Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 260549 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 149 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. A SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... ANOTHER PLEASANT AND WARM DAY AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...LOW LEVEL FORCING...OR MOISTURE...WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE SCHC/CHC RANGE. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS STABLE TONIGHT...SO HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER. ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON AS HIGHER SURFACE TDS WEDGE IN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL INCLUDE THE MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THE BEST LOCATION FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS NEGLIGIBLE...BUT WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND LOW LEVEL FORCING...THUNDERSTORMS COULD POP UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS THE BOUNDARY. COOLER DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY FILL IN WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THURSDAY IS SETTING UP AS A VERY COMFORTABLE DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. 500H RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN ON SATURDAY. TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY WITH A STRONG FLOW FROM THE SOUTH. WILL NEED TO INCLUDE A LOW POPS CHANCE FOR CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE. RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY. THE MIDWEST SYSTEM AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO FILTER OVER THE OHIO TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOG IS EXPECTED AT ANY SITE THIS MORNING AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAIN RATHER WIDE...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS FAILED TO ESTABLISH ITSELF TO THIS POINT. AS SUCH...RECENT LOW HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES LIKELY AT ALL SITES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AS THE MOISTURE PROFILE IMPROVES AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. FRIES OUTLOOK.../MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY/... A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION ON WED...BUT WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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