Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 060125 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 825 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME HIGHER CLOUDS WILL WORK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THEY SHOULD LARGELY NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO OBSCURE MUCH OF THE SKY. THE CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID TEMPERATURE FALLOFFS. HOWEVER...WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT...SOME SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS...COMBINED WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS...SHOULD PUT A FLOOR UNDER TEMPERATURES AT THAT POINT. THUS...GENERALLY-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND DRIVE SATURDAY TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMALS...I.E. AROUND...OR A CPL DEGREES ABOVE...THE 40F MARK UNTIL PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE BY EVE. THAT PASSAGE IS PROGGED TO BE PCPN-FREE WITH A LACK OF ASCENT AND MOISTURE. RIDGING BETWEEN UPR MS VALLEY AND SERN U.S. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT A DRY SUNDAY WITH FURTHER...ALBEIT MINOR... MODERATION OF TEMPERATURE. THE UPR MS LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVR THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...HENCE AMPLIFYING THE SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW OVR THE UPR OH ON MONDAY. CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE IMPROVED MOISTURE AND ASCENT FIELDS WERE THUS ADDED TO IMPROVE THE FORECAST ABOVE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE...BUT A MARGINAL TEMP PROFILE AND WARM BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE WARM ADVECTION ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THAT SYSTEM SHOULD COMPROMISE SNOW POTENTIAL AND PRECLUDE SERIOUS ACCUMULATION.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS GFS/ECMWF FORECAST TO CUTOFF AND DEVELOP EASTWARD BEFORE FILLING/PHASING INTO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BY MIDWEEK. NEVERTHELESS...UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED OVR THE GREAT LAKES/UPR OHIO REGION FOR THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. SUB-AVG TEMPS AND PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWER CHANCES MAY BE ANTICIPATED FOR THE PERIOD...WITH FOCUS TOWARD THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND RIDGES AS THE WORK WEEK DRAWS TO A CLOSE. THE LONG TERM WAS CONSTRUCTED USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERNIGHT BEFORE VACATING MID-DAY ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS GRAZES THE REGION. VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY MORNING...AND MAY GUST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A LOWER-LEVEL DECK 4-5KFT EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ARE ADVECTED NEWD AT H85. AN EARLIER-THAN-FORECASTED ARRIVAL TIME FOR THIS LOWER CLOUD LAYER IS POSSIBLE...BUT ANY CIGS WILL REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH EXCEPTION OF KFKL/KDUJ /WHERE CIGS MAY FALL TO 2.5 KFT/MVFR BY MORNING/. ANY MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT AND COULD PERSIST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE REGIONAL WEATHER. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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