Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 161907 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 307 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH EARLY THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... EVEN WITH SKIES THAT CLEARED AND YIELDED ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STUCK IN A DEEP RUT. WITH VERY POOR LOW LEVEL MIXING...IT SEEMS QUITE UNLIKELY ANY ADDITIONAL RISE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDOWN THAT WOULD PRECLUDE FAIRLY STRONG FALLS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND DEWPOINTS ARE FAIRLY LOW...AND AS A RESULT...EVEN THOUGH FLOW WILL START TO EDGE UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CRATER WELL BELOW FREEZING YET AGAIN. ACROSS THE AREA...WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ARE ANTICIPATED. FRIES && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES SHOULD LOCK INTO PLACE ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FARTHER TO THE EAST AND FLOW INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO START TO CLIMB INTO THE +2 TO +4C RANGE ON THURSDAY...AND CLOSER TO +4C ON FRIDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SEEMS POISED TO LARGELY SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE CONNECTION AND WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LIKELY TO TRANSIT NORTH OF OUR AREA PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS...NOTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS SEEMED PRUDENT AT THIS JUNCTURE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAMIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM SEEMS LIKELY TO BE A WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND A TEMPORARY SCALING BACK OF TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODIFIED POLAR HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. FRIES && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO DO SIMILARLY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEMS SEEMS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA ROUGHLY MONDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER RETURNING FOR MID-WEEK. OVERALL...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO TURN MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM STRAYING ALL THAT FAR FROM NORMAL...AND KEEP PERIODIC TRENDS FROM DRY TO WET AND BACK UNTIL MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING SEEMS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FRIES && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SOME MAINLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MOISTURE-STARVED FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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