Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 080221 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1021 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RESULT IN DRIER WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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EARLIER CONVECTION IS NOW RELEGATED TO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY SUCH THAT NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN NOTED FOR QUITE A WHILE NOW. UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHEASTERN OHIO SHOULD ADVECT INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND WITH FAIRLY STRONG SHEAR REMAINING IN PLACE...IT IS LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER AT LEAST IN SOME FASHION. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE RESIDENT AIR MASS HAS ALREADY BEEN FAIRLY WELL WORKED OVER DUE TO THIS EVENING`S CONVECTION...AND INSTABILITY WAS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE EVEN IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. AS SUCH...INTENSITY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE OVERNIGHT. FRIES PREVIOUS DISCUSSION TUESDAY FOLLOWS...A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS...APPROACHING THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY. WHILE INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TODAY...WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GREATER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY COMPARED TO MONDAY. IN ADDITION...OVERALL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING TWO INCHES. IF ANY STORMS DO MANAGE TO TRAIN AND TRACK OVER THE SAME LOCATION ALONG THE FRONT...THE CHANCE FOR FLOODING COULD NOT BE RULED OUT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT COMPLETES PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA. FRONT COULD LINGER ACROSS THE RIDGES ON WEDNESDAY...KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. WITH COLD POOL REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ELSEWHERE. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THIS SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THINGS OUT AND ALLOW FOR A DRY FORECAST INTO THURSDAY. AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RIDGES ON THURSDAY...BUT DID NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO PUT THIS IN THE FORECAST THREE DAYS OUT. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... FRIDAY THE SFC HIGH GETS FAR ENOUGH NORTHEAST THAT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COULD BEGIN TO POOL MOISTURE ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE RIDGES. THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM IS POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE AREA OVER NEXT SAT. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO HAVE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN HOW TO HANDLE THE WAVE PASSAGE. ECMWF PHASES TWO WAVES ULTIMATELY AMPLIFYING BROAD UPPER TROF...WHILE THE 00Z GFS HAS DOUBLED DOWN ON PASSING A LEADING WAVE QUICKLY THROUGH IN ZONAL FLOW. FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF...BUT WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST 6 AND 7 DAYS OUT...DECIDED TO TAKE A LESS THAN DETERMINISTIC APPROACH TO POPS. TAX && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER MOST SITES HAS WANED...HOWEVER ACTIVITY ENTERING THE AREA NEAR KZZV WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF TS GENERALLY BETWEEN KZZV AND KHLG FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINFALL TODAY AT SOME SITES WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR STRATUS AND VIS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOCATION IFR LIKELY IN KFKL AND KDUJ WHERE MUCH MORE RAINFALL OCCURRED. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS/GUSTY WINDS LIKELY WITH SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN TIMING AT THE MOMENT. FRIES .OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... RSTRNS ARE PSBL WED WITH AN ADVNG DISTURBANCE. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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