Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 211449 AAC AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1049 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... LINE OF SHWRS CURRENTLY MOVG ACRS ERN PORTION OF FCST AREA WILL CONT EWD INTO CNTRL PA BY NOON. POPS WERE INCRD TO REFLECT THIS LINE...BUT WERE DECRD QUICKLY THEREAFTER TO REFLECT THE PCPN LULL XPCD IN ITS WAKE. ATTM...CDFNT IS LOCATED FROM CNTRL MI TO NRN IN/NRN IL WHILE PRE- FRONTAL TROF IS IN SERN IN TO N-CNTRL OH. THE LATTER FEATURE WILL CONT TO ADVC ESEWD THRU TDA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ANY PCPN THIS AFTN. APART FROM A BAND OF BKN-OVC CLDS IN WRN PA THIS MRNG...QUALITY INSOLATION IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE SFC TROF...WITH VSBL SATELLITE INDICATING CNVCTV CLD DVLPMT IN MUCH OF OH. H5 TROF WILL BCM INCRGLY NEUTRALLY- TO NEGATIVELY-TILTED TDA AS JET STRENGTHENS...LEADING CDFNT TO OVERTAKE SFC TROF LATE THIS AFTN. INSOLATION...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MSTR AHEAD OF THE BNDRY SHOULD FOSTER INCRG CHCS FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN. MID-LVL CAP MAY LMT DEPTH OF ANY CNVCTN...BUT LOW-LVL WIND FIELD IS QUITE STRONG...SO GUSTY/DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE DPR STORMS. PCPN SHOULD VACATE THE FCST AREA BY 00-01 UTC AS COLD AIR ADVCTN INCRS. STRATOCU SHOULD BCM ABUNDANT LATE TNGT AND LAKE-EFFECT SHWRS WILL BE PSBL IN NRN ZONES AS FLOW BCMS INCRGLY NWLY. CLDS XPCD TO LINGER LATE TNGT THRU MUCH OF MON UNTIL SUBSIDENCE STRENGTHENS EARLY MON EVE. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AS THE ENTIRE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST COAST. WAA WILL KICK IN MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR. SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE DAY TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... DRY AND SEASONABLE PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LINGERING LINE OF SHWRS WILL VACATE QUICKLY AND WILL PRODUCE ONLY LMTD MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND LCL WIND GUSTS TO 25KT. RETURN TO VFR CONDS XPCD LATE THIS MRNG BFR A SECOND LINE OF SHWRS AND TSTMS DVLPS MID-LATE AFTN ALONG ADVCG CDFNT. THIS LINE MAY PRODUCE STRONGER WIND GUSTS...QUITE PSBLY STRONG TO SVR. TIMING WILL BE DURG 20Z-24Z FROM W TO E. GENL VFR CONDS XPCD THEREAFTER. OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... STRATOCUMULUS BETWEEN 3-5KFT AGL WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DRY PATTERN. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...KRAMAR

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