Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 210722 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 322 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Hot temperatures are expected today, but humidity will be tolerable. A more steamy airmass is forecast for Friday and the weekend, along with periodic thunderstorm chances.
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Surface high pressure will slide to our south during the day. 500 mb heights will reach their peak during the day, and with still low dewpoints and dry soil, today will likely feature the highest temperatures out of the next several days. The difference in later periods will be higher dewpoints, resulting in higher heat index/apparent temperature values than today. Given the pattern and favorable antecedent conditions, kept the idea of temperatures higher than most models would suggest. Tonight, an approaching shortwave will start the process of locally mitigating the upper ridge. Expect at least a few showers and thunderstorms to reach the forecast area prior to sunrise, although the initially dry airmass may hinder the southward progress of rain. PoPs may need to be lowered in subsequent updates. Kept low temperatures on the warm side given slow cloud increase and better mixing than tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A shortwave is progged to approach and cross the region late Thursday night through Friday in northwest flow aloft, resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms with it`s passage. Instability and shear parameters appear sufficient for a few strong storms, and the SPC marginal risk over the area seems reasonable. Will hold off on an HWO mention for now with uncertainty in the details. Upper ridging is progged to build in across the region from the central CONUS Saturday, with areas north of I 70 expected to stay capped. Diurnally driven instability/thunderstorms are possible to the south, though the ridging should limit the potential. Building heat and humidity is also expected through the weekend, with many locations reaching 90 or above, with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The ridge is expected to remain across the region through the rest of the weekend, though sufficient instability could result in diurnally driven thunderstorms. The ridge should break down by early next week with better shower/thunderstorm chances associated with a crossing shortwave/surface front. Ridging is progged to redevelop by mid week. Hot and humid conditions should diminish by early next week, though temperatures should still remain a few degrees above seasonal levels. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions and light winds are expected through the TAF period. Not much fog is expected as crossover temperatures should not be achieved in most cases. Some clouds will begin to invade from the north after 00Z as a disturbance approaches. A shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out at FKL or DUJ by 06Z but chances are too low to include in this issuance. .OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Scattered restrictions in thunderstorms are possible Friday through Monday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.