-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 081545
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1145 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REMNANTS OF THE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM OVER WESTERN OHIO. BASED
ON THE MOST RECENT HRRR DATA...THIS LOOKS TO BE WHERE FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE SHORTWAVE/FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION. THE BEST TIMING FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BASED ON THE HI RES MODELS AND THE NAM SUGGEST AS
EARLY AS 1-2PM. WHILE SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS...THERE ARE CONCERNS THAT THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. STILL...WITH SUCH STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...EVEN MODEST CAPE SHOULD SUPPORT SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CONDITIONS AS WE GO
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND HIGHLIGHT WIND AS THE PRIMARY
THREAT...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD NOT BE RULED OUT. PWAT
VALUES WILL ALSO BE IN THE 1.50-1.75 RANGE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE
POSSIBLE.

ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. CONSIDERING ITS LATER TIMING...DO NOT
EXPECT THERE TO BE AS MUCH OF A THREAT FOR SEVERE WITH IT...BUT
WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
INSTABILITY WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT
WITH TROUGHING OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO REGAIN CONTROL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES WEDS NIGHT
INTO THURS WITH DRYING EXPECTED. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD TOP OUT
NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS THURS
AND FRI COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN AVERAGE AS MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH GETS SQUEEZED OUT OF THE AREA SAT AS A WEAK AND
RELATIVELY DRY FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
APPROACHES FOR SUN. MODELS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME CONVERGING ON A
SINGLE SOLN NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THEY DO DEPICT THE FRONT
REINFORCING THE BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. COOLER AIR
SHOULD BEGIN TO SEEP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST UNDER THIS
REGIME...WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH THE TROF.
TRENDED TEMPS A BIT LOWER HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AND
CONTINUED WITH LESS DETERMINISTIC POPS...ORIENTING HIGHER CHC POPS
ALONG THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PTCHY MVFR SC WL CONT THIS MRNG BEFORE AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. AN
MCS ACRS OH SHOULD CONT TO WKN PER RECENT VIL LOOPS AND STLT
TRENDS. EXP REDEVELOPMENT OF A BKN LN OF TSTMS LT THIS MRNG INTO
THE AFTN AS A CDFNT ADVNS ACRS THE RGN...WITH A PD OF AT LEAST
MVFR RSTRNS AND GUSTY WNDS. EXP A LT AFTN/EVE FROPA WITH GENL VFR
CONDS TO FOLLOW.

.OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE PSBL IN SCT TSTMS WED WITH A CROSSING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$