascent, low level jet placement and available moisture this morning. The front should be N of the area this afternoon, though additional shortwave support and the approach of the low`s associated cold front should maintain high chance to likely POPs for more off and on showery precip. Highs are expected to be around 20 degrees above seasonal levels.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Shower chances should continue tonight and Wednesday as the surface low`s associated cold front passes, and subsequent upper troughing crosses the area. The rain could mix with snow in cold advection Wed especially N of I 80 and in the ridges, though no accumulation is expected. Building high pressure should result in a return of dry weather to the forecast Wednesday night and Thursday. Temperatures should cool behind the front, but are still expected to average around 10 degrees above seasonal levels by mid week. A deep upper trough across the Plains is progged to advance NEWD Thursday night and Friday, and is expected to be situated from the Upper Midwest to the OH Valley region by Friday. With decent model agreement on deep layer moisture, ascent and upper support increased POPs to likely for rain. Temperatures should continue to average around 15 degrees above seasonal levels to end the week. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The upper trough should slowly exit the region through Saturday with decreasing rain chances. Unsettled and relatively warm weather is expected through the rest of the period as operational and ensemble model progs indicate the development of a closed low advancing from the Southern Plains to the Ohio Valley region from Sunday through early next week. Tweaked Superblend guidance output was used for much of the period to depict the general trends and smooth out operation model differences. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Remaining ports with MVFR conditions will deteriorate to IFR conditions or worse this morning, as an area of low pressure spreads rain and lowers ceilings across all terminals. A period of LLWS is expected as a low level jet works across the region above a weak inversion. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions are likely through Wednesday with crossing low pressure. Thereafter, expect general VFR through early Friday.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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