Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 270918 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 518 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A PRE DAWN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO TWEAK WEATHER GRIDS...MAINLY FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. THE FOG IS FAIRLY DENSE IN SOME AREAS...BUT WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS ANTICIPATED AS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY CAPS A STILL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. SLIGHT TO CHANCE PRECIP PROBS IN THE WARMING ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WERE ADJUSTED OVER THE RIDGE AREAS AND COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I 70...WHERE WEAK OROGRAPHIC SUPPORT...AN EVE RIDGE BREEZE...AND EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT IN THE DESTABILIZED AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIRMASS TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGHING...TEMPS WILL RISE TO ABOUT 5 OR 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE AVERAGES DEPENDING ON LOCATION. THE NEAR 90 TEMPS AND MID TO UPR 60S DEWPOINTS WILL DRIVE HEAT INDICES INTO THE MID 90S...WITH RELIEF COMING ON WEDNESDAY AS RAIN CHANCES RISE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SURFACE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN UNDER A WEAK...BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY AND SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURNING RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE BASED WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE...SMOOTHING OUT SOME OPERATIONAL MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO MVFR FOG FOR AREA PORTS THROUGH EARLY MORNING...WITH PATCHY IFR ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FELL SUNDAY. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS MIXING ERODES THE FOG...THOUGH CU RULE AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE VFR DIURNAL CU. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD BRING A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS WELL S OF PIT BUT WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OUT AT SOUTHERN PORTS FOR NOW. OUTLOOK...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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