Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 201332 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 832 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm conditions will continue until a frontal system crosses the region Tuesday night. Well above normal temperatures are expected through the end of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Minor changes to sky cover in the near term, as dense fog remained locked in across the southern tier of counties. Visible loops just starting to show the beginnings of burnoff, and the 10 AM expiration time of the dense fog advisory still looks good. With the slightly slower start to heating, high temperatures have been reduced slightly across the south, but values remain above most guidance. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The latest model runs continue to slow the progression of a weak front, as it attempts to break down the sharp ridge over the eastern CONUS. With the slower progression, likely PoPs are not introduced until later in the afternoon/evening, which leaves more time for daytime heating in warm advection/mixing. Thus, highs were bumped up a few degrees despite increasing cloud cover. The slower passage of the front will leave the chance for rain in the southern zones through Wednesday morning but this boundary will do little to change the continued unseasonable warmth as 850hpa temperatures approach +10C once again. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Broad upper ridging will continue to support fast moving waves and warm temperatures through the end of the week, followed by a brief return to seasonal values with the passage of a more amplified shortwave and associated low pressure on Saturday. Before this system approaches, a weak wave passing north over the northern Great Lakes may bring a slight cool down and low chance PoPs on Thursday, before a the warm front with the intensifying low lifts back over the region. Strong warm and moist advection in advance of this system will support values nearly 30 degrees above normal on Friday, hampered only by any shower activity that occurs. Sharp cold front will pass Saturday morning, based on consensus of model guidance. Expect a non-diurnal trend in temperatures through Saturday, but high pressure building over the region will limit snow shower activity. Likely PoPs and a chance of thunder were maintained in the forecast with the Friday night/Saturday front passage. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions for most airports PIT northward are expected through the morning under building high pressure. Higher dew points are in place S of I 70 where cloud cover prevented full mixing during the day. These areas should see IFR/local LIFR fog and possible stratus overnight through early Monday morning. The fog should burn off as mixing begins, with VFR conditions expected for all locations the rest of the day under the high. .OUTLOOK... Restrictions are likely with a Tuesday trough and a late Friday cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ039-040- 048>050-057>059-068-069. PA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ029-031. WV...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for WVZ002>004. && $$

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