Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 081545 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1145 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... REMNANTS OF THE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM OVER WESTERN OHIO. BASED ON THE MOST RECENT HRRR DATA...THIS LOOKS TO BE WHERE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE SHORTWAVE/FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION. THE BEST TIMING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BASED ON THE HI RES MODELS AND THE NAM SUGGEST AS EARLY AS 1-2PM. WHILE SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...THERE ARE CONCERNS THAT THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. STILL...WITH SUCH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EVEN MODEST CAPE SHOULD SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CONDITIONS AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON AND HIGHLIGHT WIND AS THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD NOT BE RULED OUT. PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE 1.50-1.75 RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE. ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. CONSIDERING ITS LATER TIMING...DO NOT EXPECT THERE TO BE AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE WITH IT...BUT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... INSTABILITY WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH TROUGHING OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO REGAIN CONTROL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS WITH DRYING EXPECTED. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS THURS AND FRI COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN AVERAGE AS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SFC HIGH GETS SQUEEZED OUT OF THE AREA SAT AS A WEAK AND RELATIVELY DRY FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACHES FOR SUN. MODELS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME CONVERGING ON A SINGLE SOLN NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THEY DO DEPICT THE FRONT REINFORCING THE BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. COOLER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO SEEP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST UNDER THIS REGIME...WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE TROF. TRENDED TEMPS A BIT LOWER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AND CONTINUED WITH LESS DETERMINISTIC POPS...ORIENTING HIGHER CHC POPS ALONG THE FRONT. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... PTCHY MVFR SC WL CONT THIS MRNG BEFORE AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. AN MCS ACRS OH SHOULD CONT TO WKN PER RECENT VIL LOOPS AND STLT TRENDS. EXP REDEVELOPMENT OF A BKN LN OF TSTMS LT THIS MRNG INTO THE AFTN AS A CDFNT ADVNS ACRS THE RGN...WITH A PD OF AT LEAST MVFR RSTRNS AND GUSTY WNDS. EXP A LT AFTN/EVE FROPA WITH GENL VFR CONDS TO FOLLOW. .OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... RSTRNS ARE PSBL IN SCT TSTMS WED WITH A CROSSING DISTURBANCE. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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