Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 220525 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 125 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and unsettled weather is expected through Saturday with a crossing upper level disturbance. Dry weather should return Sunday under high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Rain associated with the deformation band from large deep low to our east is quickly eroding. As this precipitation forcing winds down, mesoscale effects come more into play. Moisture convergence parallel with the long axis of Lake Huron is extending southward over Lake Erie. This lake-to-lake fetch is funneling rain showers into northern and eastern Ohio currently, but will gradually shift to the east, as winds slowly back later this morning. After a break in precipitation early this morning, chances will return across the Pittsburgh metro and downwind into the Ridges through at least midday. Low-level temperatures continue to fall at this hour and this is translating to the surface, bringing near-surface temperatures into the upper 30s and low 40s. As temperatures continue to dip, it`s reasonable to expect some snow showers in the high terrain of WV and MD. Considering how warm we`ve been, any accumulation should be minimal and on grassy surfaces. An tightening pressure gradient and mixing in cold advection should also result in gusty winds especially in the higher terrain, where gusts around 40 mph are expected. At this time, have not hoisted an advisory but have mentioned the wind gusts in the HWO. Low temperatures should be near the seasonal averages.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Cold advection in northwest flow, limited lake enhancement, and proximity to the upper low/trough should continue a scattered shower potential across the area Saturday, with some snow possibly mixing in across the higher terrain. The tight pressure gradient should also result in gusty winds of 30-35 mph, with gusts near 45 mph in the higher terrain across WV/MD. Building high pressure late Saturday and Sunday should return dry weather to the region before a fast moving cold front approaches and passes through the area Sunday night. Weak upper troughing and cool northwest flow should keep some clouds across the region Monday, with low chance pops for showers north of I 80. Other than a brief warm up Sunday in warm advection ahead of the next cold front, temperatures should average below seasonal levels. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Ridging should maintain dry weather across the region through mid week. A Midwestern trough should approach and cross the area by late week, with shower chances returning. Temperatures should average near to a few degrees below seasonal levels through the period. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Generally seeing MVFR conditions this morning as low-level moisture wraps around the parent low to our east. Expecting a gradual improvement through the day, but downlake areas should improve slower, due to the continual feed of low moisture into the area. Expect VFR conditions to be realized first at ZZV and slowly further south and east away from Lake Erie through Saturday. Expect wind gusts of 25 to 30 kts as the mixing deepens via cold advection at the top of the layer. .OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Periodic restrictions can be expected until high pressure approaches the region in the wake of a late Sunday/early Monday shortwave and associated weak front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.