Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 280520 AAC
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
120 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016
Building high pressure will ensure dry, but cool weather today.
Warmer temperatures on Saturday.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Only some minor changes to the overnight period. Removed Pops as
any precipitation falling is very light and likely just sprinkles
or drizzle. Also increased cloud cover across the south, as the
stratocu deck has covered the entire area. Temperatures have been
updated with a blend of hires guidance.
High pressure and warm advection will decrease cloud cover today,
allowing temperatures to warm just a bit, but still remain below
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level flow will become zonal on Saturday, but we will still
see an influx of warmer air, as the lower and mid-level flow turns
to the southwest. With a lack of a strong push from the upper
levels, the next system will struggle to make much southward
progression late Saturday. Decreased the southward intrusion of
PoPs late Saturday and Saturday night. With the aforementioned
warm air advection, Saturdays highs will be close to 10 degrees
Surface front will finally begin to push southward late Saturday
night and Sunday as the main shortwave crosses the Great Lakes
and eventually the Upper Ohio Valley. Showers will spread over the
entire region Sunday, with the surface boundary reaching the
Mason-Dixon line by afternoon. Upper level support remains weak,
so would think that shower activity would be scattered.
With clouds and rain, temperatures on Sunday will return to near
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper Ohio Valley will be on the top side off strengthening mid
level ridging into Wednesday, with above average temperatures. The
ridge will retrograde mid week, allowing a frontal system to slide
south of the region Thursday. With timing of this system in
doubt, slight chance POPs were included.
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ceilings should remains rather unchanged through the night at most
sites as cold advection ensues overhead and stratocumulus layer
with occasional wind gusts persists. This will mix out by early
afternoon at most sites on Friday with VFR conditions returning to
all sites by late afternoon. Fries
.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
General restrictions are again possible with a Sunday cold front.