Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 261737 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 137 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warm temperatures with shower and thunderstorm chances are expected through the holiday weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A weak shortwave crossing the region today will help produce scattered showers and thunderstorms as later in the afternoon as daytime heating increases instability. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... The weak shortwave should exit the region by this evening, ending any shower and thunderstorm chances. Eastern CONUS ridging is then expected to persist through the weekend. Increasing moisture and instability in southwest flow on the western periphery of the ridge should result in daily, mainly diurnal, shower and thunderstorm chances. The local area is in closest proximity to the ridge Friday, which should result in the lowest POPs in the short term period. Temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal levels are expected through the period using GFS MOS and consensus blend guidance. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The eastern CONUS ridge is progged by ensemble guidance to shift east off the coast by early next week. Mainly diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances are expected in the moist, unstable atmosphere west of the ridge through much of the long term period. Models differ on the handling of a low across the Carolinas by mid week, and the northern extent of any associated precip. Used adjusted Superblend guidance through the period to account for the uncertainty and varying operation model solutions. Temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal levels. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Prevailing VFR is anticipated through the period, expect where a shower or thunderstorm passes over a taf location this afternoon and again on friday. At this point, have only maintained vicinity thunderstorms in KLBE, KFKL, and KDUJ where the latest hi res model guidance suggests convection could develop this afternoon. Convective complex currently approaching western Ohio is progged to slide southward, weakening on it`s northern flank. However, added vicinity shower to ZZV to cover anything that may develop briefly ahead of this system. Moistening low levels may support the development of some fog toward sunrise tomorrow depending on wind speed. Both the LAMP and the experimental HREF suggest ceiling restrictions may be possible north of PIT, so IFR conditions were introduced in those terminals. Otherwise, VFR will return Friday. While there still may be a chance for a shower or thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon, the building ridge leaves little confidence for a vcsh or vcts mention at this time. .OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Restriction chances in afternoon/evening convection will continue through the holiday weekend.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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