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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 171831
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
231 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will result in dry weather and a warming trend
through the end of the week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Clear skies tonight as high pressure starts to slide off to the
east. Only question tonight is overnight temperatures and thus
frost potential. The air mass is undergoing some
warming/moderation today, with 925mb temperatures warming to
9-10C by tonight. Also, some modest overnight mixing is
indicated at this level which will help to keep the inversion
from becoming too deep, even though it may be a bit sharper than
last night. Ended up going with low temperatures cooler than
most guidance given recent trends, but think above factors will
keep frost from becoming too widespread, and thus will hold off
on any frost headlines for now. Will include patchy frost in
some areas and monitor trends. The SW corner of PA and north
central WV seem to be most favored for frost at this time,
outside of the counties where the growing season has already
ended.
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.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Dry weather continues through this period as high pressure
remains in control at the surface. 500 mb heights will rise
through Wednesday, but a shortwave passing across the northern
Great Lakes will knock them down temporarily Thursday. Despite
this, the surface low will remain well north, towards Hudson
Bay, and thus the dry forecast is maintained. Temperatures will
rise back above normal levels, reaching around 70 once again by
Thursday.
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.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Mid-level heights build once again Friday, with the ridge
persisting through the weekend. This leads to a continuation of
the dry and warm pattern. The next chance of rain arrives Sunday
night/Monday with a cold front. A troughing pattern may then set
up by Tuesday with continued shower chances and temperatures
around normal, if not lower than that.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR is expected through the TAF period under high pressure. Any
light surface flow from the southwest this afternoon/evening
will subside after sunset.

.Outlook...
No widespread restrictions expected under high pressure.
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&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$