Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 270008 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 808 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND END THE SPARSE SHOWER CHANCES AND COOL WEATHER FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN GENERALLY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR AT THIS HOUR...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD WANE QUICKLY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...ALLOWING FOR A DRY OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS SET TO MOVE GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA AROUND 06Z TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLOWLY MODERATING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY INCREASING HEIGHTS AS WELL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL EROSION OF THE CLOUD DECK FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT TOWARD MORNING. EVEN STILL...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN IN THE INTERIM...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GOING INTO A FREE FALL OVERNIGHT. REGARDLESS...SOME LOCATIONS WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE MORE LONGEVITY...WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S OVERNIGHT. FRIES
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES...WILL BEGIN FILLING IN ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE....SWINGING SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL CROSS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE CU DEVELOPMENT AND KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ON FRIDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FILLING OF THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...THEN ABOVE THE AVERAGES...ALTHOUGH INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW COULD LEAD TO DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW STILL MAINTAINS A GRIP ON THE REGION. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN EROSION OF THE STRATO CUMULUS DECK SOUTH TO NORTH AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FEED IN AND THE SUN SETS. STILL...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROF AXIS HAS YET TO TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY REINFORCE COOL AIR ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAINLY NORTH OF KPIT. THIS IS WHERE LOW STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS DROPPING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO AT LEAST IFR WITH PRE-DAWN FOG DEVELOPMENT. WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY AT OR JUST ABOVE FORECAST LOWS...THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE...BUT WOULD RELY HEAVILY ON FURTHER EROSION OF EXISTING CLOUD DECK. TAF ISSUANCE REFLECTS A SOUTH TO NORTH GRADIENT OF STRATO CUMULUS TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERN TERMINALS CONTAINING FOG/BR MENTION AND NORTHERN TERMINALS HOLDING THE LOW CIGS. WITH RAPIDLY CHANGING CLOUD DECK...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS EXACT SCENARIO HOLDING IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. TAX OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... NO EXTENSIVE IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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