Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 051301 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 801 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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THE POST DAWN UPDATE FEATURED SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TRENDS OF PRECIP PROBS AND TEMPS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND HIGH RES TRENDS. SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I 79 WILL DIMINISH AS THE SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. THEREAFTER...A CLOUD DECREASE AND TEMP RECOVERY TOWARD THE SEASONAL AVGS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH OVRNGT LOWS ALSO NEAR THE AVGS UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIVE SATURDAY TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMALS...AROUND...OR A CPL DEGREES ABOVE THE 40 F MARK. PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO BE PCPN FREE WITH A LACK OF ASCENT AND MOISTURE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA SO ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WITH THIS SYSTEM. RIDGING BETWEEN UPR MS VALLEY AND SERN U.S. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT A DRY SUNDAY...WITH FURTHER...ALBEIT MINOR MODERATION OF TEMPERATURE. THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW IS CURRENTLY TIMED FOR A MONDAY APPROACH...HENCE LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED WITH A MARGINAL TEMP PROFILE FOR RAIN OR SNOW.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED OVR THE ERN CONUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SUB AVG TEMPS AND PERIODIC...SNOW SHOWER CHANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE RIDGES AND I 80 CORRIDOR....MAY THUS BE ANTICIPATED FOR THE PERIOD. MOST OF THE LONG TERM WAS CREATED USING THE SUPERBLEND.
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&& .AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VARIABLE MVFR CIGS WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTS FROM KPIT EAST WILL DIMINISH AS THE SPPRTG UPR TROUGH PASSES. VFR WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST SFC WIND ARND 10 KTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED THEREAFTER. .OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15

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