Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 291613 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1213 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WITH NOON UPDATE...MADE ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO SKY COVER FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. CIRRUS SHIELD ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS SLOWLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY LOWER IN THOSE LOCATIONS. STILL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. PUSHING THE BOUNDARY WILL BE A CLOSED 50H LOW WHICH MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY MORNING INTO NORTHWEST PA TUESDAY EVENING. MODELS ARE PRODUCING SOME QPF ALONG THE BOUNDARY...BUT DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. ADDITIONALLY...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF LOW CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHC POPS TUESDAY AFT/EVE. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A SHOWER COULD POP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING 50H LOW MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO DEVELOP A SHOWER OR TWO. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING...SO FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE DRY AND WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FIRST REAL SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A MUCH NEEDED SHOT AT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EVENTUALLY COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CUMULUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ANOTHER POSSIBILITY FOR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE NXT CHC FOR WDSPRD RSTRNS WL RTN WITH A FRI CDFNT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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