Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 222156 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 556 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracking toward the Southeastern United States will continue to fuel rain chances over the ridges for the start of the new week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... The regional radar 0.5 degree mosaic is indicating a fair amount of virga continuing aloft over the area, even as deeper moisture and large scale jet forcing is being progressively limited more southeasterly by the moment. As a result and with input from the MRMS RALA product, most PoPs have been removed from the forecast for the overnight as layer moisture continues to decline. Thus, with northerly flow continuing, a bit of clearing out, and an already cool air mass in place, temperatures should fall back into the 30s to a large degree across the area. With little additional patter evolution through the day on Sunday, generally partly cloudy skies across at least the northern half of the area should start to allow for a bit of an uptick in temperatures relative to today. Fries && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Meanwhile, the southern low is forecast to dig toward the Southeastern CONUS before progressing up the East Coast during the first half the week. This scenario should confine rain chances to the I 68 vicinity, and over the ridges and eastern CWA periphery during the period. Seasonably cool temperature will begin to moderate by Tuesday as heights rise in response to Western Conus troughing. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Temperature is progged to rise 10 to 20 degrees above average for the latter half of the week as flow amplifies as broad, cold low pressure develops over the western CONUS. Shortwave energy and resulting moist southwest flow aloft will fuel rain chances, best potential for which currently looks to be on Wednesday night with the crossing of a negatively tilted trough axis. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low end VFR and MVFR stratus will continue to degrade conditions this afternoon as will light rain at MGW. By evening, the supporting upper trough is projected to shift east and improve conditions to VFR at all ports via building sfc high. .Outlook... The next chance for general restrictions is expected with mid week low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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