Area Forecast Discussion
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500 FXUS61 KPBZ 291411 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1011 AM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will ensure dry weather today before another low pressure system brings rain to the region late Thursday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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With 10am update, minimal changes were made to cloud cover and hourly temperature grids as clearing occurs from north to south. High pressure ridge building overhead will maintain dry conditions today and tonight. Thick stratus deck should diminish this morning once daytime mixing takes place, allowing us to warm close to, if not slightly above seasonal averages. Clear skies tonight, albeit not perfect for radiational cooling with some surface wind, should allow for us to cool off early. However, strengthening warm advection aloft should become a limiting factor as we go toward Thursday morning. Thus, a non- diurnal trend is forecast with lows close to seasonal averages.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure should keep the region dry through Thursday morning, with guidance trending even a bit slower with the arrival of precipitation. Still, will increase PoPs to likely by Thursday night as deep, moist, southerly flow in advance of the occluding low supports these values. Broad low pressure will slowly slide eastward through Friday, maintaining rain chances through much of the day. The weakening upper low will shift east by Saturday morning, but lingering low level moisture may keep widely scattered showers possible through the first part of the day before building subsidence brings an end to precipitation. Temperatures will continue to run slightly above seasonal averages through the period, including on Friday, despite rain with strong warm advection expected. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Very little change in the pattern is expected as model guidance continues to show a series of low pressure systems ejecting out of the southwestern CONUS and lifting toward the Ohio/Tennessee valleys. This will maintain at least chance PoPs through midweek outside of dry conditions expected Sunday. With some uncertainty in low track and speed, a blend of guidance was used. Temperatures will generally stay close to averages for early April. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Fairly expansive MVFR cloud deck in place this morning, but latest satellite imagery trends show some breaks/erosion beginning to chip along the northern fringe. Clearing associated with high pressure building in from the north will first find FKL/BVI/DUJ working southward thereafter. All locations expected to achieve VFR near midday. Light north winds will persist through much of today. These will gradually shift easterly by Thursday, but generally remain less than 10kts. Outlook... Restrictions are likely again from late Thursday through Saturday as another broad low affects the Upper Ohio Valley. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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