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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 291804
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
204 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure will bring rain to our region for the
rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The afternoon update included the addition of a wind advisory for
the higher elevations, and immediate downslope areas. The flash
flood watch for Eastern Preston, Tucker, and Garrett Counties was
continued.

Deep, mature, stacked low pressure continues to spin over the Mid
Ohio Valley with the surface occluded front analyzed as curving
across East Central Ohio and Western WV. The systems mid level dry
slot swept over the eastern zones and shunted widespread rain
east, and northward. The Atlantic moisture stream is still
expected to redevelop generally north of the PA turnpike turnpike,
so categorical POPs for showers across those areas was maintained
for the night with no problems anticipated for those areas.

Convective development into Tucker, Garrett, and Preston counties
will provide the main heavy rain/high water threat into Friday
given flash flood guidance and upslope enhancement; hence, the
continued flash flood watch after last nights band of 2 to 3 inch
rainfall on the eastern slopes.

In addition, shallow thunderstorms along the aforementioned front
continue to pose a slight severe threat, with limitations imposed
by instability questions. Areas west and south of Pittsburgh
continue to be monitored given the magnitude of shear on the
eastern flank of the parent low.

The potential for high elevation and downslope wind gusts from
roughly the Morgantown-to-Latrobe vicinities and eastward is
sufficient for the inclusion of an overnight wind advisory in the
afternoon package. Low inversion levels on model soundings and low
level jet expectations may be limited by wind orientation and
degraded mixing, but given the magnitude and projected height of
the low level jet, this headline was initiated.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Showers and gusty wind will linger into Saturday as the nearly
stationary mature low pressure system gradually fills.

As the low dislodges and slowly creeps northward Saturday, rain
will become increasingly scattered. No real changes were made for
this forecast period other than to tweak POPs and temperature
based on Superblend guidance.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Building high pressure is forecast to return drier and warmer
weather as the week progresses. Superblend guidance, tweaked for
POP continuity, was also used for this period.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper low aloft will move bands of showers across ports into the
evening, with variable conditions in and out of the bands. In
general deeper moisture in place at KDUJ where IFR should remain
in place through much of the period. Elsewhere areas of MVFR will
gradually improve to VFR overnight into Friday as drier air is
wrapped into and around the upper low. Strengthening pressure
gradient will strengthen winds with gusts over 20kts most
locations through the afternoon, and possible gust toward 30kts at
KLBE in downslope..


.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Scattered restrictions can be expected into Monday as the upper
level low lingers, then slowly lifts north of the region.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Friday FOR
     MDZ001.
     Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon FOR MDZ001.
OH...None.
PA...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Friday FOR
     PAZ073>076.
WV...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon EDT Friday FOR
     WVZ510>514.
     Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon FOR WVZ512>514.
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&&

$$
15/10