Area Forecast Discussion
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747 FXUS61 KPBZ 221940 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 240 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather can then be expected until the approach of the next front on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Current regional satellite imagery shows expansive cloud cover across the area, although some cracks are starting to form. This remnant moisture left in the wake of last night`s cold front will take some time to erode. The forecast will hold clouds through the late evening until low- level flow can sufficiently back and bring drier air in from the west. Temperatures will likely hold steady through early evening, before beginning their march downward. As mentioned above, appreciable clearing is expected to be rather slow tonight. This, and dewpoint values currently just a few degrees away from their expected low values tonight, will provide a floor for tonight`s low temperatures. Values are still expected to be about 10 degrees below average. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure building in at the surface will lead to a tranquil Thanksgiving and Friday. Troughing aloft will keep cool conditions in place, but some temperature moderation is expected with increased sunshine. By Friday, highs should be back in the ballpark of average values. The next high-latitude system will stream through northeast Ontario early Saturday. This will eventually sweep another relatively dry cold front through the forecast area. Similar to yesterday`s system, the moisture starved cold front will result in light rain, but higher PoPs will be confined to the northern half of the area. Behind the front, northwest flow gets established, bringing the possibility of backlash, lake-effect snow showers. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Broad troughing will briefly carry into early next week. Eventually, the strong southwest CONUS ridge will dislodge and move eastward. This will bring our area another round of tranquil weather Tuesday with a warming trend towards the middle of next week. Substantial timing disagreement exists for the next disturbance middle to late next week, so broad low chance PoPs were maintained. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The last few isolated rain/snow showers behind the front will end during the afternoon with little impact to aviation. Ceilings will begin as a mix of MVFR and low VFR, with an improvement to VFR areawide by evening as high pressure builds in, with favorable flight conditions persisting through Thanksgiving. Northwest winds from 10 to 15 knots initially will fade with the daylight, becoming light tonight. .Outlook... The next chance for restrictions is forecast with a Saturday cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.