Area Forecast Discussion
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335 FXUS61 KPBZ 221140 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 740 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracking across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast United States will result in rain chances south of I 80 today, and south of I 70 Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The post dawn update included adjustments to POPs as per the latest radar and high res model trends. Previous... Areas of light rain have developed along a mid level trough ahead of the main approaching nrn stream upper trough. Increased POPs to likely for a short time this morning generally S of I 80. The focus for rain should shift S by mid morning as the approaching northern stream upper trough and developing surface low pressure across the TN Valley result in additional areas of rain mainly near and S of the I 70 corridor where categorical POPs were maintained. This area is expected to be in proximity to more favorable moisture/lift. Highs are expected to average several degrees below the seasonal average. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The surface low is progged to move to the SE CONUS by Sunday as the upper trough deepens to a closed upper low across the TN Valley. This should keep rain chances across areas especially S of I 70 tonight, with chance POPs confined to the I 68 corridor and S by Sunday through Monday night as that area is progged in proximity to weak dynamics on the northern periphery of the low. Seasonal temperature can be expected. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Dry weather and moderating temperature are expected next week as ridging builds in advance of a Wrn CONUS trough. Rain chances could return later in the week with a crossing trough. Temperature is expected to rise 10 to 20 degrees above average by late week. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low end VFR and MVFR stratus will continue to degrade conditions into afternoon as will light rain at LBE and MGW. By late afternoon, low pressure is projected to shift east and improve conditions to VFR at all ports. .Outlook... The next chance for general restrictions is expected with mid week low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ 15

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