Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 261927 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 327 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Rain is expected tonight and again Monday night into Tuesday. Mild weather will remain through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Low pressure currently near Chicago will move northeast over Lake Huron overnight. An occluded front associated with the low will move across the region overnight. One band of rain is currently moving across the Pittsburgh metro area with a second band of rain extending from Toledo down towards Columbus and Charleston. A narrow area of clear skies between the two bands could provide extra heating to allow some strong to possibly severe thunderstorms along the second band. Our eastern Ohio and northern WV panhandle counties are under a marginal risk for severe storms, with damaging wind the primary threat. Deep layer shear has been consistently forecast to be modest along the front, with instability expected to be the limiting factor. With little change in airmass, overnight temperatures will remain quite warm once again, only dropping into the upper 40s and 50s. A chance for showers will continue into Monday morning across eastern counties, with mostly dry conditions expected Monday afternoon. High temperatures will be similar to today`s values, generally in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... By Monday evening showers along with another low pressure system will begin to move in from the west, and another round of showers is forecast late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Showers will linger into Tuesday afternoon before high pressure brings cooler and drier air for Tuesday night and Wednesday. While the first 24 hours of the period will remain mild, values Tuesday night and Wednesday will be about 10 degrees cooler than the previous day. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A sprawling low pressure system will spread rain across much of the eastern United States. The ECMWF and GFS have come into better agreement than they were 24 hours ago, showing showers moving into the region Thursday night, continuing into Friday and Friday night. A stray shower could remain into Saturday before dry weather returns Saturday night and Sunday. Seasonable temperatures are expected through the extended forecast. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low pressure tracking across the OH valley/lower Great Lakes will result in 3 distinct periods of showers the remainder of the afternoon and tonight. VFR looks more likely to be maintained after the first wave...but as moisture increases in the lower levels deterioration to low MVFR is likely. Thunderstorms still remain a possibility, however, have not been included in TAFs at this time based on limited instability. Outlook... Restrictions are likely again Mon night/Tue with a crossing cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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