Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 240552 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 152 AM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... After a cold front passes through the region overnight, dry weather and seasonable temperatures are expected for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... For the overnight update only minor adjustments to sky grids, remainder of forecast unchanged, previous discussion follows. Removed all mention of precipitation through the remainder of the night, despite HRRR/RAP insistence on developing showers behind the advancing front. Radar is clear at this time and there is not enough support to generate much behind the front in a stabilizing environment. However, still expect low clouds to overspread the region through the night. On Saturday, clouds will slowly decrease from north to south as drier air sinks in. Overnight low temperatures were modified slightly based on a hi-res blend. Daytime highs on Saturday will be about 10 degrees cooler than today`s values. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will remain over the region Saturday night into Sunday. Low pressure developing over the Northern Plains will then move to the east, bringing another cold front to the region. Models still are wobbling on the exact arrival time, but rain should move into the region sometime on Monday and come to an end late Monday night. Will increase pops again, but still do not have quite enough confidence to bump up pops to likely at this point. Although temperatures during this time period will not be as warm as they have been this week, they will still run a couple of degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... There could be some leftover showers Tuesday morning behind the front and Tuesday night is expected to be dry. As winds veer to the west-northwest on Wednesday, some lake effect rain showers could develop, as 850mb temperatures will be as low as 5-6 C while Lake Erie surface temperatures are between 20-25 C. As winds veer to the north and high pressure moves into the region, another period of dry weather is expected. Behind Monday`s cold front, an extended period of slightly below normal temperatures is expected, with highs generally in the 60s and lows in the upper 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Not much to change in the terminal forecast as a gradual deterioration to MVFR and IFR is anticipated for the rest of the night as clouds sag southward with an advancing cold front. While little precipitation is expected, IFR cigs are prevalent north of I-80. However, model guidance does suggest that IFR may be less likely from PIT southward. Will continue to trend in the direction of IFR but keep those cigs scattered at the southern sites, with greatest confidence in IFR at KFKL and KDUJ. Dry advection and subsidence with building high pressure will ensure VFR after sunrise. Wind will remain light out of the north through the remainder of the period. .OUTLOOK /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The next chance for restrictions will come with a late Monday cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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