Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 181834 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 134 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CLDS WL CONT TDA WITH MRNG RAOBS SHOWING LLVL MSTR TRAPPED BLO A TEMP INVERSION. FLURRIES OR LGT SNW SHWRS ARE EXPD ALSO...BUT WITH THE SHALLOW MSTR LYR NO SGFNT ACCUMS ARE EXPD. TEMPS SHOULD AVG A FEW DEG BLO THE SEASONAL AVG. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... A WK SHRTWV IS PROGGED TO ADVN ACRS THE RGN TNGT. WITH THE CONTD LLVL MSTR AND TEMP INVERSION JUST SCT FLURRIES ARE EXPD...THOUGH A FEW LGT ACCUMULATING SNW SHWRS ARE PSBL WITH SOME LTD LK AND TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT N OF I 80 AND IN THE RIDGES. BLDG HIGH PRES SHOULD END ANY RMNG SNW SHWRS AND FLURRIES FRI MRNG...THOUGH INVERSION TRAPPED LLVL MSTR SHOULD KEEP CLDS ACRS THE RGN. A SHRTWV ACRS THE SERN CONUS IS PROGGED TO BRING LOW CHCS FOR LGT SNW WELL SE OF PIT LT SAT...THOUGH MDLS CONT TO TREND FURTHER S WITH PCPN FM THIS SYSTEM. TEMPS SHOULD AVG A LTL BLO THE SEASONAL AVGS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD THE DETAILS OF HOW THIS EXACTLY UNFOLDS WILL BE CRITICAL. BY MONDAY SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF MAIN NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MOVING OFF SHORE OF THE EAST COAST. THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES MAY BE BRUSHED BY LIGHT RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM. NEXT UP IS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. UPPER OHIO VALLEY LOOKS TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN...FOLLOWED BY STRONG COLD FRONT AND COLD ADVECTION LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS. WITH SUCH A STRONG SYSTEM ALOFT AND FAST DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TIMING OF COLD AIR AND EXACT TRACK WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO CHRISTMAS. ALL IN ALL PREVIOUS FORECAST IS LITTLE CHANGED WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON NEWEST WPC EXTENDED PROGS.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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MVFR CIGS INTO EARLY EVENING WITH AREAS OF IFR FOG AND LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. OVERNIGHT A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW. IFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT LOOKS TO BE BORDERLINE. LIGHT SNOW ENDS BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH CONTINUED MVFR CIGS THROUGH FRIDAY. OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... STRATUS AND RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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