Area Forecast Discussion
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926 FXUS61 KPBZ 031743 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 143 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR EARLY MAY ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NEXT WEEK WE EXPECT A RETURN TO WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TYPICAL OF EARLY MAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED, BUT AS DAY GOES ON SHOULD FILL IN QUICKLY AS HEATING OCCURS. PREVIOUS...IN GENERAL...AN ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER FORECAST WL SUFFICE ON THE FLANK OF THE EWD SHIFTING UPR TROUGH...CENTERED OVR THE MIDWEST THIS MRNG. CLOUD COVER AND WEAK COLD ADVCTN UNDER THE ENCROACHING TROUGH WL LIMIT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY TODAY. EXPECT READINGS ABOUT 5 DEGREES UNDR THE AVGS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO CARVE A DEEP TROUGH OVR THE ERN CONUS BY WEDNESDAY. INCRSG POPS...CUMULATING IN LIKELY NUMBERS...WERE MAINTAINED FOR THE ADVN AND PASSAGE OF THAT SYSTEM...WITH SHOWER CHANCES AND COLD CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT A TEMPERATURE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE HIGH AMPLITUDE ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO FILL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WEEK...BUT MODEL WORLD IS NOT CONSISTENT IN THE SCENARIO...EG...GFS NOW PROGGING CONTD TROUGHING FOR SUNDAY...WHICH IS OUT OF PHASE WITH PREVIOUS SOLNS. NEVERTHELESS...DECLINING PRECIP PROBS FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURE AFTER A COLD START SHOULD DEFINE THE LONG TERM PERIOD...FORECAST FOR WHICH WAS CONSTRUCTED VIA PERSISTENCE AND COLLABORATIVE TWEAKS GIVEN THE OVRALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT SOME AIRPORTS TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TOWARD EARLY MORNING. LOCATIONS LIKE KDUJ WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR RESTRICTIONS. VFR BACK AGAIN ALL AIRPORTS A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. .OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WED THRU FRI WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT UPR TROFG. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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