Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 231655 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1255 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Showers are possible again today, mainly east of Pittsburgh, as slow moving upper level low leaves the East Coast. Dry weather will return on Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Previous discussion still highlights the current and forecast atmospheric conditions. Only minor adjustments were made to this time frame - mainly to bump temperatures up a degree based on the latest hi res model guidance where we will see more sunshine. Previous... Upper low will pivot northeastward from the Mid-Atlantic and move over the Atlantic Ocean by late in the day. Models continue to show shortwaves rotating around the low, which will necessitate the inclusion of pops over the eastern half of the area. Highest pops will be confined to the ridges, where the deepest moisture will be located. Atmosphere destabilization looks like a good bet this afternoon, so have continued with the mention of thunder. Expect to see a wide range of temperatures today, from the cool and wet east to the dry and sunny west. Surface ridge will build overhead overnight. Light wind and clear skies should allow for radiational cooling to occur but temperatures should stay close to seasonal normals for lows tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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With strengthening ridge and eastward moving surface high, area finally will see a dry day Tuesday with warmer temperatures. Next slow moving system will bring the risk for showers back into the area on Wednesday. Temperatures will remain warm on Wednesday as well.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Western CONUS troughing/Eastern CONUS ridging is forecast to develop with general west-southwest flow over the Upper Ohio for the latter half of the week. Warm, moist advection will support increasing, shortwave-dependent precip chances as the weekend approaches. With uncertainty in timing of individual shortwaves embedded within the flow, have stayed close to climo POPs, which is similar to a blend of model guidance. With building heights and warm advection, anticipate above average temperatures through the start of next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR is anticipated at all terminals through much of the night, save for some morning river valley fog tomorrow morning. Fog may be more likely to develop where it rains this afternoon, but at this time, generally confined restrictions to KHLG, KAGC, and some brief BR at KZZV based on the latest model guidance. High pressure will provide light wind through the period. .OUTLOOK /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The next chance for restrictions will come with late week low pressure.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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