Area Forecast Discussion
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832 FXUS61 KPBZ 081216 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 716 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cold weather continues. Snow showers are likely with a reinforcing cold front Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Quick morning update to make minor adjustments to cloud cover. Otherwise, forecast is on track with dry conditions expected today under high pressure. Only some high cirrus expected from the system that should pass to our south. Temperatures will remain well below normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Troughing will be the dominant feature through the period. Eastward movement of the surface cold front, and its associated deepening upper level trough, has slowed in the latest model runs. This is due to the development of a surface low off the North Carolina coast. Have slowed the onset of snow showers in the west until late in the day, and these snow showers will move eastward through the evening and overnight. Timing will be predicated on the deep upper trough, which looks to reach western PA shortly after midnight. Trough will move through very quickly, reaching eastern PA around dawn on Sunday. Strong cold air advection behind the trough will keep snow showers going, mainly over the I-80 corridor and ridge counties. These locations will see the bulk of the snow accumulations. The heart of the cold air swings through Sunday morning, at the same time, winds will back to the west and inversions will lower, as much drier air overspreads the region. Expect most, if not all of the snow showers to end by Sunday afternoon. Temperatures are expected to remain 5 to 10 degrees below average. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A longwave trough is progged to persist across the Eastern CONUS through the period, as shortwaves rotate through the trough and maintain periodic snow shower chances. Temperatures will average 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal levels on most days. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Lingering areas of MVFR cigs are possible over eastern ports through dawn, as the last patch of low stratocu dissipates. Following the eradication of the low clouds, VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the forecast period. South-southwest winds of 10 to 15 kts are expected during the daytime hours, with occasional higher gusts. .Outlook... The next chance for widespread restrictions is Saturday evening/night, as a shortwave trough approaches and increases chances for snow. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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