Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 280407 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1207 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm temperatures with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances are expected through the weekend, with dry weather returning by Memorial Day afternoon. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Dry weather is expected tonight under east coast ridging. The ridge is expected to persist today, with the local area on the nw periphery of the ridge. A few showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon as convective temperatures are reached, though a lack of shortwave support should help limit coverage to isolated for most areas. Temperatures should continue to average 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Any isolated showers/storms should quickly dissipate this evening as conditions stabilize. A trough advancing out of the midwest should approach the region Sunday as the ridge shifts east. Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to continue until the trough crosses sometime Monday. Temperatures are expected to continue to average 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure across the eastern United States should allow for dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front should cross the region Thursday into Friday, with models still differing on how quickly the front will approach the area. Wednesday appears to be the warmest day in the period, although the entire extended forecast will continue to have above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF period, but there are a couple of potential snags. Persistence, and the fact that overnight low temperatures are forecast to come in above crossover values, leads to fog being left out of the forecast for now. DUJ is a potential exception given that fog occurred this morning. There is also still a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm at any one location that could provide a brief visibility restriction, but chances remain too low for inclusion. .OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Restriction chances in afternoon/evening convection will continue through the holiday weekend. Conditions should be dry Tuesday and Wednesday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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