Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 292235 AAA AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 635 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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630PM UPDATE...WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS IN LINE WITH CURRENT RADAR PICS...AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN NUDGED TOWARD LATEST GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION TONIGHT. THIS WAVE...AND INCREASING MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW...WILL ALLOW FOR LOW END SHOWER CHANCES. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED SO DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER FOR TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS USING THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS ADVANCEMENT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES. CONTINUED WITH LOW END POPS FOR SHOWERS AS ORGANIZED UPPER SUPPORT IS LACKING. A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAINLY SOUTH OF PIT SHOULD KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS ON MONDAY...THOUGH WARMING MID LEVELS SHOULD CAP OFF THE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS CAPPING...AND WEAK RIDGING...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE USING THE LATEST GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... H500 RIDGING PATTERN TAKES HOLD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH NO ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS FORESEEN THROUGH SATURDAY. APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO FRIDAY AT LEAST...AND ELECTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EACH DAY. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED AS TIME GOES ON TO DETERMINE THE DAILY PRECIP CHANCES...WITH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY DRY CANDIDATES. MORE CERTAIN IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND HPC GUIDANCE WAS USED IN COMBINATION WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE VALUES. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING WITH A WEST TO EAST INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED AS FRONT DISSIPATES ACROSS REGION LATER TONIGHT...NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY MENTION AT ANY PORT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE WEST. CONTINUED GENERAL VFR CIGS SUNDAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AT BEST WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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