Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 281251 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 751 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY BUT COLD DAY. CROSSING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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NO MAJOR ALTERATIONS WERE NEEDED FOR THE DAWN UPDATE WITH POCKETS OF CLDS AND FLURRIES EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE. PREVIOUS... STRONG RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AND SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE...BUT IT WILL STILL BE PLENTY COLD HERE. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. EVEN WITH SUNSHINE TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND WAA WILL BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. STILL A CHILLY NIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW PACK. TEMPS WILL START TO SLOWLY RISE AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING REACHING WESTERN OHIO BY MIDDAY. SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST GETS REAL TRICKY. WAA CONTINUES AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL PULL WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RISE TO LEVELS TOO WARM TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT...THIS WARMING MAY ENVELOP THE WHOLE AREA. TEMPERATURE WILL RISE THURSDAY...BUT WITH A VERY COLD GROUND AND LARGE SNOW PACK THE SURFACE ITSELF WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND. THERE IS A HIGH THREAT THURSDAY FOR A PERIOD OF ICE ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA. THE REAL HEADACHE COMES FROM THE FACT THAT SENSORS MAY SHOW TEMPS ABOVE 32...BUT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED GROUND CONDITIONS...RAIN WILL FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM FOR PRECIP TYPE...BUT THE KEY WILL BE TO FIGURE OUT THE SURFACE TEMPS...WHICH WILL BE NO EASY TASK. COLD FRONT QUICKLY CLEARS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PLUNGE BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW AND MID-LEVEL THICKNESS QUICKLY RESPOND AND EXPECT AN ATMOSPHERE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW BY 06Z FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME...MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG CAA AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH...EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVEN WITH LOWERING INVERSIONS AND A FROZEN LAKE ERIE. SNOW GROWTH ZONES RAPIDLY DROP FRIDAY...SO UNTIL THE LOWER LAYERS DRY OUT...THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL FOCUS HIGHEST POPS ON THE RIDGES AND FAR NORTH. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING WITH A STEADY DECLINE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... COLD ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO SATURDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED NEAR -20C BY 00Z SATURDAY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE STEADY OR FALL. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK AS CENTER OF HIGH MOVES INTO REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH. IF CONDITIONS GO CLEAR AND CALM FRIDAY NIGHT MAY GO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO MAINLY THE 20S SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO START THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AREAS OF MVFR/ISOLD IFR CIGS ARE EXPD TO DSPT THIS MRNG AS SBDNC INCRS UNDER BLDG HIGH PRES. VFR SHOULD CONT INTO ERLY THU UNTIL LOW PRES BRINGS RSTRNS AND A WINTRY MIX OF PCPN. .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... RSTRNS ARE LIKELY THRU ERLY FRI AS A CDFNT EXITS. RSTRNS ARE LIKELY AGAIN WITH ADVNG LOW PRES ON SUN.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ 15

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