Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 270057 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 857 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY. COLDER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS COMING OFF OF LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN THEMSELVES LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO HANDLE THIS THE BEST AND ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE MCS OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA MAY CLIP OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN OHIO AND WV LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS...INCREASING THEM TO LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING. CONSIDERING THAT WE ARE QUICKLY LOSING DAYLIGHT....MOST OF THE INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED...LIMITING ANY SEVERE THREAT FOR THE NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE PRIMARY CONCERN OF THE FORECAST EFFORT CONTS TO BE SUNDAY AS DEEPENING SHRTWV IS PROJECTED ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND TWD THE UPR OH REGION. SEASONALLY STRONG JET STREAK WL INCRS THE MID AND UPR WIND OVR BACKED SFC FLOW RESULTING IN SEVERE SPPRTG SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. BNDRY POSITIONING AND INSTABILITY RMN THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR THE UPR OH REGION GIVEN CLDS AND SHWR DVLPMNT...BUT FALLING MID LVL TEMPS WITH THE ADVN OF THE MID LVL THERMAL TROF ARE EXPECTED OFFSET...ESPECIALLY LTR IN THE DAY. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE ENTIRE AREA HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED FOR A FULL ARRAY SEVERE RISK...BETTER CHC FOR WHICH IS PROJECTED OVR...AND IN VCNTY OF EAST CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS BLANKETED THAT AREA WITH A MODERATE SEVERE RISK. PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEMS CDFNT ON SUNDAY NGT WL END THE SVR THREAT AND BGN THE DOWNWARD TEMP TREND. MORE SHWRS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPR TROF DVLPS OVR THE ERN CONUS...WITH REINFORCING SFC FRONT SLATED FOR A MIDDAY PASSAGE ACRS THE UPR OH REGION. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. WENT WITH A GENERAL VCSH MENTION AND TRIED TO TEMPO SHOWERS/STORMS AS NEEDED OVERNIGHT AS STORMS MOVING SOUTH FROM LAKE ERIE AND THE MCS OVER IN/IL APPROACH. LOOKING AT DOWNSTREAM OBS OVER WESTERN OHIO...MANY TAF SITES MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT. OPTED TO MENTION THIS ACROSS THE BOARD BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MAKE IT PREVAILING EVERYWHERE. WHILE CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO VFR EVERYWHERE TOMORROW MORNING...ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. WILL MAINTAIN THE VCTS MENTION FOR NOW CONSIDERING THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING BUT EXPECT VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR AT ANY SITE THAT ENCOUNTERS A T-STORM. OUTLOOK.../SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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