Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 292327 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 727 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY LESS HUMIDITY AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 600 PM...MINOR TIMING EDITS TO GRIDS WITH POPS AND SKY...MAINLY TO SLOW DOWN PRECIP ARRIVAL AN HOUR OR TWO GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK APPROPRIATE...AS FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE PREFRONTAL LINE IS ANTICIPATED WITH INSTABILITY LOSS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KEPT THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR NOW BUT WILL REEVALUATE THIS DURING THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... DESPITE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE PROVIDING AN AMPLE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...VERY WARM AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. A LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE FROM THE WEST CURRENTLY RUNNING ALONG THE OHIO INDIANA BORDER IS PROGGED TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING...BUT BY THIS TIME INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND DO NOT FORESEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN ZANESVILLE...BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AND LEAVING MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EAST THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND THOUGH WILL BE RAIN RATES LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHEN THERE IS DEEPER MOISTURE AS THE SETUP LOOKS TO FAVOR WARM RAIN PROCESSES TO DOMINATE...SO ANY AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL BE NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL WATER CONCERNS. THURSDAY WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO NORMALS AND DEWPOINTS BACK DOWN TO THE LOWER 60S/UPPER 50S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT TERM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE IN ITS WAKE. THIS MEANS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN TOWARDS SEASONAL VALUES...WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FRIDAY...SPELLING A PLEASANT AND DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA OPEN TO SHORT-WAVE TROFS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. PRIMARY WAVE LOOKS TO ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING...SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT POPS IN THE CHANCE REALM AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS LIMITED. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND...BUT DRY AIR ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL PRECLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY. MID-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT AS IT CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...WITH A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES. FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR OR EAST OF LBE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ADDED MENTION OF BR AT ZZV IN THE EARLY MORNING AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A SATURDAY COLD FRONT. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

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