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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260906
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
406 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
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SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING CHANGING TO SNOW. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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HAVE RECONFIGURED ADVISORIES TO EXTEND ENDING TIMES AS MODELS AGREE
ON SNOW CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN OHIO INTO
PITTSBURGH AND ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDGES INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
REGION WILL KEEP ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THE DAY. LONG DURATION
SNOW EVENT AND HAVE ADJUSTED TOTALS FOR AN EVENT OVER 36 HOURS.
THIS KEEPS 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA EASTERN OHIO TO
PITTSBURGH WITH 4 TO 6 ACROSS THE NORTH AND GARRETT COUNTY...WHERE
THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 7 AM TUESDAY. SOME TOTAL AMOUNTS
OVER 6 INCHES FROM EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO INDIANA AND THE LAUREL
RIDGES BUT AGAIN THIS IS FOR A LONG DURATION OVER 36 HOURS. SOUTH
OF I-70 AND INTO PRESTON AND TUCKER COUNTIES BEST ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL BE MIDDAY INTO THE EVENING AS COLDER AIR WORKS SOUTH.
AMOUNTS THIS REGION FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED...WITH BETTER
AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. A
WIDE RANGE OF WEATHER IN TUCKER COUNTY THIS MORNING WHERE 4 INCHES
HAS FALLEN AT CAANAN VALLEY WITH ONLY AN INCH OR TWO ELSEWHERE
WITH RAIN MAJORITY OF COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALL IN THE AFTERNOON. COLDER TONIGHT AS SYSTEM DEEPENS
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WRAPS COLDER AIR INTO THE UPPER OHO
VALLEY.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO
THE RIDGES TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS COLD AND DRY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES THURSDAY WITH A MIXED
BAG OF WINTRY PRECIP I-70 SOUTH AND ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE NORTH.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE SPEED
IN WHICH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLIPPER CROSSES THE REGION. THE MOST
RECENT RUN OF THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE FASTEST...SO OPTED TO STAY
CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS WOULD KEEP
PRECIP INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY WITH NW FLOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT MORE AT THE SURFACE...MAKING IT HARD TO PUT
ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. WILL MAINTAIN AN
OVERALL COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS
OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WPC FORECAST VALUES.
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&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN SNOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SAVE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WV
NEAR KMGW WHERE THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW HAS YET TO OCCUR. MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS
AFTER DAYBREAK...AS ENERGY WITH THE UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS TO THE
COAST. THAT BEING SAID...AN AREA OF WRAP-AROUND SNOW MAY BRING VSBYS
BACK DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS IT PIVOTS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND THE TAF SITES. FOR NOW...WILL NOT GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH THE
TIMING OF ANY TEMPO CONDITIONS BUT WILL HOLD ONTO PREVAILING IFR
UNTIL 21Z OR SO.

E-NE WIND WILL REMAIN UNDER 10KTS OVERNIGHT...GRADUALLY BACKING
TOWARD THE W-NW AS THE LOW DEPARTS. WIND GUSTS TO 15KTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. NEXT WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ001.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ020-
     021-029.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ007>009-
     013>016-022-023-073-074-076.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ001>003.
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&&

$$