Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 151025 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 525 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather is expected today under high pressure. Light precipitation chances return with a Monday warm front, with more widespread rain expected by Tuesday with low pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Stratus near and S of I 70, with patchy stratocu to the N, should continue to gradually clear from N-S this morning under building high pressure. Mid and high level clouds should increase thereafter during the day as warm advection begins ahead of the next approaching shortwave. Highs are expected to be just above the seasonal averages.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A weak shortwave should return slight to low chances for precip tonight and Monday. Mainly light rain chances are expected, though precip could initially start as some freezing rain especially in the higher terrain of WV and MD. Low confidence in occurrence precludes an HWO mention at this time. Better chances for rain are expected Monday night and Tuesday with increasing shortwave support ahead of an upper trough quickly advancing from the Plains to the Great Lakes region. With sufficient model agreement on ascent and available moisture, increased POPs to categorical. Another trough rapidly advancing from the Upper Midwest should maintain shower chances Tuesday night and Wednesday with it`s approach and passage. Temperatures are expected to average 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal levels. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Eastern CONUS ridging is progged to develop through the weekend as a deep trough moves across the Plains and Midwest, resulting in mainly dry and warm weather for the local area through the period. Temperatures are expected to average 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal levels using tweaked Superblend guidance numbers. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Building high pressure will suppress residual stratus and stratocu as the morning progresses and ensure VFR and light wind for the TAF period. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions can be expected with a Monday warm front, and with a Tue/Wed cdfnt.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 07/15 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.