Area Forecast Discussion
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425 FXUS61 KPBZ 282143 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 543 PM EDT Sun May 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Shower and thunderstorm chances continue until the passage of the cold front overnight. Weak high pressure will keep Memorial Day mostly dry with seasonable temperatures.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Thunderstorm activity has blossomed in area of 1500j/kg CAPE and modest shear, supporting some strong to severe storms as they cross the surface warm front. Have bumped up PoPs with ongoing and forecast activity, based on radar and hi res guidance. Most organized convection will remain in the vicinity of the warm front, with scattered showers and storms elsewhere. Heavy rain will be possible, with slow storm movement/training cells. Will maintain the flash flood watch as is for now, but threat should end rather quickly with the approach of the cold front tonight. Cold front will cross the region overnight, with the bulk of the precipitation over by 6-9z. Temperatures will remain above seasonal levels tonight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... After lingering showers exit early, mostly dry weather is expected on Monday as high pressure arrives. A shortwave will skim the region to our north Monday night and Tuesday, bringing another front across the region that should provide some scattered showers. Held off on thunder for Tuesday for now as models disagree on stability, however steepening lapse rates may allow for it. Precipitation coverage will wane behind the boundary Tuesday night. Fairly seasonable temperatures are expected. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The Great Lakes/northeast CONUS trough will remain through the end of the week, with periodic shower chances from shortwaves moving through the flow. By next weekend, the upper pattern becomes more zonal, and a frontal boundary could stall out somewhere near or in our region. This boundary could provide more focused rainfall chances, but its placement remains in question. Temperatures will remain near or just a few degrees below normal. && .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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VFR conditions are expected, outside of any terminal experiencing a thunderstorm through this evening and until a cold front approaches overnight. Cold front will bring a round of precipitation to all sites and a shift in wind direction from southerly to westerly. Deterioration in conditions to MVFR/IFR is expected behind the frontal passage. However, by mid morning, ceilings should scatter out, yielding a return to VFR conditions. .Outlook... Restrictions are possible Tue/Wed with an upper trough.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for MDZ001. OH...None. PA...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for PAZ021-029- 031-073>076. WV...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for WVZ021- 509>514. && $$

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