Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 240552
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
152 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016
After a cold front passes through the region overnight, dry
weather and seasonable temperatures are expected for the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
For the overnight update only minor adjustments to sky grids,
remainder of forecast unchanged, previous discussion follows.
Removed all mention of precipitation through the remainder of the
night, despite HRRR/RAP insistence on developing showers behind
the advancing front. Radar is clear at this time and there is not
enough support to generate much behind the front in a stabilizing
environment. However, still expect low clouds to overspread the
region through the night. On Saturday, clouds will slowly decrease
from north to south as drier air sinks in. Overnight low
temperatures were modified slightly based on a hi-res blend. Daytime
highs on Saturday will be about 10 degrees cooler than today`s
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will remain over the region Saturday night into
Sunday. Low pressure developing over the Northern Plains will then
move to the east, bringing another cold front to the region. Models
still are wobbling on the exact arrival time, but rain should move
into the region sometime on Monday and come to an end late Monday
night. Will increase pops again, but still do not have quite enough
confidence to bump up pops to likely at this point. Although
temperatures during this time period will not be as warm as they
have been this week, they will still run a couple of degrees above
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
There could be some leftover showers Tuesday morning behind the
front and Tuesday night is expected to be dry. As winds veer to the
west-northwest on Wednesday, some lake effect rain showers could
develop, as 850mb temperatures will be as low as 5-6 C while Lake
Erie surface temperatures are between 20-25 C. As winds veer to the
north and high pressure moves into the region, another period of dry
weather is expected. Behind Monday`s cold front, an extended period
of slightly below normal temperatures is expected, with highs
generally in the 60s and lows in the upper 40s and 50s.
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --Not much to change in the terminal forecast as a gradual
deterioration to MVFR and IFR is anticipated for the rest of the
night as clouds sag southward with an advancing cold front. While
little precipitation is expected, IFR cigs are prevalent north of
I-80. However, model guidance does suggest that IFR may be less
likely from PIT southward. Will continue to trend in the direction
of IFR but keep those cigs scattered at the southern sites, with
greatest confidence in IFR at KFKL and KDUJ.
Dry advection and subsidence with building high pressure will
ensure VFR after sunrise. Wind will remain light out of the north
through the remainder of the period.
.OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The next chance for restrictions will come with a late Monday
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