Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 250302 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1002 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE RIDGES EAST OF PITTSBURGH WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH HAVE CONTINUED INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT THESE VALUES REMAIN BELOW THE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 45 MPH. GUSTS WILL SLOWLY COME DOWN DURING THE EVENING. CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...AND WITH MORE CLOUD COVER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED...THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER OVERNIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...BUT MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH A PASSING SHOWER. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL YIELD MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS AGREE THERE WILL BE A COASTAL STORM BUT HOW FAR WEST PRECIP SHIELD WILL REACH IS THE MAIN ISSUE. WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER. USING A BLEND OF MODELS BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR 6 INCHES ACROSS GARRETT AND TUCKER COUNTIES WHERE HIGHEST QPF WILL BE FORECAST. LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE RIDGES OF WESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE WHERE AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LOOKS TO BE QUITE A SHARP CUTOFF TO NORTHWEST EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW EAST OF PITTSBURGH TO MORGANTOWN. STILL EARLY FOR THIS SYSTEM AND THE TRACK STILL COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT AS WE GET CLOSER TO WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY COASTAL LOW EXITS AND DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE MOVE IN FOR THANKSGIVING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TOWARD -10C.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... NORTHWEST FLOW AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING MID-WEEK SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS THANKSGIVING NIGHT...ENHANCED JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF OUR SE RIDGES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF EARLY FRI...HOWEVER...AS SUBSIDENCE OCCURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY LOWER INVERSION HEIGHTS AND CHOKE OUT THE REMAINING BL MOISTURE BY LATE FRI MORNING. FROM THAT POINT THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS A LITTLE TRICKY AS MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES GREATLY. PRIMARILY STUCK CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE BASED HEAVILY ON THE OPERATIONAL GFS. THIS BRIEFLY HOLDS THE SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE AN UPPER TROF PROPELS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT WILL STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUN RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS. RAISED TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH MEANS THAT RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW COME INTO PLAY...BUT ANY QPF ASSOCIATED LOOKS LIGHT. TAX && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
GENL VFR CONDS ARE EXPD OVRNGT S OF I 80...THOUGH SC CIGS ARE EXPD TO DVLP IN COLD ADVCTN. CU RULE/MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THESE SHOULD LINGER INTO TUE. PORTS N OF I 80 WL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS DVLPG...THOUGH AN INCR TO VFR IS EXPD THRU THE DAY TUE AS MXG LIFTS THE CIG HGT. OCNL WSW WND GUSTS ARND 20 KT WL RMN PSBL THRU TUE WITH A SLOWLY WKNG PRES GRADIENT. OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... COASTAL LOW PRES COULD BRING PSBL RSTRNS INTO MID WK. PERIODIC RSTRNS ARE PSBL INTO THE WKEND WITH SVRL WK CROSSING DISTURBANCES.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MDZ001. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WVZ041. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.