Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 191142 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 742 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected through the morning as a cold front moves through. Less humid and cooler weather is forecast for much of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A line of showers associated with the cold front is moving through western PA and northern WV. This will take until late morning for it to vacate the higher terrain. Afterwards, a brief break in the wet weather before pop up showers and storms develop in afternoon with passing of an upper level system. We do not foresee storms attaining strong to severe levels due to the lack of surface instability which will be in place. Clouds hang tough through morning hours in PA and western MD. For eastern Ohio, look for clearing to take place by mid morning and to fill in with cumulus clouds by early afternoon once convective temps are realized.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... With a general west/northwest flow through the period, precipitation chances will be predicated on the timing and location of shortwaves that swing through the progressive flow. Models still finding it hard to come to a consensus on the timing of these waves, but we may see a break on Tuesday, as weak ridging aloft develops ahead of the next shortwave trough. This forecast is shadowed by low confidence, as the Tuesday night shortwave is following a different path, depending on which model is observed. The NAM wants to develop a surface reflection and cold front beneath this wave, while the GFS is showing the wave spinning northward, with little to no activity across the area. Height rises and surface high pressure could provide a generally dry forecast on Wednesday, but this too will be dependent on what Tuesday night`s shortwave does. Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected through the period. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The progressive flow will make any long term forecast difficult. After a continued break from the humidity on Thursday, models are indicating an increase in moisture by the end of the week and into the weekend. This will mean the risk for showers and storms return, for at least Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Brief IFR conditions are expected with the batch of showers moving through the region, however MVFR is the dominant category. Conditions improve from west to east after 14Z with VFR returning. It may take until 17Z for DUJ to see cigs above 3K. After a short period of a clear sky, VFR cumulus will develop. Scattered showers are possible this afternoon into early evening /22Z-01Z/. Once the sunset sets look for VFR to return region wide unless an airport experiences a brief shower. .Outlook... Brief restrictions are possible through mid week as an upper trough slides over the region.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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