Area Forecast Discussion
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608 FXUS61 KPBZ 280548 AAC AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 148 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A series of crossing disturbances will keep rain in the forecast into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Continue to monitor showers popping up near Mason-Dixon line in Southwestern PA. These showers are lining up along the returning front, which is drifting northward ahead of the next upper level wave. Will adjust PoPs and clouds in the south, and update overnight temperatures. Models now showing showers, and possibly a few storms, reaching the area a bit faster as the surface low speed has increased just a bit. Have increased PoPs faster, particularly over the south and increased cloud cover as well. A series of upper level impulses will move across the south today, with the strongest reaching my southwestern zones as afternoon approaches. The wave of energy will be accompanied by the surface wave, which reaches Southern Ohio by early afternoon, and then slides eastward near MGW by the evening. Highest PoPs and QPF will be located over the southern half of the area. Clouds and rain will keep temperatures lower then the past few days.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Models continue to struggle with the placement and amount of the heaviest rainfall tonight. Some of the ops models appear to have convective feedback problems this evening and overnight as the surface low moves to the east and the trailing upper level trough swings through. It still looks that the best chance for heavier rainfall will be confined to the locations near the Mason- Dixon line this evening and possibly into early Friday morning. Additionally, convection coverage and strength remains in question due to all the cloud cover and rain prior to the passage of the low and aforementioned trough. The upper level system will exit the forecasting area Friday morning, decreasing POPs northwest to southeast across the region. Multiple shortwaves will cross the region Friday night and Saturday, keeping in shower and thunderstorm chances through the period.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A series of shortwaves moving through the weak trough over the eastern CONUS will support periodic rain chances and seasonal temperatures into Monday. A weak bubble of surface high pressure looks to bring warm temperatures with little chance for showers Tuesday and Wednesday. A modified Superblend was used for much of the extended period. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions are expected at most sites through the TAF period. Early this morning restrictions were contained to MGW, and expect this will be the case again tomorrow morning with restrictions in fog. The chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase Thursday, with MGW the only site with enough confidence to include prevailing rain. All other terminals will have at least a chance of showers, with enough confidence in thunder to include VCTS from Pittsburgh and to the east. .OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Broad upper troughing should maintain periodic restriction potential through Monday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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