Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 230903 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 403 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDWESTERN STATES WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND OCCASIONAL RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A CROSSING SHRTWV THIS MRNG IS EXPD TO MARK THE BEGINNING OF WRM ADVCTN. UNTIL THEN HOWEVER...COLD AIR DAMMING CONTS IN GARRETT COUNTY MD WITH MANY TEMPS AOB FRZG. WITH ONGOING FZDZ AND AN AREA OF RAIN APCHG...EXTENDED THE FRZG RAIN ADVY THRU 7AM. OTRW...SCT- NMRS SHWRS ARE EXPD THIS MRNG WITH THE ABV MENTIONED SHRTWV. EXP A GENL LULL IN PCPN THIS AFTN AS THE WAVE EXITS. TEMPS SHOULD AVG SVRL DEG ABV THE SEASONAL LVLS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A DEEPENING TROF IS PROGGED TO ADVN FM THE CNTRL CONUS AS ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING SFC LOW PRES TRACKS FM THE GULF COAST INTO THE GT LKS TUE NGT INTO WED NGT. RAIN CHCS WL INCR THRU THE PD AS DEEP MSTR AND LIFT ADVN ACRS THE RGN. THIS SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS PROGGED FOR A WED EVE/NGT PASSAGE. COLD ADVCTN WL ALLOW FOR A CHANGEOVER TO A FEW SNW SHWRS LT WED NGT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...THOUGH LTD MSTR...LWRG TEMP INVERSIONS...AND MARGINAL SFC AIR TEMPS SHOULD KEEP ACCUMS TO A MINIMUM. IN ADDN...GUSTY SFC WNDS ARE EXP WITH A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT AFT FROPA. WL MAINTAIN A MNTN OF THIS IN THE HWO AND MONITOR FOR ANY PSBL ADVYS. RIDGING IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY BLD IN THU NGT AND FRI WITH DRY WEA. TEMPS SHOULD AVG WELL ABV SEASONAL AVGS UNTIL THE WED NGT FROPA RTNS READINGS TO MORE SEASONAL LVLS.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED AS LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWED BOTH POOR AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY...AND ANY CHANGES THAT WERE MADE WERE PRIMARILY BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS. WITH THAT...DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS RIDGING TRANSITIONS OVER THE REGION. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN RESULT IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NGT...WITH DETERIORATION TO MVFR THEREAFTER AS WARM FRONT SURGES NWD. AS THAT FEATURE PROGRESSES...LOW END VFR SHOULD RTN UNTIL RAIN AND RESTRICTION CHCS INCRS ON TUESDAY NGT. OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE SYSTEMS CDFNT WL CONT RESTRICTION POTENTIAL INTO THURSDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ001. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE.
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&& $$

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