Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 161825 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 125 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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MID AFTERNOON UPDATE TO ADJUST MAX AND HOURLY TEMPS. LOW PRESSURE CROSSING MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. SURFACE WIND SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO WITH THE BEGINNING OF COLD ADVECTION WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO MAX TEMPS TODAY WITH A SMALL FALL OFF LATE AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THIS EVENING...KEEPING POPS HIGH UNTIL ITS EXIT. BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AND CAA WILL BEGIN AS WINDS VEER TO THE WEST AND PULL THE COLDER AIR EASTWARD. THE CAA WILL START SLOW TONIGHT BUT WILL RAMP UP ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE COLDER AIR...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH AND RIDGES. INVERSIONS WILL LOWER RATHER QUICKLY...BUT SO WILL THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. WILL KEEP THE POPS FOR SNOW MOSTLY OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WED AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... PROVIDING ANOTHER PUSH OF COLDER AIR AND VEER THE WINDS FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS COULD PROVIDE A BRIEF EXPANSION OF SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE...BUT WITH INVERSIONS SO LOW IT WILL NOT BE A LARGE EXPANSION. ON THURSDAY...THE COLD AIR WILL BE SHOVED NORTHEASTWARD AS A WEAK RIDGE DRIFTS THROUGH THE MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO SOUTHERN OHIO WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY CONFINE THE SNOW SHOWER RISK TO THE NORTH. NOTICEABLY COLDER TEMPS ON THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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AN UPR TROF MOVG OUT OF THE CNTRL CONUS WL RTN PCPN CHCS FOR THE WEEKEND. CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED WITH UNCERTAINTY IN NRN EXTENT OF ANY PCPN AND THE TRACK OF THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW. SEASONAL TEMPS WERE FORECAST CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CONDITION DETERIORATION TO LOW END MVFR AND EVENTUAL IFR WL CONT TDA WITH SHWRS AND RELATIVE SATURATION WITH PASSAGE OF THE ADVNG CDFNT. IN ADDITION...SFC WIND WL VEER TO THE WEST BY EVE WITH INITIAL GUSTS NR 20 KTS. IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHRTWV CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WL REINFORCE THE MIXING LYR VIA COLD ADVCTN...HENCE MVFR STRATOCU SHOULD QUICKLY RTN TO MOST PORTS AS EVE APCHS. OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... PERIODIC RSTRN POTENTIAL WL CONT FOR THE RMNDR OF THE WEEK WITH STRATOCU AND THE APCH OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW PRES ON SATURDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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