Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 031349 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 949 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TODAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE WERE ADJUSTMENTS TO MORNING POPS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND HIGH RES TRENDS. PREVIOUS... FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ON A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE IN ADVANCE AND ALONG THAT FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE TO WORK WITH...ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR MODEST WIND SHEAR...WHICH MAY HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS SHOULD SUFFICIENT UPDRAFT STRENGTH DEVELOPMENT. ONLY LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDE RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THE TIMING OF UPPER SHORTWAVE SUPPORT...WHICH HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE SPC SLIGHT RISK PROGNOSIS LOOKS REASONABLE FOR NOW WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT COMING FROM WIND GUSTS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT FINALLY SLIDES ACROSS THE I 70 CORRIDOR. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THUS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY WITH BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRING A SHOWER TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. MOST OF WEDNESDAY DAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THIS FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE AS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ARE SPARSE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE EASTERN US. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH OVERALL BETTER CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THAN IN THE PREVIOUS DAYS RUNS. WITH THE TROUGH PROGGED TO DEEPEN BY NEXT WEEKEND...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES IN NORTHERLY FLOW.
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&& .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR WILL DOMINATE UNTIL CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITH THE ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD...ALTHOUGH RESTRICTION POTENTIAL MAY LINGER FOR SOUTHERN PORTS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED IN VICINITY OF...AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT INTO THE MORNING. AND DEGRADED CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE ON TUESDAY WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY UPPER DISTURBANCE.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15

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