-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 030042
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
742 PM EST MON DEC 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL FALL TO
BELOW NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A TOTAL DEARTH OF REGIONAL RAIN REPORTS SEEMS TO BE EVIDENT AS
RADAR RETURNS ALL REMAIN ALOFT. THIS IS APPARENT EVEN WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WEAK
WAVE RUNNING DOWN IT. OWING TO THE FACT THAT SATURATION IS POOR
THROUGH THE CLOUD CONDENSATION NUCLEI ACTIVATION TEMPERATURE
RANGE...DROPLETS ARE LIKELY HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING A
CRITICAL MASS TO FALL OUT. AS A RESULT...EVEN SPRINKLES ARE TOUGH
TO MUSTER AT THIS POINT.

THE MODELS DO SUGGEST A STRONG WAVE WILL RUN ALONG THE FRONT WITH
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION FROM WEST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...HOWEVER
OWING TO THE FACT THAT THE BEST INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
OVER WESTERN OHIO...IT WOULD SEEM UNLIKELY TO HAVE DRASTIC
RAMIFICATIONS UPON OUR RATHER HO-HUM DYNAMICAL ENVIRONMENT.
BECAUSE OF THIS AND THE FACT THAT THE IMPACTS OF THE ASCENT WILL
BE MORE ADEQUATELY FELT OVER OHIO...POPS FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN WERE
ACCENTUATED THERE WITH OTHERWISE A BRIEF SPRINKLE FORECAST STILL
LOOKING GOOD. FRIES
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION...WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. WARM
FRONT TO PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
THROUGH BY THURSDAY EVENING BASED ON LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE WARM FRONT WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS...BUT MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKELY JUST ALONG AND BEHIND THE
THE COLD FRONT. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE PROJECTS ONE INCH OF TOTAL QPF BY
THE WEEKEND IN GENERAL FOR THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL HAVE MORE FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. PRECIPITATION WILL FALL INITIALLY AS RAIN
AREAWIDE BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR IN PLACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE DRASTICALLY COOLER THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WITH DAYTIME
MAX TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO LARGELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
WITH SNOW LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUING TO KEEP PCPN OUT OF TAFS, THOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES WILL
BE SCATTERED ABOUT. IF SHOWERS ARE MORE WIDESPREAD IN
COVERAGE...LOW MVFR OR IFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BROUGHT IN
SOME MVFR FOG LATE AS A COMPROMISE. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE
OUT BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RISING CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY.

WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A GREATER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL SYSTEMS WILL THEN DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG
THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY...CONTINUING RESTRICTION CHANCES
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE CONDITIONS DRY OUT
SATURDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$