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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 191825
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
225 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
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Thunderstorms will accompany the encroachment of a cold front
this afternoon and early evening.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The late  afternoon update featured further adjustments to near
term POPs as per the latest radar and high res model trends.
Insolation in the wake of morning clouds and weak convection has
destabilized the Upper Ohio airspace under an encroaching upper
trough. Given the available boundary layer moisture with that
warming, convection is likely to continue developing along the
associated weak surface reflection/reinforcing front emerging
off the Great Lakes. Pockets of dry aloft with marginal shear
are expected to maintain severe potential for wind gusts and
hail until passage of the system early this evening.
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.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Building high pressure in the wake of the aforementioned system
will result in a dry and seasonable Sunday with slightly lower
dewpoints/humidity.

Warm, moist advection with flat ridging in advance of a midwestern
shortwave as per the latest model solutions indicate increased
humidity with a rapid temperature moderation above the averages
for Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The aforementioned midwest trough/associated front are likely to
provide the next precip chance by Tuesday. Eastern CONUS troughing
is then forecast to support temperatures a few degrees under
the averages for the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Numerous thunderstorms can be expected as a cold front crosses
the region this afternoon/early evening. VCTS and tempo TS were
included for terminals with the most likely timing.

VFR will return in the wake of the showers and thunderstorms,
although with clearing and winds calming, some pre-dawn fog
could develop. This will likely be dependent on the extent and
amount of rainfall this evening.

Surface flow will generally remain from the west at 10kts with
occasional gusts to 15kts. Winds will then calm tonight as high
pressure begins to build in.

.Outlook...
Widespread restriction potential returns with a late Tue/early
Wed cold front.
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.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$