Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 280548 AAC
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
148 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016
A series of crossing disturbances will keep rain in the forecast
into early next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Continue to monitor showers popping up near Mason-Dixon line in
Southwestern PA. These showers are lining up along the returning
front, which is drifting northward ahead of the next upper level
wave. Will adjust PoPs and clouds in the south, and update
Models now showing showers, and possibly a few storms, reaching
the area a bit faster as the surface low speed has increased just
a bit. Have increased PoPs faster, particularly over the south and
increased cloud cover as well. A series of upper level impulses
will move across the south today, with the strongest reaching my
southwestern zones as afternoon approaches. The wave of energy
will be accompanied by the surface wave, which reaches Southern
Ohio by early afternoon, and then slides eastward near MGW by the
evening. Highest PoPs and QPF will be located over the southern
half of the area. Clouds and rain will keep temperatures lower
then the past few days.
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.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Models continue to struggle with the placement and amount of
the heaviest rainfall tonight. Some of the ops models appear to
have convective feedback problems this evening and overnight as
the surface low moves to the east and the trailing upper level
trough swings through. It still looks that the best chance for
heavier rainfall will be confined to the locations near the Mason-
Dixon line this evening and possibly into early Friday morning.
Additionally, convection coverage and strength remains in question
due to all the cloud cover and rain prior to the passage of the
low and aforementioned trough.
The upper level system will exit the forecasting area Friday
morning, decreasing POPs northwest to southeast across the region.
Multiple shortwaves will cross the region Friday night and
Saturday, keeping in shower and thunderstorm chances through the
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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A series of shortwaves moving through the weak trough over the
eastern CONUS will support periodic rain chances and seasonal
temperatures into Monday. A weak bubble of surface high pressure
looks to bring warm temperatures with little chance for showers
Tuesday and Wednesday. A modified Superblend was used for much of
the extended period.
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at most sites through the TAF period.
Early this morning restrictions were contained to MGW, and expect
this will be the case again tomorrow morning with restrictions in
fog. The chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase
Thursday, with MGW the only site with enough confidence to
include prevailing rain. All other terminals will have at least a
chance of showers, with enough confidence in thunder to include
VCTS from Pittsburgh and to the east.
.OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Broad upper troughing should maintain periodic restriction
potential through Monday.