Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 170048
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
848 PM EDT Sun Oct 16 2016
Well above normal temperatures will continue through the first
half of the week with a chance of showers tonight and Monday
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --A weak upper-level shortwave trough is moving east of Lake Erie,
pushing showers across our northern fringe. Rain is beginning to
fill in over northern Ohio as models suggested earlier. These will
stream west to east over the northern 1/3 of the forecast area,
trailing the upper trough. Will continue the chance and likely
PoPs, mainly north of Pittsburgh, with a tight gradient south of
the metro area.
Overnight lows will be mild with cloud coverage limiting
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.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will dominate through Tuesday as a broad ridge sits
over the southeast CONUS bringing dry weather and temperatures 15
to 20 degrees above the seasonal levels. Near record / record
temperatures were maintained in the forecast as models continue
to show good continuity. Anomalous temperatures aloft have been
progged for several days now with values outside of the both
NAEFS and M-climate values falling within a 3-week window of the
High pressure will begin to shift east Wednesday but it will be
slow as the longwave pattern becomes more meridional. Latest
trends have been towards a deeper/slower solution which makes
sense given the latest ensemble teleconnection forecasts.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The deep upper trough is progged to continue it`s slow approach
through the end of the week, with possible passage over the
weekend. This should result in continued shower chances and a
gradual cooling trend. Timing details remain uncertain, so again
sided close to a NAEFS solution and Superblend guidance through
the period to account for these uncertainties.
.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Still thinking that most significant restrictions will be at
FKL/DUJ, closest to the passing shortwave. IFR conditions are
still expected here starting later tonight as scattered showers
may moisten the column enough to allow ceilings to drop. To the
south, with lower rain chances, MVFR is possible at BVI and PIT,
otherwise VFR is forecast through the TAF period. Winds should
remain at 10 knots or less out of the southwest through the
.OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The next chance for restrictions will be with a system that enters
the region Tuesday night and lingers all the way through Friday,
with the greatest chance for restrictions likely to be Thursday and
Well above average temperatures are expected through mid week. The
best potential for reaching near record or record high
temperatures is expected on Tuesday. Below are the Tuesday Oct
18th records and year of occurrence for selected sites.
PIT...83 set in 1938
MGW...83 set in 1963
ZZV...81 set in 1964
PHD...83 set in 1968
HLG...79 set in 1950
DUJ...79 set in 1963