Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 271745 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 145 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Upper low pressure will maintain cool temperature and the possibility for an isolated shower until this evening. Wednesday looks dry, before showers, storms, and warmer temperatures return Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... No major changes were needed for the mid afternoon update. Cumulus and isolated showers under cold upper troughing will fade this evening as temperature falls under convective thresholds. Overnight temperatures were persistently forecast about 12 degrees under the averages. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Ridging will build over the region on Wednesday and temperature will recover to near average with insolation and increased warm advection. Cloud coverage will increase Wednesday night ahead of an approaching shortwave in increasingly zonal flow. The mid-level disturbance will be over the Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon which will likely lead to the development of showers and storms. Have included PoPs on Thursday, generally north of PIT, with likely PoPs over the far north. Temperatures on Thursday will continue to trend up, and winds will be gusty out of the southwest as the pressure gradient tightens. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Models are in general agreement in development of a Mississippi Valley to Eastern CONUS trough this weekend, although actual amplitude and shortwaves-in-flow continue detail and timing discrepancies. The POPS and temperature forecasts are thus close to climo as per a blend of guidance. && Upper low pressure will maintain cool temperatures and the possibility for an isolated shower or two north of interstate 80 today. Dry Wednesday, before showers, storms, and warmer temperatures return Thursday and Friday. .AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR will predominate. A crossing shortwave trough will support scattered afternoon showers mainly N of PIT. Otherwise, cumulus and gusty west wind will diminish as evening temperature falls below convective thresholds. .OUTLOOK... Restriction chances will increase during the latter half of the week with the approach and passage of a cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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