Area Forecast Discussion
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590 FXUS61 KPBZ 240117 AAB AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 817 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Record breaking warmth is expected on Friday, followed by a cold front late Friday night into early Saturday morning which will eventually drop temperatures near normal by Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 820pm update...a rather organized line of showers and iso storms has developed along the southern edge of the weak surface front and just ahead of the rapidly eastward moving shortwave trough. Storm coverage is decreasing as is the intensity, with sunset. Most of the activity is over Eastern Ohio with the upper level support, and expect this to move northeastward this evening with the wave. In addition, the coverage will continue to decrease as the wave picks up speed and forces the surface boundary northward. Have adjusted PoPs using a blend of hires guidance and radar trends. Temperatures have also been modified with a blend of hires guidance. Previous discussion...With the front to the north and southerly winds across the region, the warmest day of the year so far is expected on Friday, with nearly all locations rising into the 70s and an isolated 80 degree reading not out of the question. The current forecast includes record breaking temperatures at all climate locations and dry conditions. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... While there is still some minimal model disagreement in timing of the next cold front, the general consensus shows the front crossing Pittsburgh around sunrise Saturday. The timing should help to dampen the threat for severe weather. Although instability along the cold front will be limited locally, there will still be a threat for strong winds considering the wind shear along the front. SPC has maintained a slight risk for severe weather across most Ohio counties and a marginal risk elsewhere in the forecast area. The bulk of rainfall will have moved east by Saturday afternoon, and a brief lull in showers can be expected before the combination of west-northwesterly winds and colder air allows for some lake enhanced showers to develop Saturday night. Some minimal snow accumulations, less than an inch, will be possible in the favored locations along Interstate 80 and along the PA/WV/MD ridges. As high pressure builds in from the southwest, winds will lose their northerly component and all precipitation will end Sunday morning. While temperatures will remain in the 50s Friday night, temps will fall all of Saturday and Saturday night, eventually bottoming out in the 20s. Seasonal highs around 40 are forecast on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Broad southwest flow aloft is in place for the first portion of the extended period, before a trend towards a troughing pattern towards the end. While guidance generally agrees with this, details on shortwaves and surface systems remain murky, with model disagreement continuing. The flow and increasing moisture with time will support chances for scattered showers Monday and Tuesday. A more significant system appears possible for later Tuesday night and Wednesday, for which likely PoPs were maintained. Once again, this system will produce nealy all liquid, save for some backside snow showers later Wednesday night. Northwest flow activity may linger on Thursday. Made modifications to the SuperBlend guidance to shade more towards continuity. A trend from normal to above normal temperatures will be felt from Monday through Wednesday, before seasonal values return for Thursday. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Looking at a general VFR forecast through the period, with the exception of FKL and DUJ, which may see MVFR cigs this evening. Hit or miss showers, or a brief storm, is possible during the evening at all ports with the exception of MGW and LBE. The best chance to see showers will be a FKL and DUJ, due to their close proximity to the surface front. If restrictions do occur with the activity, they will be short lived. Late tonight, all ports will return to VFR, as the aforementioned surface front moves northward. Only concern for the forecast on Friday will be the strengthening SW winds. Wind gusts of 15 to 25 kts are possible at all ports during the afternoon. .OUTLOOK... Widespread restrictions are likely with the approach and passage of a cold front on Friday night and early Saturday. && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures for climate sites: Thu Fri -------- -------- PIT 70 (1922) 70 (1875,1906) ZZV 64 (2000) 70 (1961) MGW 68 (1996) 75 (1975) DUJ 63 (1985) 60 (1985) HLG 62 (2000) 63 (2016) PHD 69 (1975) 66 (1985) && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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