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434
FXUS61 KPBZ 280650
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
250 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Flooding and isolated damaging wind risks will be possible
again today. Drier weather is expected Sunday, followed by
another active period Monday to Tuesday. Temperatures return to
near normal and conditions trend slightly drier mid-week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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KEY MESSAGES:

- Warm overnight temperatures continue.
- Downburst wind and flooding threats in the afternoon/evening

---------------------------------------------------------------

A few scattered showers continue to cross the area early this
morning, but these continue to diminish. Localized fog
development is possible through dawn. Overnight low temperatures
remain roughly 10 degrees above average.

A cold front crossing southern Ontario will drag a WSW to NE
oriented cold front through our region today. This boundary
will serve as the main focal point for convective initiation
this afternoon, initially along the I-80 corridor before
convection shifts southward with the front. Ensembles continue
to advertise plentiful instability (1500-2500 J/kg of sfc-based
CAPE) in a low-shear environment. A bit more dry air aloft,
along with potential for 600-800 J/kg of DCAPE, will present an
isolated downburst wind threat once again. PWAT values also
remain high, which indicates potential for more heavy rainfall
and localized flash flooding with any slower-moving or
backbuilding storms. WPC has maintained a Marginal Risk for
excessive rainfall across most of the area.

There is some good news, however: cloud coverage and rain will
help mitigate high temperatures. This will be our first day
in a week without heat-related headlines.

The passage of the boundary and the diurnal loss of instability
should lead to decreasing convective coverage from north to south
during the evening, with most of the area rain-free by
midnight.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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KEY MESSAGES:

- Mainly dry weather is expected on Sunday.
- Storm and heavy rainfall chances return Monday and Tuesday.
- Temperatures remain above-average, but below heat advisory
  criteria.

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The front is expected to stall just south of the Mason-Dixon
line on Sunday, keeping most showers and storms south of our
area. The exception may be a few showers/storms across the WV
ridges Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will remain above-normal
under increasingly zonal 500mb flow.

The front will begin to lift back northward late Sunday night
into Monday, with showers likely returning to the area Monday
morning. Elevated PWATs with southwesterly flow and plentiful
instability will again mean flooding low-end severe threats are
on the table. WPC has maintained a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall Monday/Monday night. Rain will finally clear with
another cold frontal passage Tuesday, leaving drier conditions
for the remainder of the day. Northwesterly flow and meager cold
advection will keep temperatures closer to seasonal norms
Tuesday afternoon.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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KEY MESSAGES:

- A drier and more seasonable air mass arrives by Wednesday and
  persists through at least Thursday.
-
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The break in our more active pattern continues Wednesday into
Thursday as temperatures return to a more seasonable level under
quasi-zonal flow aloft. Low probability rain chances may return
Thursday afternoon and Friday as more wavy mid-level flow
develops. Details and timing remain unclear at this point.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The conditions across the region feature some lingering stratus
at some terminals with the lingering low level moisture from the
previous days convection. Thus, will expected some areas of IFR
and below cigs due top stratus and some instances of fog dropping
conditions down to MVFR and IFR. Expect this to continue through
dawn.

Heading into the coming day, another day of shower and
thunderstorm development is expected by at least 18Z, with the
bulk of the development increasing by the 20Z. Have put in some
PROB30 to account for this development into the afternoon at
just about all the terminals. Development should wane and
dissipate by 00Z.

The overnight tomorrow night will feature another potential of
low cigs and low vis.

Outlook... There is a lesser potential for afternoon showers/storms
on Sunday as high pressure briefly brushes by to the north.
Showers/storms return again Monday with an approaching cold
front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rackley
NEAR TERM...Rackley
SHORT TERM...Rackley
LONG TERM...Rackley/CL
AVIATION...Milcarek/AK