-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191142
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
742 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected through the
morning as a cold front moves through. Less humid and cooler
weather is forecast for much of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A line of showers associated with the cold front is moving
through western PA and northern WV. This will take until late
morning for it to vacate the higher terrain. Afterwards, a
brief break in the wet weather before pop up showers and storms
develop in afternoon with passing of an upper level system. We
do not foresee storms attaining strong to severe levels due to
the lack of surface instability which will be in place.

Clouds hang tough through morning hours in PA and western MD.
For eastern Ohio, look for clearing to take place by mid
morning and to fill in with cumulus clouds by early afternoon
once convective temps are realized.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
With a general west/northwest flow through the period,
precipitation chances will be predicated on the timing and
location of shortwaves that swing through the progressive flow.
Models still finding it hard to come to a consensus on the
timing of these waves, but we may see a break on Tuesday, as
weak ridging aloft develops ahead of the next shortwave trough.
This forecast is shadowed by low confidence, as the Tuesday
night shortwave is following a different path, depending on
which model is observed. The NAM wants to develop a surface
reflection and cold front beneath this wave, while the GFS is
showing the wave spinning northward, with little to no activity
across the area. Height rises and surface high pressure could
provide a generally dry forecast on Wednesday, but this too will
be dependent on what Tuesday night`s shortwave does.

Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected through
the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The progressive flow will make any long term forecast difficult.
After a continued break from the humidity on Thursday, models
are indicating an increase in moisture by the end of the week
and into the weekend. This will mean the risk for showers and
storms return, for at least Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Brief IFR conditions are expected with the batch of showers
moving through the region, however MVFR is the dominant
category. Conditions improve from west to east after 14Z with
VFR returning. It may take until 17Z for DUJ to see cigs above
3K. After a short period of a clear sky, VFR cumulus will
develop. Scattered showers are possible this afternoon into
early evening /22Z-01Z/. Once the sunset sets look for VFR to
return region wide unless an airport experiences a brief
shower.

.Outlook...
Brief restrictions are possible through mid week as an upper
trough slides over the region.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$