Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 192055 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 455 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Thunderstorms will accompany the passage of a cold front this evening.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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An update was issued to account for dropped watch counties north and west of Pittsburgh. The watch will be dropped as the line of convection passes during the next couple of hours. Dry advection and subsidence in the wake of the front will support a quiet and comfortable night. Expect overnight lows near/a couple degrees under the seasonal averages.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Building high pressure in the wake of the aforementioned system will result in a dry and seasonable Sunday with slightly lower dewpoints/humidity. Warm, moist advection with flat ridging in advance of a midwestern shortwave as per the latest model solutions indicate increased humidity with a rapid temperature moderation above the averages for Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The aforementioned midwest trough/associated front are likely to provide the next precip chance by Tuesday. Eastern CONUS troughing is then forecast to support temperatures a few degrees under the averages for the remainder of the week. && .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Numerous thunderstorms can be expected as a cold front crosses the region this afternoon/early evening. VCTS and tempo TS were included for terminals with the most likely timing. VFR will return in the wake of the showers and thunderstorms, although with clearing and winds calming, some pre-dawn fog could develop. This will likely be dependent on the extent and amount of rainfall this evening. Surface flow will generally remain from the west at 10kts with occasional gusts to 15kts. Winds will then calm tonight as high pressure begins to build in. .Outlook... Widespread restriction potential returns with a late Tue/early Wed cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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