Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 311907 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 307 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND FURTHER WEST ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE NOTHING HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF WITH WEAK SHEAR AND LIFT...CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND SHOULD PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE BASED ON A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE TUESDAY BEFORE THE WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FINALLY GETS ABSORBED BACK INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY. THUS...POPS WERE CONSTRUCTED WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WORKING AGAINST ANY POPS HIGHER THAN CHANCE VALUES ARE THE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-LEVELS BOTH DAYS. GENERALLY EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE MAINLY SUMMER AIRMASS/DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT WILL DISSIPATE EACH EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. AGAIN...WILL KEEP POPS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. THE WARM AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GET VERY CLOSE TO 90 THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE IMPRESSIVE EASTERN CONUS RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES REACHING INTO EASTERN CANADA. CANNOT RULE OUT DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHES A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC. STILL...LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... GENERAL VFR INTO TUESDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT COVERAGE NOT ENOUGH FOR MENTION AT ANY PORT. PATCHY MVFR TO IFR FOG EXPECTED BEFORE SUNRISE OVERNIGHT...BURNING OFF BY 14Z TUESDAY. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... GENERAL VFR EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MORNING FOG THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.