Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 261927
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
327 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017
Rain is expected tonight and again Monday night into Tuesday.
Mild weather will remain through Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure currently near Chicago will move northeast over
Lake Huron overnight. An occluded front associated with the low
will move across the region overnight. One band of rain is
currently moving across the Pittsburgh metro area with a second
band of rain extending from Toledo down towards Columbus and
Charleston. A narrow area of clear skies between the two bands
could provide extra heating to allow some strong to possibly
severe thunderstorms along the second band. Our eastern Ohio and
northern WV panhandle counties are under a marginal risk for
severe storms, with damaging wind the primary threat. Deep layer
shear has been consistently forecast to be modest along the
front, with instability expected to be the limiting factor. With
little change in airmass, overnight temperatures will remain
quite warm once again, only dropping into the upper 40s and 50s.
A chance for showers will continue into Monday morning across
eastern counties, with mostly dry conditions expected Monday
afternoon. High temperatures will be similar to today`s values,
generally in the 60s.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
By Monday evening showers along with another low pressure system
will begin to move in from the west, and another round of
showers is forecast late Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Showers will linger into Tuesday afternoon before high pressure
brings cooler and drier air for Tuesday night and Wednesday.
While the first 24 hours of the period will remain mild, values
Tuesday night and Wednesday will be about 10 degrees cooler than
the previous day.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A sprawling low pressure system will spread rain across much of
the eastern United States. The ECMWF and GFS have come into
better agreement than they were 24 hours ago, showing showers
moving into the region Thursday night, continuing into Friday
and Friday night. A stray shower could remain into Saturday
before dry weather returns Saturday night and Sunday. Seasonable
temperatures are expected through the extended forecast.
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure tracking across the OH valley/lower Great Lakes
will result in 3 distinct periods of showers the remainder of
the afternoon and tonight. VFR looks more likely to be
maintained after the first wave...but as moisture increases in
the lower levels deterioration to low MVFR is likely.
Thunderstorms still remain a possibility, however, have not been
included in TAFs at this time based on limited instability.
Restrictions are likely again Mon night/Tue with a crossing