Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 161154 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 754 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... After a cool start to the week, building high pressure will result in dry and gradually warming weather through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... The combination of satellite/radar data this morning shows two distinct bands of light showers across the area. The first, stretching from Lawrence County south through western Allegheny County, is actually emanating from Lake Pymatuning just north of the forecast area. The second, broader and slightly stronger band, is located near the Ohio/West Virginia border is from broader downlake moisture coming from Lake Erie. These showers will continue for a few more hours this morning while drifting southeast and dissipating downstream of their respective moisture sources. The upper-level trough axis will shift east of the area later today, effectively ending any lingering precipitation and working to erode remnant cloud cover. Temperatures are expected to average 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal levels in cold advection. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure is progged to build across much of the Ern CONUS through the period, resulting in dry weather. As decoupling occurs tonight, temperatures are expected to support areas of frost across the region. A frost advisory may be needed. Will include a Hazardous Weather Outlook mention for areas where the growing season has not already ended. After a cool start Tuesday morning, temperatures are expected to return to near seasonal levels. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Broad high pressure over much of the Ern CONUS will maintain dry and gradually warming weather through the period. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low end VFR, to occasional MVFR stratocu, will persist with an approaching upper trough and in cool NW flow off the Great Lakes. Building high pressure will diminish wind and return VFR as Monday aftn progresses. .Outlook... No widespread restrictions are expected under high pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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