Area Forecast Discussion
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393 FXUS61 KPBZ 262334 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 734 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm temperatures with shower and thunderstorm chances are expected through the holiday weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 540pm update...showers had developed ahead of weak shortwave, but are finding it hard to maintain structure as warm air aloft is providing a cap. With sunset, expect any lingering activity to dissipate. Another shortwave is expected to cross Ohio later this evening and then Western Pennsylvania overnight. Latest models are showing some scattered development with this energy, however 18z models seem to be overdoing precipitation with this feature. Looking closer at latest mesoanalysis from SPC, the most unstable air remains well to our southwest where this afternoon`s MCS set it course toward. Additionally, atmospheric trends are showing a slow stabilization over the area, which will only be increased with dusk. Have limited pop coverage overnight and kept them in the slight chance range. Also adjusted cloud cover and modified temperatures with the latest hires numbers. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Minimal day-to-day change expected through the period as the forecast area remains parked under a eastern CONUS ridge. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Diurnal chances for showers/storms can be expected each day with daytime heating but there does not appear to be any significant features to focus activity until late on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The eastern CONUS ridge is progged by ensemble guidance to shift east off the coast by early next week. Mainly diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances are expected in the moist, unstable atmosphere west of the ridge through much of the long term period. Models differ on the handling of a low across the Carolinas by mid week, and the northern extent of any associated precip. Used adjusted Superblend guidance through the period to account for the uncertainty and varying operation model solutions. Temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal levels. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR conditions will persist through the evening hours. Towards morning, increasingly moist low levels will allow for MVFR fog formation at most terminals, with some IFR ceiling possible at FKL/DUJ. A weak wave may provide a few overnight showers but chances are too low for inclusion. VFR will be reestablished by midmorning Friday as fog dissipates and ceilings lift. An isolated shower or storm remains possible Friday afternoon, but again, not enough confidence in ocurrence for a VCSH/VCTS mention at this time. CL .OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Restriction chances in afternoon/evening convection will continue through the holiday weekend.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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