Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 301034 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 634 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF PITTSBURG WILL EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LOWER HUMIDITY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO ADJUST FOR POPS AND QUICKER MOVEMENT OF FRONT. WIND SHIFT WITH FRONT IS THROUGH PITTSBURGH AND WILL CROSS RIDGES AROUND 12Z. MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS INTO EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA AT 09Z. BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST AHEAD OF FRONT WILL EXIT RIDGES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR WORKING IN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT DROPPING TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE UNDER CLEAR SKIES. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL VALUES WITH LOWER HUMIDITY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING FAST A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH A REINFORCING WEAK COLD FRONT SATURDAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY BUT LEFT OUT POPS FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TIMING UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BROAD EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPS MUCH OF THE TIME...THOUGH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ADVANCING THROUGH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COULD PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN TOWARD MID WEEK. MADE DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS TO NUDGE THE ENSEMBLE BASED FORECAST SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A NARROW BAND OF MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED NEAR AN EXITING COLD FRONT E OF PIT EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SCT DIURNAL CU UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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