Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 031725 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 125 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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MAIN CHANGES FOR REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING WAS TO RAISE MAX TEMPS ANOTHER 1 TO 2 DEGREES AND LOWER POPS. SHORTWAVE OVER MICHIGAN IS MOVING ALMOST DUE EAST AND DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A FACTOR FOR PRODUCING ANY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ALSO HOLDING BACK CU FORMATION SOMEWHAT WITH ONLY FLAT FAIR WX CU THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE MOST PART. WITH INCREASED AFTERNOON SUNSHINE HAVE UPPED MAX TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT READINGS. AFTER ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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NO CHANGES TO SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION FRIDAY...WITH UNCERTAIN CONTRIBUTION FROM ANY SHORTWAVE TO HELP INCREASE STORM COVERAGE. STILL QUITE WARM AND HUMID WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS PA UNDER STRENGTHENING RIDGE. DON`T EXPECT ANY DIURNAL ACTIVITY SATURDAY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE. MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REBUILD THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. RELIEF FROM THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS MAY COME WITH COLD FRONT LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. THE EXCEPTION TO VFR COULD OCCUR WITH DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS AS A VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF ANY POP UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO WEAK FLOW AND FORCING. THUS DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN TAFS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR AS FOG DEVELOPS ACROSS THE TERMINALS BY DAWN. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY MORNING FOG.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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