Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 290818 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 418 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AFTER TEMPERATURES REBOUND TODAY FROM YESTERDAYS COLD VALUES...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS LIKELY TONIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... FIRST PRECIPITATION CONCERN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL COME FROM AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TRACKING ACROSS LAKE HURON SOUTH OVER LAKE ERIE. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIE OFF...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND DAWN ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. PRIMARY RAIN CONCERN WILL COME FROM LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM ILLINOIS INTO WESTERN OHIO TODAY. MAIN AXIS OF RAIN SO FAR IS ALONG THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM CHICAGO SOUTH INTO TENNESSEE. HIGH- RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DETERMINING WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN COULD OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST. AGREE WITH SPC PLACING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER SOUTHWEST OF OUR REGION WHERE EFFECTIVE WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE HIGHEST. STILL...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OHIO IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE HEATING. HAVE STILL STUCK WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN OHIO CONSIDERING DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO BE OVERCOME IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST OF PITTSBURGH FOLLOWING THE TRACK OF THE LOW CENTER OVER LAKE ERIE. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK WITH...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RAISE DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 10 DEGREES FROM SUNDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AS WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE PATTERN...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS THERE IS MINIMAL CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AND TROUGHING REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE. LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...HOWEVER AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN ANY FINER DETAILS IS LACKING SO THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY BROAD BRUSHED. AT THIS TIME THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY WHEN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE FAVORABLE AND SATURDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH A WARMING TREND TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE LONGWAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THROUGH EARLY MORNING AS SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LESSEN...HOWEVER...CLOUD COVERAGE INVADING FROM THE WEST MAY SHORTLY PUT THE BRAKES ON FURTHER DECREASES IN TEMPERATURE. WITH THAT IN MIND AND LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING A 4 TO 5 DEGREE SPREAD ON AVERAGE...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF VIS RETRICTIONS IN LATEST TAF UPDATE AS THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE. AFTER ANY MORNING FOG...VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE FRONT. .OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SERIES OF CROSSING DISTURBANCES.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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