Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 262058 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 458 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND END THE SPARSE SHOWER CHANCES AND COOL WEATHER FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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THE UPDATE AT 5 PM WAS GENERALLY CENTERED AROUND LIMITING THE SHOWER CHANCES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND MOSTLY NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE. ELSEWHERE...ENOUGH DRIER AIR SHOULD MANAGE TO BE ENTRAINED SUCH THAT THE LAKE FETCH SHOULD BE EXHAUSTED BY THE TIME WEAK CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS FOR SHOWERS MAKE IT THAT FAR FROM LAKE ERIE. ALL ELSE HAS BEEN MAINTAINED. FRIES PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO DIG OVER THE AREA KEEPING IN CLOUDS AND THE RISK FOR SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF EARLY THIS EVE. THEREAFTER...THE LOSS OF WARMTH WILL SUPPORT SOME CLOUD REDUCTION GIVEN THE WEAKNESS OF THE COLD FLOW OFF THE LAKES. WILL THUS HEDGE WITH CLOUD COVER A BIT GIVEN COLLABORATIVE THRESHOLDS. THE TEMPERATURE PROJECTION ABOUT 10 DEGREES UNDER THE AVERAGES WAS MAINTAINED.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...WILL BEGIN FILLING IN ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE....SWINGING SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL CROSS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE CU DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO TERMINALS NORTH OF PIT ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. EXPECT VFR AT ALL PORTS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWER CHANCES ENDING BY SUNSET. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF CLEARING TONIGHT...THERE IS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG AT SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE THURSDAY PREDAWN HOURS. TRENDED TOWARD THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORNING FOG...BUT RESTRICTIONS MAY REMAIN AS LOW CIGS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80. PREVAILING VFR WITH DIURNAL STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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