Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 300822 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 422 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A DECREASE IN LOW CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BE SHOVED NORTHEASTWARD AS WARM ADVECTION TAKES OVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A LARGE SHIELD OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF THE ONSET OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON STILL REMAINS PROBLEMATIC DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AND PLACEMENT OF MID- WESTERN LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. WILL KEEP TIMING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHOULD SEE A BUMP IN TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH THE EXPECTATION OF SOME SUN AND WARMER AIR. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... DEEP MOISTURE AND WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHERN REACHES OF MY AREA. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM. MODEL DIFFERENCE CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE SURFACE LOW. LATEST NAM IS GENERALLY ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE GEFS...WHILE IT IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CMC AND GEPS. THESE DIFFERENCES ALSO IMPACT THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND HOW MUCH OF THE AREA IS IN THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY... THIS WILL DETERMINE IF THE AREA BREAKS OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IN TURN INSTABILITY INCREASES IN A MORE BUOYANT AIRMASS. FOR THE SUNDAY FORECAST...WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF MODEL DATA DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AS WELL. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL ALSO SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR IMPROVED CONDITIONS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A STRONGLY ANCHORED PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AS A RIDGE LOOKS TO EVOLVE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK AFTER A DRY MID-WEEK. THIS WILL MEAN SHOWER CHANCES WILL RETURN AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY TREND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MVFR/PATCHY IFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THRU THIS MRNG WITH LOW LVL MOISTURE IN PLACE. BUILDING SFC RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN SOME DECREASE IN LOW LVL CLOUDS. VFR IS EXPD TO RETURN AFTER DAYBREAK AS MID LVL CLOUDS INCREASE AHD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MVFR...AND EVENTUAL IFR...RESTRICTIONS AND RAIN LATE SAT FOR PORTS S OF I 80. .OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU MON AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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