Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 171831 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 231 PM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will result in dry weather and a warming trend through the end of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Clear skies tonight as high pressure starts to slide off to the east. Only question tonight is overnight temperatures and thus frost potential. The air mass is undergoing some warming/moderation today, with 925mb temperatures warming to 9-10C by tonight. Also, some modest overnight mixing is indicated at this level which will help to keep the inversion from becoming too deep, even though it may be a bit sharper than last night. Ended up going with low temperatures cooler than most guidance given recent trends, but think above factors will keep frost from becoming too widespread, and thus will hold off on any frost headlines for now. Will include patchy frost in some areas and monitor trends. The SW corner of PA and north central WV seem to be most favored for frost at this time, outside of the counties where the growing season has already ended.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Dry weather continues through this period as high pressure remains in control at the surface. 500 mb heights will rise through Wednesday, but a shortwave passing across the northern Great Lakes will knock them down temporarily Thursday. Despite this, the surface low will remain well north, towards Hudson Bay, and thus the dry forecast is maintained. Temperatures will rise back above normal levels, reaching around 70 once again by Thursday.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Mid-level heights build once again Friday, with the ridge persisting through the weekend. This leads to a continuation of the dry and warm pattern. The next chance of rain arrives Sunday night/Monday with a cold front. A troughing pattern may then set up by Tuesday with continued shower chances and temperatures around normal, if not lower than that.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR is expected through the TAF period under high pressure. Any light surface flow from the southwest this afternoon/evening will subside after sunset. .Outlook... No widespread restrictions expected under high pressure.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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