Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 150403 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1203 AM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A crossing front is expected to bring showers and gusty wind on Sunday afternoon. Much cooler weather will start the new week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Stratus has developed in SE upslope flow near DUJ and Garrett county MD. This should erode overnight as the flow veers to the SW. Otherwise, dry weather will persist through early Sunday as high pressure slides eastward. A strong trough advancing out of the Midwest is progged to drive a cold front across the area Sunday afternoon, with showers likely. Mentioned just a slight chance of thunderstorms with limited instability. Models continue to vary a bit on frontal timing, so have generally persisted with an overall later passage as per a compromise of deterministic trends. Gusty wind is also expected with the front and possibly with any of the shallow convection. Given the strength of the wind field, have introduced a "damaging gust" potential to the Hazardous Weather Outlook.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Cool NW flow and a crossing upper trough should maintain shower chances mainly N of PIT Monday. Patchy frost is possible Monday night under building high pressure, but uncertainty due to lingering stratocu and the end of the growing season preclude a forecast mention. Early week temperature is forecast 5-10 degrees below average. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A large area of high pressure across much of the Ern CONUS should maintain dry weather and moderating temperature through the week. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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IFR stratus at DUJ in SE upslope flow should erode overnight as the flow veers SW. Otherwise, eroding high pressure will maintain VFR tonight. An approaching low level jet ahead of an approaching cold front should also result in a LLWS potential early this morning. Deterioration to MVFR is expected with the approach and passage of the cold front on Sunday afternoon and evening. Local gusts of 35 to 45 kt are possible with showers and FROPA. .Outlook... Restrictions, primarily due to MVFR stratocu, will be possible into Monday as cold advection intensifies in the wake of the front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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