Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 201734 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 134 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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northweest winds from Canada will provide more comfortable conditions through midweek.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... With noon update, made additional changes to hourly temperature and sky cover forecasts. While regional mosaic does show some showers along the New York-Pennsylvania border, do not expect that these showers will drift south into the local forecast area. Models are portraying a drier day in accordance with minor height rises aloft, behind an exiting shortwave. The drier airmass will make it feel much more comfortable today. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upper trough will remain situated across the Great Lakes through Wednesday before departing to the east and being replaced by weak upper ridging/nearly zonal flow for Thursday. With cooling aloft Wednesday, and one last wave digging southward on western flank of exiting main trough, could see a shower or storm develop with daytime heating. Models are still not in complete agreement with the risk for activity on Wednesday, so will keep PoPs in the low chance/slight chance range. Models generally agree on rising heights and dry conditions on Thursday with temperatures moderating to near or above seasonal averages and humidity levels increasing. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The progressive flow will make any long term forecast difficult, and the models resolve the evolution of a potential tropical system differently. With this in consideration, have opted to stay close to a blend of guidance. By Friday, deeper moisture will support higher PoPs and warming temperatures until an upper level trough deepens over the central CONUS late. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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General VFR conditions through the period. 270 degree winds this afternoon in the 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20kt will weaken near sunset. VFR overnight. Winds will pick up similar to today during the afternoon on wednesday. .OUTLOOK...Low chance of non-VFR Wed thru Sun in shra/tsra except good chance Fri into Fri night with passage of a cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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