Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 290057 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
857 PM EDT Sun Aug 28 2016
Thunderstorm chances will continue through the evening as a weak
boundary crosses the region. Warm but less humid conditions will
be introduced under building high pressure through midweek.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Line of storms and heavy rain continues to slowly drift to the
south and east. Needed to make major changes to the evening hours
in line with the latest radar trends and hires model guidance.
Expect the activity to be gone later tonight. Temperatures have
been updated with a blend of hires guidance.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Newest model guidance pushes the aforementioned boundary south of
the region by Monday afternoon as reinforcing shortwaves help
deepen a trough over the Northeast U.S. through midweek. The surface
front may continue to provide focus for diurnally- enhanced
convection over the mountains in WV, but building surface high
under northwest flow should suppress precip by Tuesday. A second
and more notable boundary, as far as temperatures change, will
approach on Wednesday. At this time, it appears that instability
and moisture will be rather meager with this fronts passage so
very low pops were kept, based on a blend of guidance and timing
differences through Wednesday. Temperatures should moderate to
near normal with northwest flow/cool advection by Wednesday.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Troughing over the eastern CONUS will result in cooler
temperatures the remainder of the week before ridging builds back
in this weekend. Dry conditions are forecast under dry
northwesterly flow and ridging later in the period.
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms are firing along and ahead of a weak
cold front which is sinking south through the area. A highly
unstable airmass is in place in front of it, and numerous outflow
boundaries are also providing support for upward motion. The
result is many slow-moving and heavy thunderstorms. Have IFR
TEMPOS at several sites to account for this. These will plague
most terminals through 03Z or so, before the loss of daytime
heating helps to decrease coverage and intensity significantly.
Areas of MVFR/IFR fog are then expected to develop overnight,
especially in areas that received rain. Fog will lift by 13Z on
Monday, with VFR conditions expected by midday areawide. Still
could see an isolated storm in the MGW area Monday afternoon, but
too early to include.
.OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Restrictions are possible with another cold front on Wednesday.