Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 231741 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 141 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and humid again today, with the risk for showers and storms continuing. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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The risk for showers and storms will continue today as a shortwave trough, diving across the Great lakes, helps to push a boundary southward. An important factor today will be the amount of sunshine and the timing of the aforementioned shortwave. If convection does develop, it appears it would be later in the day and be enhanced to the south residual outflow boundaries. If the track of the wave holds, the focus for organized and stronger activity would be over the southern half of the region once again. Have indicated higher PoPs over this portion of the forecast area. Still seeing differences in model solutions due to convective feedback issues and also the placement of the upper level energy and how that large scale ascent interacts with the southward moving surface front. Due to these complications decided not to go any higher than low likely PoPs.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Activity wanes tonight with the loss of daytime heating, but again expect a muggy night with temps well into the 60s and lower 70s. Mid level trough sweeps through Monday afternoon so this will be the last round of showers/storms before a welcome break occurs. Upper level heights will rise on Tuesday, and a broad surface high will build into the Great Lakes. This will keep the area dry with increased sunshine and seasonable temperatures. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Ridge will shift toward Eastern CONUS on Wednesday, leading to dry weather and a gradual warming through Thursday. Deepening upper low over Hudson Bay will swing a boundary over the Great Lakes, returning chances for showers/storms in northwest flow to end the week. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Cigs will continue to improve through the remainder of the afternoon, with VFR expected to prevail, outside of any thunderstorm. Morning cloud cover may have limited instability initially but with clouds beginning to scatter out, coverage should increase, as is progged by the hi res model guidance this evening. Will keep the VCTS mention through tonight as the upper level shortwave digs across the great lakes. Deterioration back to MVFR and possibly IFR is expected, with the late showers/storms with some improvement by early Monday as the frontal boundary finally starts to sag southward across the forecast area, some additional thunderstorm activity is anticipated this evening. Kept VCTS in there with the .OUTLOOK... Restrictions will continue through Monday, with VFR prevailing thereafter.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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