Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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FXUS61 KPBZ 150402
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1202 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms are likely through Friday morning as
a series of disturbances ahead of a cold front cross the region.
Dry but cooler weather will return Saturday before additional
disturbances create cooler, unsettled weather to start the next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A round of storms ahead of a front will offer isolated severe
threats during overnight hours.
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1045pm update...
Storms continue to weaken as they move east southeast. Two
separate areas, the one to the north being fueled by a low
level just and the one to the south fueled by a shortwave trough
rushing eastward in the zonal flow aloft. Was able to remove
three counties from the tornado watch as the stronger convection
has moved south. Overnight PoPs were updated as well as
temperatures.
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Showers and a few thunderstorms Friday, with low probability
flood threat.
- Dry and cooler Saturday
- Shower chances return with a Saturday night cold front
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Showers and embedded thunderstorms will remain likely south of
the sagging cold front Friday, but dry advection from the north
and the eventual passage of the shortwave trough axis will push
remaining storms south and east of the region by Friday evening.
Cooler air filtering in behind the front will drop area
temperature but remain 10 degrees above the daily average. Any
threat from the remaining thunderstorms will be tied to flooding
due to multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rain; however,
probabilities for high rainfall rates (given limited
instability) and excessive rain (less than 10% chance of 24 hr
QPF values exceeding 1") are too low for any strong mention of
flood potential.
The Upper Ohio River Valley will experience dry weather under
the influence of high pressure as it sits between shortwave
activity to the north and south. Slight warm advection combined
with insolation will support area temperature approximately 10
degrees above the daily average. The northern stream shortwave
will drop southeast overnight Saturday, but with a more meager
moisture profile, will generated showers mostly confined to
northwest/western PA (with lower probabilities into OH and
northern WV).
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- An active and colder pattern the first half of the week
- Snow shower chances return Monday and Tuesday
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Ensemble models favor an active weather pattern through early
next week as a series of shortwave troughs cross the region amid
broad Great Lakes troughing. Expect slight swings in temperature
between systems, oscillating between near to below normal, as
well as periodic precipitation chances. There is high confidence
that enough cold advection will occur with a Monday/Tuesday
system to foster a primarily all-snow precipitation-type event;
this, like others, system may be more limited in available
moisture which would limit the potential for any impact.
By mid week, height rises as flow aloft becomes more zonal is
expected, which would foster a return to near/above normal
temperature and at least a brief period of dry weather.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Update...
A line of showers and thunderstorms, south of an IDI-AGC-PHD
line will continue to track ESE across the region overnight. IFR
restrictions and wind gusts from 35-40kt are expected.
Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms were developing
across NW PA along an advancing cold front. Some of this
activity could affect FKL and DUJ.
Previous...
A cold front advances through the area from northwest to
southeast after 09z tonight with MVFR/IFR restrictions becoming
more widespread as it pushes through. MVFR CIGs become likely
(60-80% chance) after 07z and will hold at MVFR until some drier
air works in Friday behind the front. Chances are highest for
IFR primarily for FKL/DUJ (40-50%) but lower further south. The
front and its associated rain showers finally depart late
Friday morning and restrictions begin to lift in their wake.
.Outlook...
Ceilings improve back to VFR levels Friday night but patchy fog
development could maintain restrictions through early Saturday.
VFR briefly returns later Saturday under high pressure, before
another cold front returns increasing potential for precip and
restrictions on Sunday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22/Frazier
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...Frazier
LONG TERM...Frazier
AVIATION...Cermak/WM/MLB