Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 250544 AAC AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 144 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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A WARM FRONT WILL INITIATE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TODAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH A THURSDAY COLD FRONT.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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OVERNIGHT IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SHOWERS TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE AND TEMPS OVER THE RIDGES. SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST IS WEAKENING AND SHEARING APART AS IT RUNS INTO WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. NOT A LOT OF STATIONS OVER INDIANA OR WESTERN OHIO ARE REPORTING RAIN...AND THOSE THAT ARE...IT IS VERY LIGHT. THE HEADACHE OVERNIGHT IS IF THESE SHOWERS CAN HOLD TOGETHER AND HOW FAST TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM. ALL GUIDANCE IS HALTING THE SURFACE COOLING ONCE THE CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA...AND ARE SHOWING THEM BEGINNING TO RISE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. SOME COLDER AIR MAY GET TRAPPED IN THE VALLEYS IN THE FAR EASTERN RIDGES...SO IF ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WERE TO OCCUR...IT WOULD BE THERE. FOR NOW...DO NOT THINK THE PRECIP WILL MAKE IT HERE BEFORE THE WARM UP BEGINS...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF PIT WHERE THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE...AND WHERE THE AXIS OF A LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP. PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE WAVE EXITS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH REGION WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WITH A SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG IT...IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE STILL DIFFERING ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE HERE SHOWING PRECIPITATION BLOSSOMING AS IT DEVELOPS A SECONDARY BOUNDARY. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION...AT LEAST NOT TO THE EXTENT THE NAM IS PRESENTING. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED ONCE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE IS LIMITED...THOUGH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY WARM ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN TO MIX IN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO READINGS WELL BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS BY FRIDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE CONTROL OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE WARM...MOIST ADVECTION WITH THAT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LIGHT RAIN AND EVENTUAL MVFR CEILINGS AS THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE AROUND SUNRISE. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD. EXPECT THAT ALL SITES WILL HAVE GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN OHIO DURING THE MORNING. HAD ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO ZZV...BUT WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT LLJ WOULD BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO INCLUDE LLWS AT ANY OTHER TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. .OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THIS WEEK AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CROSS THE REGION. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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