Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 170048 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 848 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Well above normal temperatures will continue through the first half of the week with a chance of showers tonight and Monday morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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A weak upper-level shortwave trough is moving east of Lake Erie, pushing showers across our northern fringe. Rain is beginning to fill in over northern Ohio as models suggested earlier. These will stream west to east over the northern 1/3 of the forecast area, trailing the upper trough. Will continue the chance and likely PoPs, mainly north of Pittsburgh, with a tight gradient south of the metro area. Overnight lows will be mild with cloud coverage limiting radiational cooling.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will dominate through Tuesday as a broad ridge sits over the southeast CONUS bringing dry weather and temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above the seasonal levels. Near record / record temperatures were maintained in the forecast as models continue to show good continuity. Anomalous temperatures aloft have been progged for several days now with values outside of the both NAEFS and M-climate values falling within a 3-week window of the forecast day. High pressure will begin to shift east Wednesday but it will be slow as the longwave pattern becomes more meridional. Latest trends have been towards a deeper/slower solution which makes sense given the latest ensemble teleconnection forecasts. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The deep upper trough is progged to continue it`s slow approach through the end of the week, with possible passage over the weekend. This should result in continued shower chances and a gradual cooling trend. Timing details remain uncertain, so again sided close to a NAEFS solution and Superblend guidance through the period to account for these uncertainties. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Still thinking that most significant restrictions will be at FKL/DUJ, closest to the passing shortwave. IFR conditions are still expected here starting later tonight as scattered showers may moisten the column enough to allow ceilings to drop. To the south, with lower rain chances, MVFR is possible at BVI and PIT, otherwise VFR is forecast through the TAF period. Winds should remain at 10 knots or less out of the southwest through the period. .OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The next chance for restrictions will be with a system that enters the region Tuesday night and lingers all the way through Friday, with the greatest chance for restrictions likely to be Thursday and Thursday night. && .CLIMATE... Well above average temperatures are expected through mid week. The best potential for reaching near record or record high temperatures is expected on Tuesday. Below are the Tuesday Oct 18th records and year of occurrence for selected sites. PIT...83 set in 1938 MGW...83 set in 1963 ZZV...81 set in 1964 PHD...83 set in 1968 HLG...79 set in 1950 DUJ...79 set in 1963 && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.